Sustainable land use scenarios generated by optimizing ecosystem distribution based on temporal and spatial patterns of ecosystem services in the southern China hilly region

Abstract

Urban expansion and inappropriate land uses in the southern China hilly region have caused a decline in the regional ecosystem services capacity. The exploration of regional ecosystem services under the principle of protecting and improving ecological functions is essential for optimizing land use. Therefore, we determined the ecosystem service value (ESV) in the southern China hilly region from 2000 to 2020 and attempted to analyse the drivers that caused these changes. The ESV decreased from 2000 to 2005 and then increased from 2005 to 2020, with the changes being correlated with changes in regional precipitation, temperature, GDP, and population density. We optimized the land use in 2035 based on these results and conducted simulation experiments to optimize the spatial pattern in three future scenarios: business as usual scenario (BUS), coordinated development scenario (CDS), and ecological priority scenario (EPS). The highest ESV was achieved in the EPS, followed by the CDS, and the lowest ESV was in the BUS. An optimized CDS was regarded as the most feasible approach for the future because it could effectively balance the synergistic relationships between social and ecological factors. The results are a practical scientific resource for future planning and the study provides a feasible method for the implementation of a national ecological protection strategy in the southern China hilly region.