Business As Usual Scenario Research Articles

Scenario Simulation of Urban Land Use and Ecosystem Service Coupling Major Function-Oriented Zoning

Simulations of land use/land cover (LULC) and ecosystem services (ES), which integrate national land policies, reflect the development of land and ecological functions under different scenarios and are crucial for accurately predicting and optimizing urban ecosystem sustainable development. To effectively characterize the urban development trend that complies with urban land policies and spatial differences, we combined major function-oriented zoning (MFOZ) and simulated LULC and ES [including water yield (WY), soil retention (SR), carbon storage (CS), and habitat quality (HQ)] within Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration under multiple scenarios. Based on the improved gray multi-objective optimization (IGMOP) model, the patch-generating land simulation (PLUS) model, and the integrated evaluation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model, three scenarios were designed: business as usual (BAU), economic development (ED), and ecological conservation (EC) scenarios. Results demonstrated higher accuracy with the LULC simulation coupling MFOZ. Under BAU, ED, and EC scenarios, the ecological land (EL) area was 924.99 × 10 4 , 904.45 × 10 4 , and 953.59 × 10 4 hm 2 , respectively. Compared to 2020, it increased by 0.77% and 1.95% under BAU and EC scenarios and decreased by 0.08% under ED scenario. The LULC changes under different scenarios influenced ES changes. Trade-offs occurred between WY&SR and CS&HQ under BAU and ED scenarios (WY&SR increased, CS&HQ decreased), while different ES types synergistically increased under EC scenario. Impervious surfaces and vegetation positively affected WY&SR, while forestland and impervious surfaces positively and negatively affected CS&HQ, respectively. The simulation coupling MFOZ may provide new insights for exploring more accurate ecological patterns, identifying potential sustainable spaces, and determining priority projects.

The Statistic Analysis of Instruments and Temperature Measurement of Freezer Wall Attached by Dry Ice Gel

The need for electrical energy in Indonesia is increasing rapidly, and the use of electrical energy will increase carbon dioxide gas emissions by around 1.3% each year, which causes environmental damage. The electricity usage sector in households is higher than in industry and transportation. The need for electricity in households will increase from 49% in 2018 to 58% in the BAU (business as usual) scenario and 61% in the RK (low carbon) scenario in 2050. The leading cause of the high use of electrical energy in households is the use of cooling equipment such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and freezers. One strategy to increase energy efficiency that can be used in cooling equipment such as freezers is using phase change materials (PCM). The method in this research used phase change material of dry ice gel to maintain the temperature in the freezer although the electricity was off. The results showed that the dry ice gel PCM maintained the temperature under zero degree.

A system dynamics model and analytical hierarchy process: an integrated approach for achieving sustainable solid waste management system.

Waste management in low-income countries faces challenges with an average cost of $35/ton approximately 51% collection efficiency. Despite investments in treatment, processing, and recycling, the system remains unsustainable owing to poor planning and policies. The current analysis of Lahore's solid waste management (SWM) system, selected as a major city of a low-income country as a case study, focuses on collection efficiency and waste generation. However, it neglects the complex and dynamic nature of SWM systems. To capture the complexities and dynamic nature of the SWM system, system dynamic (SD) modeling is proposed for its effectiveness in modeling complex and dynamic systems. Unlike previous attempts at SD modeling that mostly consider only some components of the SWM system with varying success, this study attempts to use a holistic approach by considering all aspects of an integrated SWM system. In addition, this study explores different financial and management policies, highlighting the weaknesses of the system through a quantitative comparison of three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU) which considers the current trends in waste generation and practices of collection and disposal to landfill, (2) waste treatment system (WTS) in which various waste treatment systems are included to reduce burden on landfill, and (3) introduction of user fee with awareness campaigns (UFAC) which encourages community participation towards reduction in waste generation and financially supports the SWM. All three scenarios use four indices: waste generation, waste ending up in landfill, uncollected waste, and annual budget deficit as performance indices. These scenarios were simulated over a 25-year period using an SD model, covering all six components of the SWM system. The BAU scenario shows a 16% increase in waste generation, a 173% increase in landfill waste, an 11% reduction in uncollected waste, and a 64% increase in the budget deficit over the simulation period, indicating an unsustainable SWM system. The WTS scenario exhibits a 16% increase in waste generation, a 155% increase in landfill waste, an 11% reduction in uncollected waste, and a 61% increase in the budget deficit, showing a significant reduction in landfill waste and a slight reduction in deficit but it remains unsustainable. The UFAC scenario, however, results in a 40% reduction in waste generation, a 67% decrease in uncollected waste, an 8% decrease in landfill waste, and a 59% decrease in the budget deficit. These results demonstrate that instituting user fees for SWM services and incentivizing community participation towards waste reduction and segregation can make the SWM system of Lahore sustainable. This SD model provides insights for policymakers, aiding what-if analyses and long/short-term waste management plans for metropolitan cities in low-income countries. To validate the sustainability judgments based on performance indices, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) tool commonly used for ranking policy decisions based on competing criteria, was employed. It considered the same four criteria as in the SD model. The results of the AHP analysis aligned with those of the SD model, ranking the UFAC scenario as the most sustainable option.

