Chinese Coastal Areas Research Articles

Changes of Chinese Coastal Regions Induced by Land Reclamation as Revealed through TanDEM-X DEM and InSAR Analyses

Chinese coastal topography has changed significantly over the last two decades due to human actions such as the development of extensive land reclamation projects. Newly-reclaimed lands typically have low elevations (<10 m) and often experience severe ground subsidence. These conditions, combined with the more frequent occurrence of extreme sea-level events amplified by global climate change, lead to an increased risk of flooding of coastal regions. This work focuses on twelve Chinese coastal areas that underwent significant changes from 2000 to 2015 in their environments, correlated to relevant land reclamation projects. First, the ground changes between 2000 and 2015 were roughly computed by comparing the TanDEM-X and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation models of the investigated areas. These results indicate that six of the analyzed coastal zones have reclaimed more than 200 km2 of new lands from 2000 to 2015, with five of them in northern China. Second, we focused specifically on the city of Shanghai, and characterized the risk of flood in this area. To this purpose, two independent sets of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data collected at the X- and C-band through the COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) and the European Copernicus Sentinel-1 (S-1) sensors were exploited. We assumed that the still extreme seawater depth is chi-square distributed, and estimated the probability of waves overtopping the coast. We also evaluated the impact on the territory of potential extreme flood events by counting the number of very-coherent objects (at most anthropic, such as buildings and public infrastructures) that could be seriously affected by a flood. To forecast possible inundation patterns, we used the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model. Assuming that an extreme event destroyed a given sector of the coastline, we finally computed the extent of the flooded areas and quantified its impact in terms of coherent structures potentially damaged by the inundation. Experimental results showed that two coastline segments located in the southern districts of Shanghai, where the seawalls height is lower, had the highest probability of wave overtopping and the most significant density of coherent objects potentially subjected to severe flood impacts.

Using neodymium isotope ratio in Ruditapes philippinarum shells for tracking the geographical origin

Geographical traceability of marine bivalves is becoming increasingly important to assure their quality and to defend the interest of consumers and producers. This study verifies the neodymium isotopic ratio (143Nd/144Nd) in Ruditapes philippinarum shells as a tracer of the geographic origin, based on the geochemical aspect that 143Nd/144Nd of their habitats strongly depends on the geology of its catchment areas. The 143Nd/144Nd ratios of clam shells from the Japanese and Chinese coastal areas displayed a heterogeneous pattern from local to international scales, reflecting the geological age of the catchment area. The blind test suggested that a part of Manila clam was sold with mislabeling in the Japanese market, demonstrating the high potential of 143Nd/144Nd to unmask the fraud labeling in a food market. Our findings emphasize the potential of 143Nd/144Nd as a tracer for the geographical origin of marine bivalves, and also as a strong deterrent against mislabeling.

Ocean Energy Development under the Background of Carbon Emissions Peak and Carbon Neutrality in China

The ocean energy resources are abundant in China. The technical potential in Chinese coastal area is more than 70 GW. Thus, the utilization of ocean energy resources is very important for the energy saving and the mitigation of climate change. The Renewable Energy Law implemented since 2010 and the special fund program for ocean energy established in 2011 has advanced great progress of ocean energy technology research, development and demonstration in recent years in China. The ocean energy technologies in China have achieved rapid development under the support of the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Science and Technology and so on. The accumulated capacity of ocean energy is in the international advanced level, but the ocean energy industry is still in early stage. The carbon emissions peak and carbon neutrality strategy put forward in China requires the transition to green energy and electricity, which also provides crucial opportunity for the development of the utilization of ocean energy resources in China. The paper introduces the status of ocean energy technology and industry in China firstly. Then the problems in the development of ocean energy are analysed. The potential of utilization of ocean energy is estimated to support the carbon emission reduction. Finally, the vision and main tasks are given.

