The South China Sea is recognized as an area at high risk of tsunamis. The Manila Trench has long been considered as the regional source of tsunamis that might affect Chinese coastal areas, and considerable analysis of the tsunami hazard has been conducted in this area. However, there has been no consideration of other potential local sources near the coastal area. Thus, the locations of local potential tsunami sources (PTSs) along the southern coast of China and the evaluation of their impact on tsunami hazard assessment require investigation. We identified eight local PTSs for given seismic activity parameters. For the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA), the lower-limit earthquake magnitude was determined as 7.0, based on numerical simulation of tsunami scenarios. Six measured sites in the Pearl River Estuary and Taiwan Strait were selected for PTHA, which were referenced to Macao, Hong Kong, Daya Bay, Shantou, Xiamen, and Quanzhou. The annual rate of tsunami waves exceeding a given height [Formula: see text] was calculated for each site. The results show that the upper-limit earthquake magnitude and the relative geographical positions of the measured site of interest and the PTS are two of the most important factors in the PTHA computation. The probabilities of tsunami waves exceeding a given height [Formula: see text] within 100 years and their return periods were calculated for each site. The results show that the probability of [Formula: see text][Formula: see text]m within 100 years is 30–40% in Xiamen and Quanzhou but 5–10% in Macao and Hong Kong. If the Manila Trench were considered as a regional source, these probabilities would be higher. It is concluded that the tsunami hazard on the southern coast of China is very high and that both regional and local PTSs should be included in any future PTHA.
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