Cost Valuation and Climate Mitigation Impacts of Forest Management: A Case Study from Piatra Craiului National Park, Romania

With the intensification of the effects of climate change, the urgent need to address their drivers, especially greenhouse gas emissions, has become essential. In this context, forests offer a robust solution, with their potential to store and mitigate carbon emissions. However, striking a balance is critical given the significant economic contribution of the forestry and wood-based industries, which account for about 5% of Romania’s GDP and employ 6% (around 300 thousand) of its active workforce. This study, conducted in the Piatra Craiului National Park located in Romania’s Southern Carpathians, we utilize the EFISCEN application to generate three distinct 50-year forest evolution scenarios based on harvest intensity, namely Business As Usual (BAU), Maximum Intensity (MAX), and No Harvest (MIN), on two historical different managed forests, i.e., conservation and production. The study aims to guide forest owners in decision making with scenario modeling tools, with the objectives of assessing the forest carbon sequestration potential and evaluating the economic feasibility. In the most probable scenario, the BAU scenario, the growing stock increases from 2.6 million m3 to 3.8 million m3 over 50 years, with a more than 40% increase. Comparing the carbon stock change for all tree harvest scenario types indicates that the MIN scenario has the highest carbon sink capacity in the next 50 years; the BAU scenario is a well-balanced option between carbon sink and wood provision and has an optimal EUR 3.7 million in annual revenue. The MAX scenario can boost the growth and increase the annual revenue from wood by 35% but is effective only for a short time and thus has the smallest calculated revenue in time. Achieving a win–win relationship between carbon sequestration and wood supply is imperative, as well as good planning and scenarios to contribute to climate mitigation and also as provisions for local communities and to sustain the local economy.

Cost of mitigating climate change through reforestation in China

Reforestation is a potentially large-scale approach for removing CO2 from the atmosphere, thereby helping China achieve its goal of carbon neutrality by 2060. Although China has set ambitious national targets, the cost of mitigating climate change through reforestation has yet to be identified across space and time over the next 40 years. We construct spatially disaggregated marginal abatement cost curves for reforestation by modeling the effects of compensation for enhanced CO2 removals on reforestation. We project that carbon prices (compensation) of US$20 tCO2−1 and US$50 tCO2−1 would motivate land users in China to enhance reforestation by 3.35 Mha (2.65%) and 8.53 Mha (6.74%) respectively from 2020 to 2060 relative to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario (127 Mha). Carbon dioxide removals through reforestation between 2020 and 2060 in China would be enhanced by 0.0124 GtCO2/yr (1.7%) at US$20 tCO2−1 or 0.0315 GtCO2/yr (4.3%) at US$50 tCO2−1, relative to the BAU scenario (0.740 GtCO2/yr). The cost potential of carbon dioxide removal demonstrates significant spatial heterogeneity. The top 10 provinces (Yunnan, Sichuan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Hunan, Guangdong, Heilongjiang, Jiangxi, Fujian, and Zhejiang), which comprise 73.19% of low-cost abatement potential, should be identified as priority areas for reforestation. Our results confirm the vast potential for low-cost CO2 removal through reforestation to address China’s carbon neutrality challenges while underscoring that targeting reforestation to regions with the greatest potential for low-cost CO2 removal would significantly reduce the cost burden.

