Analysis and prediction of the impact of land use/cover change on ecosystem services value in Gansu province, China

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The effects of land use/cover change (LUCC) on the spatial distribution and change of ecosystem service value (ESV) are still ambiguous, and cannot effectively guide the formulation of land use (LU) management policies based on the concept of harmonious development. Therefore, based on LUCC data from 1980 to 2020, this study adopted the MCE-CA-Markov model to simulate and predict the LUCC under the Business As Usual (BAU) and Ecological Development Priority (EDP) scenarios in 2030 and 2050. The historical and future ESVs as well as the effects of LUCC on ESV change were calculated in Gansu province, Northwest China. The results showed that the LU and ESV of Gansu province changed greatly between 1980 and 2020, with an increase in Forest (568.62 km2), medium- and high-coverage grassland (1517.58 km2), and Construction land (2264.58 km2), and a decrease in Farmland (-730.17 km2) and Unused land (-2858.58 km2), resulting in an increase of 8.162 billion CNY in total ESV. From 2020 to 2050, the LUCC under the EDP scenario will be more conducive to the increase in ESV, with the increment (52.765 billion CNY) being much higher than that under the BAU scenario (3.885 billion CNY). The growth of ESV will mainly result from the expansion of Forest, Water, and Grassland, accounting for 55.4%, 48.6%, and 19.1% of the total ESV increment, respectively, while the decrease in ESV will be attributed to the changes in Farmland and Unused land, accounting for −16.2% and −10.8% of the total ESV increment, respectively. The results have a certain reference for the future LU structure optimization and ecological benefit growth in northwest China.