Climate Change Projections of Temperature Over the Coastal Area of China Using SimCLIM

Facing the western Pacific Ocean and backed by the Eurasian continent, the coastal area of China (hereafter as CAC) is sensitive and vulnerable to climate change due to the compound effects of land-ocean-atmosphere, and thus is prone to suffer huge climate-related disaster losses because of its large population density and fast developed economy in the context of global warming. Here in this study the near- (2040), mid- (2070), and long-future (2100) mean, minimum, and maximum temperature (Tmean, Tmin, and Tmax) projections based on the statistic downscaling climate prediction model (SimCLIM) integrated with 44 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of CMIP5 under three representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) scenarios are evaluated over CAC and its sub-regions. Multi-model ensemble of the selected GCMs demonstrated that there was a dominating and consistent warming trend of Tmean, Tmin, and Tmax in the Chinese coastal area in the future. Under RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, the annual temperature increase was respectively projected to be in the range of 0.8–1.2°C for 2040, 1.5–2.7°C for 2070, and 1.6–4.4°C for 2100 over the entire CAC. Moreover, a spatial differentiation of temperature changes both on the sub-regional and meteorological station scales was also revealed, generally showing an increment with “high south and low north” for annual average Tmean but “high north and low south” for Tmin and Tmax. An obvious lower increase of Tmean in the hotter months like July and August in the south and a significant sharper increment of Tmin and Tmax in the colder months such as January, February, and December in the north were expected in the future. Results derived from this study are anticipated to provide insights into future temperature changes and also assist in the development of target climate change mitigation and adaptation measures in the coastal area of China.

Geotechnical parameter study and solidification of Marine Sediment for Road Engineering

The Chinese coastal areas are the environment of multiple activities, and navigation occupies an important place. Dredging operations maintain access to port structures carried out regularly. These sediments’ fate is problematic in Jiangsu province due to significant contamination of organic and mineral pollutants. A company called Nature Way aims to solve this problem. It is deeply committed to the treatment and use of sediment dredged from the seabed and uses proprietary solidification technology to transform all kinds of silt waste into new engineered materials that replace sand and sand. Gravel and traditional techniques and can be used as foundation materials for various projects in loose soil areas. In this work, we first studied the physic-chemical characterization of raw materials sediments supplied by Nature Way Corporation from Jiangsu province. Secondly, we have to mix the raw sediment and the solidifying agents and test the mechanical performance at 3%, 5% and 7% in a time interval of 7 days, 14 days, and 28 days. Finally, we have to measure the (CBR) “California Bearing Ratio” after 28 days, mix with the binder at 3%, 5%, 7%.

Climate change impacts on the future offshore wind energy resource in China

Chinese offshore wind energy sector is experiencing a rapid growth. It is expected that China will become the world leader in terms of installed offshore wind energy capacity in the upcoming years. A multi-model ensemble of eight simulations from CORDEX project was considered to evaluate future offshore wind energy projections along the Chinese coast under the RCP8.5 warming scenario. Furthermore, offshore wind energy resource was classified attending to the richness of the resource, stability of the resource, risk and economic factors. The reliability of the CORDEX multi-model ensemble was analyzed by comparing CORDEX wind speed with two different datasets: in-situ data from oceanic buoys and ERA5 database. A general wind power density decrease was observed for the near future and the far future. At seasonal scale, differences were found depending on the season. Thus, a clear reduction was projected during spring, whilst increases were observed in wide areas during winter or autumn. Regarding the classification of the future offshore wind energy resource for the upcoming decades, most of the Chinese coastal area was defined as good or excellent due to its high offshore wind energy richness that compensate the low values on stability of the resource and risk factor.

Tsunami Hazard Assessment Along Chinese Coast Using Scaling Relations Developed for Tsunami Prediction

Potential tsunamis in the western Pacific Ocean pose great threats to the Chinese coastal areas. Among all possible tsunami source regions, the Manila subduction zone draws the most attention and there have been many research works on the tsunami hazards in the South China Sea. In this study, we evaluate the tsunami hazard along the Chinese coast by investigating more potential sources, including the subduction zones of Manila, Ryukyu, Nankai, Izu–Bonin and Mariana. Two tsunami scenarios are considered for each subduction zone, a worst scenario of earthquake magnitude 9.0 and a scenario of largest earthquake magnitude known in history in this zone. Earthquake source parameters are calculated using scaling relations that have been shown to be suitable for tsunami generation. Our results show that for the Chinese coast, tsunami hazards from the Manila and Ryukyu subduction zones are severe in the worst scenarios, and tsunami hazards from the Nankai, Izu–Bonin and Mariana subduction zones are mild. Using the largest earthquake magnitude in history, tsunami hazards from all the investigated subduction zones are almost negligible. Through a sensitivity test on earthquake magnitude, we find that earthquakes of magnitude of 8.5 or larger in the Manila and Ryukyu subduction zones cause severe tsunami hazard along the Chinese coast with wave amplitude over 2 m.