Sustainability Assessment of Coffee Silverskin Waste Management in the Metropolitan City of Naples (Italy): A Life Cycle Perspective

The use of renewable biological resources, including biowaste, within a circular framework, is crucial for the transition to more sustainable production and consumption patterns. By means of life cycle assessment and life cycle costing methodologies, this study compares the environmental and economic performances of two disposal scenarios for coffee silverskin, the major waste from coffee roasting. The business-as-usual (BaU) scenario, currently applied in the Metropolitan City of Naples (Italy), involves silverskin composting, while the proposed alternative scenario explores the valorization of silverskin as a functional ingredient in bakery products. The alternative scenario results are more advantageous since replacing flour with silverskin in bakery products reduces environmental impact by 96% more than replacing synthetic fertilizers with compost in the BaU scenario. Furthermore, in the alternative scenario, coffee roasters halve their silverskin disposal costs, compared to the BaU scenario (447.55 € versus 190.09 €, for 1 ton). Finally, the major environmental burdens are resource use for equipment construction (37% for BaU, 62% for alternative, on average) and electricity consumption (30% for BaU, 67% for alternative, on average), while the highest economic cost is due to personnel (58% for BaU, 88% for alternative, on average).

Environmental Damage of Different Waste Treatment Scenarios by Considering Avoided Emissions Based on System Dynamics Modeling

This study aims to develop a comprehensive model for life cycle assessment and environmental damage cost calculations considering avoided emissions in different waste management scenarios using the system dynamics (SD) approach. Our analysis reveals that under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for the period 2020–2050, the total net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reach 12.5 Mt, with the highest environmental damage cost being USD 689 million. In contrast, an integrated management strategy encompassing recycling, composting, anaerobic digestion, and incineration results in a 195% reduction in net GHG emissions compared to the BAU Scenario. Concurrently, the environmental damage cost drops to USD 277 million, incorporating USD 347 million in savings, leading to a net environmental damage cost of USD −71 million. The findings affirm that accounting for emissions avoided across various treatment methods offers a more accurate estimate of environmental damage costs. Additionally, policies centered on integrated waste management are more likely to achieve sustainability. The study also demonstrates the utility of the SD approach in providing a holistic view of waste management systems and in evaluating the effectiveness of various policy strategies for sustainable waste management.

Evaluating the incentive for soil organic carbon sequestration from carinata production in the Southeast United States

Soil organic carbon (SOC) can be increased by cultivating bioenergy crops to produce low-carbon fuels, improving soil quality and agricultural productivity. This study evaluates the incentives for farmers to sequester SOC by adopting a bioenergy crop, carinata. Two agricultural management scenarios – business as usual (BaU) and a climate-smart (no-till) practice – were simulated using an agent-based modeling approach to account for farmers’ carinata adoption rates within their context of traditional crop rotations, the associated profitability, influences of neighboring farmers, as well as their individual attitudes. Using the state of Georgia, US, as a case study, the results show that farmers allocated 1056 × 103 acres (23.8%; 2.47 acres is equivalent to 1 ha) of farmlands by 2050 at a contract price of $6.5 per bushel of carinata seeds and with an incentive of $50 Mg−1CO2e SOC sequestered under the BaU scenario. In contrast, at the same contract price and SOC incentive rate, farmers allocated 1152 × 103 acres (25.9%) of land under the no-till scenario, while the SOC sequestration was 483.83 × 103 Mg CO2e, which is nearly four times the amount under the BaU scenario. Thus, this study demonstrated combinations of seed prices and SOC incentives that encourage farmers to adopt carinata with climate-smart practices to attain higher SOC sequestration benefits.

Comparing and optimizing municipal solid waste (MSW) management focused on air pollution reduction from MSW incineration in China

China is the largest developing country in the world, and its municipal solid waste (MSW) has increased with a compound annual growth rate of 5.1 % since 1980. Incineration, which has the advantages of mass- and volume-reduction as well as energy and heat recovery, has become the mainstream environmentally sound treatment method in China. However, air pollution emissions are the primary reason for limiting MSW incineration (MSWI). Currently, the Chinese government is devoted to comprehensively implementing MSW classification. However, the classification model and the future MSW reduction rate are not yet clear. In this study, we project scenarios of air pollution emissions until 2030 based on the different MSW classification models (MSW reduction rates) and diffusion rates of ultra-low emission technology. A total of 6011 tons (t) of particulate matter, 25,881 t of SO2, 14,915 t of CO, 17,167 t of HCl, and 200,166 t of NOx will be emitted in 2030 under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, and air pollutants will not peak under this scenario. Air pollutants will reduce by 11 % of the BAU scenario by only implementing an MSW reduction of 20 % (JPN-model). The optimal scenario (DEU-model, increasing the efficiency of material recovery and upgrading air pollution control devices) means that air pollutants will be reduced by 83.2–96.2 % from the base amount under the BAU scenario. These results provide references for MSW management and air pollution emission reduction from the aspects of MSW classification and technology upgrades in China.

GHG emissions reduction patterns from waste sectors after forced source separation

Waste management is the bridge to balance resource conservation and climate change protection, and source separation is the pre-requirement to improve the recycling rate and normal human behavior. In this work, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission patterns were investigated from waste sectors from 2016 to 2021 in Shanghai, where force MSW source separation was first implemented in China since 2019. The GHG emission in the waste sector increased from 3.06 (2016) to 9.28 (2021) Mt CO2-eq due to the increase of waste disposal amounts from 7.35 (2016) to 11.83 Mt (2021). With the implementation of forced source separation in Shanghai on July 1st, 2019, the proportion of kitchen waste and water content decreased by 37.31% and 20.74% in dry waste, resulting in the increase of low heating value (LHV) by 99.39% (13,160 kJ/kg). The waste disposal system was optimized by employing resource recycling and anaerobic digestion of wet waste, and the corresponding GHG emission intensity decreased from 0.29 to 0.24 t CO2-eq per ton MSW. Three scenario analyses, including the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, New Policy (NP) scenario, and Low-carbon (LC) scenario, were conducted to study the influence of the grid emission factor, wet waste disposal capacity, incineration power generation efficiency, and lower waste plastic proportion on the GHG emissions. The results showed that the GHG emission intensity would reach 0.28, 0.21, and 0.12 t CO2-eq per ton MSW in the BAU, NP, and LC scenarios. Optimizing waste disposal mode and reducing waste plastic from sourced separation was critical to reduce GHG emissions more effectively from the waste sector.

Ethiopia’s Path to Net Zero and Climate-Resilient Development: Policies, Costs, and Co-benefits

The paper specifically explores the corollary benefits for economic development and environmental sustainability of a low-carbon, climate-resilient, green pathway for Ethiopia—a pathway that is consistent with attaining the country’s medium- and long-term development goals. The analysis compares a net zero emissions (NZE) pathway with a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. The BAU scenario embeds optimistic (high) economic growth assumptions from Ethiopia’s 10-Year Development Plan, and it incorporates the gradual and early incremental adoption of several climate initiatives proposed in the Climate Resilience and Green Economy Strategy. The NZE scenario builds on the implementation of Ethiopia’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) by 2030. The NZE scenario also incorporates additional climate policy options (adaptation and mitigation), resulting in net zero emissions by 2050.