The Impact of Financial Assets Investment on Enterprise Performance—Evidence From Listed Manufacturing Firms in Coastal Region of China

Suo, L.L.; Yang, K.Z., and Ji, H., 2020. The impact of financial assets investment on enterprise performance—Evidence from listed manufacturing firms in coastal region of China. In: Qiu, Y.; Zhu, H., and Fang, X. (eds.), Current Advancements in Marine and Coastal Research for Technological and SociologicalApplications. JournalofCoastalResearch, Special Issue No. 107, pp. 398-402. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.Using the data of A-share listed companies in Chinese coastal areas from 2008 to 2018, this paper compares the differences of financial asset investment level between coastal areas and inland areas, and empirically analyses the impact of financial asset investment on business performance. The research finds that: (1) the regional attributes of enterprises will affect the level of financial asset investment. In the coastal areas with relatively developed economy, there may be more financial assets investment due to less financing constraints. (2) The investment of financial assets may affect the performance of enterprises.

The Impact of Controlling Shareholders' Share Pledge on Enterprise's Innovation Investment—Evidence from Listed Firms in Coastal Region of China

Yang, K.Z.; Li, M.Y., and Suo, L.L., 2020. The impact of controlling shareholders' share pledge on enterprise's innovation investment—Evidence from listed firms in coastal region of China. In: Qiu, Y.; Zhu, H., and Fang, X. (eds.), Current Advancements in Marine and Coastal Research for Technological and Sociological Applications. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 107, pp. 408-412. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.Utilizing the data of A-share listed companies in Chinese coastal areas from 2008 to 2017, this paper empirically analyses the relationship between the pledge of controlling shareholders' equity and the enterprise innovation. The results show that: (1) Controlling shareholders' share pledge will restrain innovation investment, but this negative impact will only play a role when the share pledge rate is high; (2) After subdividing the nature of property rights, it is found that the restraint of controlling shareholders' share pledge on enterprise innovation is more significant in coastal non-state-owned enterprises than in state-owned enterprises.

Clinical Analysis of BRAFV600E Mutation and Its Correlation With Sonographic Image Characteristics in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma in Chinese Coastal Areas.

This study analyzed the characteristics of BRAFV600E mutation in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) in Chinese coastal areas. We intended to identify noninvasive methods to determine BRAFV600E status in thyroid nodules prior to surgery. BRAFV600E mutation and the sonographic characteristics of thyroid nodules were investigated in 670 PTC patients in our hospital. We aimed to determine the relationship between BRAFV600E mutation and the clinicopathological and sonographic imaging characteristics of PTC. The mutation rate of the BRAFV600E was 78.2%. BRAFV600E mutation was significantly associated with central node (univariate analyses, P = .005; multivariate analyses, P < .001, odds ratio [OR] = 10.255) and lateral node metastases (univariate analyses, P = .001; multivariate analyses, P < .001, OR = 22). It was less frequent in PTC coexisting with Hashimoto's thyroiditis (univariate analyses, P = .016; multivariate analyses, P < .001, OR = .034). Nodules without blood flow had a significantly higher mutation rate of BRAFV600E in PTC patients (univariate analyses, P = .026). BRAFV600E mutation was significantly associated with high suspicion in the Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System 5 (univariate analyses, P = .004; multivariate analyses, P = .014, OR = 6.456). Our results strongly suggest that BRAFV600E mutation plays a potential role in lymph node metastasis (central node metastasis, OR = 10.225; lateral node metastasis, OR = 22). Some sonographic imaging features might be helpful in estimating the status of BRAFV600E preoperatively.

Wetland expansion on the continental shelf of the northern South China Sea during deglacial sea level rise

To identify environmental causes for past changes in vegetation in subtropical East Asia, we present carbon isotope compositions of plant-wax n-alkanes and provide estimates of the C4-plant contribution across the past four glacial terminations and interglacials, based on cores recovered from the northern South China Sea. Our results show a comparable C4-plant contribution between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Holocene. An increase of the C4-plant contribution by 15–20% is found for Terminations IV, II and I relative to subsequent interglacial peaks, coeval with an expansion of Cyperaceae and Poaceae. In contrast, Termination V reveals a lower C4-plant contribution than Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11c. The data exhibit a long-term trend, with a stepwise increase of the C4-plant contribution across interglacials MIS 11c, 9e, 7e and 1. We suggest that no substantial changes in humidity levels over glacial-interglacial cycles occurred facilitating a similar C3/C4-plant ratio for the LGM and the Holocene. Instead, deglacial sea-level rises caused an extensive development of floodplains and wetlands on the exposed continental shelf, providing habitats for the spread of C4 sedges and grasses. The progressive subsidence of Chinese coastal areas and the broadening of the continental shelf over the late Quaternary explains the nearly absence of C4 plant occurrence during Termination V and a gradual increase of the C4-plant contribution across interglacial peaks. Taken together, changes in coastal environments should be considered when interpreting marine-based vegetation reconstructions from subtropical Asia.

Specialization and Diversification of the Marine Industry and Marine Economic Growth: An Example from Chinese Coastal Areas

Song, M.; Wang, Q.; Wang, S., and Zhou, L., 2021. Specialization and diversification of the marine industry and marine economic growth: An example from Chinese coastal areas. Journal of Coastal Research, 37(1), 203–215. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.With an increasing shortage of land resources and increasing pressure regarding population and environment, many countries and regions have turned their attention toward oceans. Based on the externality theory, this study innovatively examines how specialization and diversification affect marine economic growth. Based on the panel data of 11 Chinese coastal provinces from 2006 to 2014, the article use location entropy and diversification indexes to measure the specialization and diversification of marine industry. The study analyzes both linear and nonlinear relationships between specialization and diversification and marine economic growth. The empirical results show that both specialization and diversification have a positive influence on marine economic growth; however, diversification was found to play a more important role. This study specifically studied the differences in effects on regions with different industrial scales. The findings show that there are different U-shaped nonlinear relationships between specialization and diversification and marine economic growth under different industrial scales. Finally, this article offers implications of the study and corresponding policy recommendations for restructuring the marine industry in each area.

The Development Level Comprehensive Evaluation and the Regional Differentiation Characteristics Analysis of Shipbuilding Industry Agglomeration in Chinese Coastal Areas

Jin, R.; Guo, J., and Li, F., 2019. The development level comprehensive evaluation and the regional differentiation characteristics analysis of shipbuilding industry agglomeration in Chinese coastal areas. In: Li, L.; Wan, X.; and Huang, X. (eds.), Recent Developments in Practices and Research on Coastal Regions: Transportation, Environment and Economy. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 98, pp. 203–206. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.Industrial cluster is the phenomenon of the agglomeration of closely linked economic entities in a certain region. The phenomenon of industrial cluster is more and more obvious in the international shipbuilding industry. Cluster analysis has become an important strategic tool for the development of shipbuilding industry in various regions. Industrial clusters have many advantages, such as reducing production costs, strengthening collaborative innovation, creating market brands, and improving market competitiveness, which has been proved to be an efficient form of production organization by many practices at home and abroad. Influenced by the international financial crisis, the international shipping market is in a downturn. Taking Jiangsu shipbuilding industry cluster as an example, this paper constructs a complex network map of shipbuilding industry cluster. Then, this paper quantitatively evaluates the agglomeration degree of shipbuilding industry clusters in coastal areas by using the location entropy coefficient. Finally, this paper examines the characteristics of regional differentiation of ship industrial structure in coastal provinces.