Unleashing the sequestration potential of soil organic carbon under climate and land use change scenarios in Danish agroecosystems

Future global climate changes are expected to increase soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition. However, the combined effect of C inputs, land use changes, and climate on SOC turnover is still unclear. Exploring this SOC-climate-land use interaction allows us to understand the SOC stabilization mechanisms and examine whether the soil can act as a source or a sink for CO2. The current study estimates the SOC sequestration potential in the topsoil layer of Danish agricultural lands by 2038, considering the effect of land use change and future climate scenarios using the Rothamsted Carbon (RothC) model. Additionally, we quantified the loss vulnerability of existing and projected SOC based on the soil capacity to stabilize OC. We used the quantile random forest model to estimate the initial SOC stock by 2018, and we simulated the SOC sequestration potential with RothC for a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a crop rotation change (LUC) scenario under climate change conditions by 2038. We compared the projected SOC stocks with the carbon saturation deficit. The initial SOC stock ranged from 10 to 181 Mg C ha−1 in different parts of the country. The projections showed a SOC loss of 8.1 Mg C ha−1 for the BAU scenario and 6 Mg C ha−1 after the LUC adoption. This SOC loss was strongly influenced by warmer temperatures and clay content. The proposed crop rotation became a mitigation measure against the negative effect of climate change on SOC accumulation, especially in sandy soils with a high livestock density. A high C accumulation in C-saturated soils suggests an increase in non-complexed SOC, which is vulnerable to being lost into the atmosphere as CO2. With these results, we provide information to prioritize areas where different soil management practices can be adopted to enhance SOC sequestration in stable forms and preserve the labile-existing SOC stocks.

Outlooks for zeolite catalysts in a low-carbon scenario

Zeolites today are a unique and highly successful class of catalytic materials, but their role in future low-carbon scenarios comes into question. This perspective article summarises the authors' joint view on zeolite chemistry's future direction for catalytic applications to stimulate discussion identifying pillars on which the scientific community should focus. Particular challenges discussed here include i) our view of the zeolite synthesis focused on new structures with optimised textural properties and design of zeolite catalysts with precise control of the location of active sites; ii) discussion of current, mostly new industrial, requests for zeolitic catalysts; iii) emerging catalytic applications in which zeolites should play a key role; and last but not least iv) opportunities for new types of microporous solids. Although some of these are rather challenging, with many barriers to overcome, we suggest fostering research on these directions as the key to maintaining the crucial role of zeolite as catalysts. Discussion on the future role of zeolite science and technology is organised in consideration of three possible future scenarios: (i) a low-carbon BAU (business-as-usual) scenario and (ii) two advanced scenarios, which differ in terms of the degree of circularity (low and high, LC and HC respectively), and (iii) level of substitution of fossil fuels with alternative energy and carbon sources. Trends characterising these scenarios and their impact on zeolite science and technology are discussed to provide the readers with the elements, tools and clues to identify priorities in research and application of zeolite catalysts.

Energy systems modeling for maximizing renewable energy share in fossil fuel dominated Mediterranean climate

AbstractIncreasing energy production and consumption and the need to save and increase its efficiency will lead us to manage the energy system on both supply and demand sides with higher accuracy. This study presents a new model scheme for Mediterranean climate areas' energy systems due to the importance of energy modeling to meet energy systems' needs. This model aims to provide an interactive energy system for two short and medium‐term time horizons (2025 and 2030, respectively) by targeting three main objectives: total primary energy supply, greenhouse gas emissions, and system cost. North Khorasan province in northeastern Iran has been selected for the case study as an example of mountainous and Mediterranean climates. EnergyPLAN has been used as a modeling tool. Accordingly, after examining the study area's current state, its future needs are forecasted using the support vector machine algorithm. The study area's optimal energy system is modeled within the desired time horizons by applying and comparing four different scenarios, including business as usual (BAU), power plant optimization, and demand response with wind or solar power plants. The results show that the part of the energy demand provided by wind scenario's situation is favorable and can meet the study area's future demands. This scenario will reduce CO2 emissions in 2025 and 2030 by 93.87 and 227.78 kilotonnes per year, respectively, compared to the BAU scenario. It is also estimated that this scenario's implementation will save the total annual cost of 8.27 and 156.06 million euros compared to the BAU scenario in 2025 and 2030.

Development of emission reduction measures of trace gas emissions from coal-fired power plants in Indonesia

Most of Indonesia’s electricity demand is supplied by coal fired power plants (CFPPs) which can potentially emit huge amounts of air pollutant gases such as NOx and SO2 gas. The country has committed to reduce Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emission by 2030 through Nationally Determined Contributions but some emission reduction measures may also reduce air pollutant gases. Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) and Atmospheric Fluidized Bed Combustion (AFBC) are the leading control technologies for reducing SO2 and NOx emissions that can be installed in the CFPPs. This study aims to determine the pollution load of SO2 and NOx gases in 2030 generated from CFPPs operation with (reduction scenario) and without FGD and AFCB control technology (business as usual (BAU)). The gas pollution load was calculated using the Atmospheric Brown Clouds- Emissions Inventory Manual (ABC-EIM) procedure. Based on the BAU scenario, the emission load accounted of 1,440,192 tons/year for NOx and 613,121 tons/year for SO2 in 2030. After implementing the control technology scenarios in 2030, the NOx emission load is projected to decrease to 579,610 tons/year, and the SO2 emission load decrease to 77,920 tons/year. The application of AFBC and FGD control technologies can potentially reduce NOx and SO2 emissions load from CFPPs operation in 2030 thus it can help to improve air quality in the future.

Analysis and prediction of the impact of land use/cover change on ecosystem services value in Gansu province, China

The effects of land use/cover change (LUCC) on the spatial distribution and change of ecosystem service value (ESV) are still ambiguous, and cannot effectively guide the formulation of land use (LU) management policies based on the concept of harmonious development. Therefore, based on LUCC data from 1980 to 2020, this study adopted the MCE-CA-Markov model to simulate and predict the LUCC under the Business As Usual (BAU) and Ecological Development Priority (EDP) scenarios in 2030 and 2050. The historical and future ESVs as well as the effects of LUCC on ESV change were calculated in Gansu province, Northwest China. The results showed that the LU and ESV of Gansu province changed greatly between 1980 and 2020, with an increase in Forest (568.62 km2), medium- and high-coverage grassland (1517.58 km2), and Construction land (2264.58 km2), and a decrease in Farmland (-730.17 km2) and Unused land (-2858.58 km2), resulting in an increase of 8.162 billion CNY in total ESV. From 2020 to 2050, the LUCC under the EDP scenario will be more conducive to the increase in ESV, with the increment (52.765 billion CNY) being much higher than that under the BAU scenario (3.885 billion CNY). The growth of ESV will mainly result from the expansion of Forest, Water, and Grassland, accounting for 55.4%, 48.6%, and 19.1% of the total ESV increment, respectively, while the decrease in ESV will be attributed to the changes in Farmland and Unused land, accounting for −16.2% and −10.8% of the total ESV increment, respectively. The results have a certain reference for the future LU structure optimization and ecological benefit growth in northwest China.

The estimated health impact of alcohol interventions in New Zealand: A modelling study.

To estimate the health impacts of key modelled alcohol interventions among Māori (indigenous peoples) and non-Māori in New Zealand (NZ). Multi-stage life-table intervention modelling study. We modelled two scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU); and (2) an intervention package scenario that included a 50% alcohol tax increase, outlet density reduction from 63 to five outlets per 100 000 people, outlet hours reduction from 112 to 50 per week and a complete ban on all forms of alcohol marketing. The model's population replicates the 2018 NZ population by ethnicity (Māori/non-Māori), age and sex. Alcohol consumption was estimated using nationally representative survey data combined with sales data and corrected for tourist and unrecorded consumption. Disease incidence, prevalence and mortality were calculated using Ministry of Health data. We used dose-response relationships between alcohol and illness from the 2016 Global Burden of Disease study and calculated disability rates for each illness. Changes in consumption were based on the following effect sizes: total intervention package [-30.3%, standard deviation (SD) = 0.02); tax (-7.60%, SD = 0.01); outlet density (-8.64%, SD = 0.01); outlet hours (-9.24%, SD = 0.01); and marketing (-8.98%, SD = 0.02). We measured health gain using health-adjusted life years (HALYs) and life expectancy. Compared with the BAU scenario, the total alcohol intervention package resulted in 726 000 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 492 000-913 000] HALYs gained during the life-time of the modelled population. Māori experienced greater HALY gains compared with non-Māori (0.21, 95% UI = 0.14-0.26 and 0.16, 95% UI = 0.11-0.20, respectively). When modelled individually, each alcohol intervention within the intervention package produced similar health gains (~200 000 HALYs per intervention) owing to the similar effect sizes. Modelled interventions for increased alcohol tax, reduced availability of alcohol and a ban on alcohol marketing among Māori and non-Māori in New Zealand (NZ) suggest substantial population-wide health gains and reduced health inequities between Māori and non-Māori.