Focusing on rapid urbanization areas can control the rapid loss of migratory water bird habitats in China

Over 240 migratory water bird species depend on China's 18,000 km coastline as a vital stopover area. However, the rapid loss of natural wetlands has threatened this seasonal water bird migration over the last few decades. In the present study, to improve our understanding of the pattern and amount of habitat loss in key stopover areas (KSAs) and the spatial covariance between habitat loss and economic development, we conducted a spatially explicit evaluation of coastal habitat loss in KSAs and explored its relationship with social and economic dynamics along the China coast by integrating high-spatial resolution satellite imagery with an updated coastal water bird investigation data set. The remote sensing survey detected a habitat loss percentage of 19.4% in the KSAs during 2000 and 2010. Aquaculture, urbanization, and land reclamation were responsible for the most severe disturbances to coastal habitats. These results demonstrate that the losses of wetland habitats in the KSAs in Chinese coastal areas are more severe than those in other coastal areas even though more protective measures have been implemented in these areas. Risk-based analysis showed that the risk of habitat loss was greatest in undeveloped regions with rich natural wetland and large populations, thereby demonstrating the critical importance of shifting the focus of water bird conservation to these regions to ensure the conservation of migratory water birds in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway. These findings disagree with the hypothesis that more habitats are lost when the economy is more developed. Therefore, we suggest that focusing conservation decisions on areas undergoing urbanization might improve the effectiveness of conservation measures given the pressures due to various forms of wetland exploitation.

Experimental study on factors affecting the physical and mechanical properties of shell lime mortar

Shell lime is an building material widely used in ancient buildings in Chinese coastal areas, yet the relationship among the constituents and mechanical properties of shell lime remains poorly understood. This paper aims to study the factors that influence the properties of shell lime mortar. Laboratory tests were conducted on shell lime samples to investigate the properties of shell lime mortar and the influences of the water-lime ratio, sand-lime ratio, curing ages, and the addition of glutinous rice. The results show that the hydraulic component β-CS can be generated in shell lime calcined in the laboratory. The sand-lime and water-lime ratios have major impacts on the disintegration index, shear strength and compressive strength of shell lime mortar, which can also be enhanced by adding glutinous rice.

Occurrence and distribution of parabens and bisphenols in sediment from northern Chinese coastal areas

Despite high production and usage of parabens and bisphenols, little is known about their spatiotemporal distribution in the marine environment. In this study, we determined the concentrations of several parabens and their metabolites as well as bisphenol analogues in sediment collected from coastal areas of northern China. All sediment samples, including surface sediment and sediment cores, contained at least one of the parabens analyzed, and the total concentrations of parabens (ΣPBs; sum of six parabens) ranged from 1.37 to 24.2 ng/g dw (geometric mean: 3.30–6.09 g/g dw), which was comparable to or slightly higher than those found for the total concentrations of five detectable bisphenols (ΣBPAs; geometric mean: 2.18–4.61 ng/g dw). 4-hydroxybenzoic acid, a common metabolite of parabens, was found in all samples at concentrations in the range of 6.85–437 ng/g dw, which was one order of magnitude lower than those found for benzoic acid. Methyl-, ethyl-, and propyl-parabens were the predominant paraben analogues, collectively accounting for >88% of ΣPBs. Bisphenol A and bisphenol F were the two major bisphenols, collectively accounting for >86% of ΣBPAs. We also examined vertical profiles in concentrations of target analytes in sediment cores. The sediment core from the Shandong Peninsula showed a gradual increase in the concentrations of several parent and metabolic parabens as well as bisphenols during the past decade. Relatively higher concentrations of parabens and bisphenols were found in sediment cores collected from industrialized areas. Significant positive correlations were found among the concentrations of parabens in sediment, which suggested the existence of similar sources for these compounds. Overall, our findings suggest that the Bohai Sea coast is moderately contaminated with parabens and bisphenols in comparison to other coastal areas in China or elsewhere.

The legacy of organochlorinated pesticides (OCPs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Chinese coastal seawater monitored by semi-permeable membrane devices (SPMDs)

Semi-permeable membrane devices (SPMDs) were applied to sample some Organochlorinated Pesticides (OCPs), Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) and Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs) from the seawater of 14 Chinese coastal areas. The total concentrations of OCPs (∑16OCPs), PAHs (∑15PAHs) and PCBs (∑35PCBs) were in the ranges of 489.2–2174, 589.4–53,160, and 133.2–3658 ng/g lipid, respectively. The ∑15PAHs varied significantly with the sampling locations, which were far higher in north Chinese coastal areas than in south areas, whereas ∑16OCPs and ∑35PCBs only slightly fluctuated along the entire coast line. Comparing SPMD to grab sampler, it was found that the distribution patterns of the PCBs and OCPs in seawater were generally similar. However, the compositional profiles of the PAHs, PCBs, DDTs and HCHs in SPMDs were slightly different to grab samplers and organisms. The SPMDs accumulated less lipotropic compounds, which are inclined to dissolve in water rather than in organisms.