Sustainable land use scenarios generated by optimizing ecosystem distribution based on temporal and spatial patterns of ecosystem services in the southern China hilly region

Urban expansion and inappropriate land uses in the southern China hilly region have caused a decline in the regional ecosystem services capacity. The exploration of regional ecosystem services under the principle of protecting and improving ecological functions is essential for optimizing land use. Therefore, we determined the ecosystem service value (ESV) in the southern China hilly region from 2000 to 2020 and attempted to analyse the drivers that caused these changes. The ESV decreased from 2000 to 2005 and then increased from 2005 to 2020, with the changes being correlated with changes in regional precipitation, temperature, GDP, and population density. We optimized the land use in 2035 based on these results and conducted simulation experiments to optimize the spatial pattern in three future scenarios: business as usual scenario (BUS), coordinated development scenario (CDS), and ecological priority scenario (EPS). The highest ESV was achieved in the EPS, followed by the CDS, and the lowest ESV was in the BUS. An optimized CDS was regarded as the most feasible approach for the future because it could effectively balance the synergistic relationships between social and ecological factors. The results are a practical scientific resource for future planning and the study provides a feasible method for the implementation of a national ecological protection strategy in the southern China hilly region.

The Impact of Carbon Emission Trading on Renewable Energy: A Comparative Analysis Based on the CGE Model

This study examines the effects of carbon emission trading on renewable energy consumption in China. The research applies the CEEEA2.0 model to simulate the economic, energy, and environmental impacts of carbon trading from 2018 to 2030. The CEEEA2.0 model is a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model that incorporates multiple households, sectors, and an energy and environment module. Four scenarios are considered: the Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS)-benchmark scenario, and the ETS-strengthened and ETS-enhanced scenarios. The findings reveal that carbon emission trading positively influences electricity consumption, resulting in a higher preference for renewable energy due to reduced price disparities between renewable sources and fossil fuels. Consequently, electricity generation from renewable sources increases in all scenarios compared to the BaU scenario. However, the share of renewable energy is not substantially affected by carbon emission trading due to the complex interplay of factors, including substitution and income effects. The study further highlights that carbon trading significantly reduces coal usage and partially increases the overall proportion of renewable energy. These results underscore the significance of establishing ambitious carbon reduction targets and continual efforts to shift towards clean energy sources.

Model for Land Use Optimisation for Flood Management in Lasolo Watershed, Indonesia

Changes in land use from vegetation to non-vegetation in the Lasoso watershed contribute to an increase in the run-off coefficient caused by inundation during the wet season. Therefore, engineering is required to reduce discharge from surfaces. This study seeks to optimize land use in order to manage flooding. This study employs the paimin (modified) method with three different scenarios: Business as usual (BAU), simultaneous, and discrete. Results indicated that the BAU scenario has throughfall and retention capacity values of 15.55 percent and 19.39 percent of the total watershed area, respectively. scenario-2 (simultaneous) decreased throughfall and increased storage capacity (15.35 and 24.65%, respectively); scenario-3 (discrete) also improved. Comparing throughfall values reveals that the discrete simulation (-0.0020) is greater than the simultaneous scenario (-0.008), whereas the retention capacity has the same value (0.0020). The discrete simulation is superior to the simultaneous simulation in terms of optimizing its use for flood management in the Lasolo catchment.