Ocean acidification and nutrient limitation synergistically reduce growth and photosynthetic performances of a green tide alga &amp;lt;i&amp;gt;Ulva linza&amp;lt;/i&amp;gt;

Abstract. Large-scale green tides have been invading the coastal zones of the western Yellow Sea annually since 2008. Meanwhile, oceans are becoming more acidic due to continuous absorption of anthropogenic carbon dioxide, and intensive seaweed cultivation in Chinese coastal areas is leading to severe regional nutrient limitation. However, little is known about the combined effects of global and local stressors on the eco-physiology of bloom-forming algae. We cultured Ulva linza for 9–16 days under two levels of pCO2 (400 and 1000 µatm) and four treatments of nutrients (nutrient repletion, N limitation, P limitation, and N–P limitation) to investigate the physiological responses of this green tide alga to the combination of ocean acidification and nutrient limitation. For both sporelings and adult plants, elevated pCO2 did not affect the growth rate when cultured under nutrient-replete conditions but reduced it under P limitation; N or P limitations by themselves reduced growth rate. P limitation resulted in a larger inhibition in growth for sporelings compared to adult plants. Sporelings under P limitation did not reach the mature stage after 16 days of culture while those under P repletion became mature by day 11. Elevated pCO2 reduced net photosynthetic rate for all nutrient treatments but increased nitrate reductase activity and soluble protein content under P-replete conditions. N or P limitation reduced nitrate reductase activity and soluble protein content. These findings indicate that ocean acidification and nutrient limitation would synergistically reduce the growth of Ulva species and may thus hinder the occurrence of green tides in a future ocean environment.

Impacts of Storm Wave-induced Coastal Hazards on the Coast of China

The mainland coast of China is 18,000km long and houses more than 50% of its population. There are increasing pressures to develop the Chinese coastal areas for residential, commercial, tourism and recreational purposes. However, the coast of China has been periodically ravaged by tropical cyclones, storm surges and large coastal waves, resulting in heavy losses of coastal economy and human lives. Three individual extreme tropical cyclones occurred in 1956, 1969 and 1994, for example, resulted in the total losses of more than 7,400 human lives and enormous economic damage. The most recent data show that the coastal natural hazards on the coast of China have resulted in annual damage of about US $3 billion to the coastal economy and annual loss of 256 human lives. Few researchers in China have quantitatively assessed impacts of storm waves and high wave runup on the coast of China. This study is designated to quantitatively assess impacts of storm wave-induced coastal hazards on the coast of China based on the most recent coastal hazard data (1989-2016). It is found that the combination of storm-induced high surges and large waves is responsible for all major coastal natural hazards and especially for heavy losses of human lives on the coast of China, and that the storm wave-induced hazard intensity increases spatially from the north to south along the coast and well correlates to wave energy flux.

Uncovering the strategies of green development in a Chinese province driven by reallocating the emission caps of multiple pollutants among industries

This study aims to address the question of reallocating emissions caps on CO2 and four common pollutants (COD, NH3-N, SO2, and NOx) among all the industries to facilitate regional green development. We developed a model by considering emissions caps, economic growth, inter-sector linkage, and the smoothness of industrial structure change comprehensively. The model is applied to the Zhejiang Province, a typical Chinese coastal area that has high level of industrialization but severe environmental issues. By integrating multi-criteria decision analysis, input-output table, and scenario analysis, the model uncovers key sectors with relatively high sensitivity to the reallocation of emission caps, and reasonable solutions for emission caps reallocation among all industries are proposed. The results also indicate the spillover of pollutant emissions will be a crucial issue for some industries. The uncertainty in the model is quantified using a Monte Carlo simulation and the results indicate that industrial re-structuring, economic targets, and emission intensity were the most decisive factors to fulfill the emission caps control in the Zhejiang Province. The sensitivity analysis results implied that the key sectors which need to be significantly adjusted on emissions quotas remain the same in most cases. Finally, the policy implications of the study are explored.