BAU Scenario Research Articles

Forecasting of Emission Co-reduction of Greenhouse Gases and Pollutants for the Road Transport Sector in Lanzhou Based on the LEAP Model

With the continuous increase in transportation activities, the transportation sector has become an important source of global greenhouse gases. In 2019, road vehicles accounted for nearly three-quarters of the CO2 emissions of the entire transportation sector and will be the key to achieving carbon peaks in the transportation sector. At the same time, air pollutants emitted by road vehicles are also one of the threats to the environment and human health. Based on the long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP) model, we constructed the baseline (BAU) scenario, low-carbon (LC) scenario, and enhanced low-carbon (ELC) scenario for the development of the road transport sector in Lanzhou from 2015 to 2040 and simulated energy consumption and emission co-reduction of greenhouse gases and pollutants under policies and measures. The results showed that the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of the LC scenario will peak in 2026, whereas those in the ELC scenario will peak in 2020. In these two scenarios, pollutant emissions such as NOx, CO, HC, PM2.5, and PM10 began to decline sharply between 2015 and 2017, and the downward trend will slow down gradually around 2023. Based on the feasibility of measures and the cost of abatement, the LC scenario can be used as a road vehicle carbon peak scenario in Lanzhou. In this scenario, the reduction rates of energy consumption, CO2, NOx, CO, HC, PM2.5, and PM10 emissions will reach -24.17%, -26.57%, -55.38%, -65.91%, -72.87%, -76.66%, and -77.18% compared with those under the BAU scenario by 2040. At present, the road vehicles in Lanzhou City should focus on structural optimization measures such as clean-energy use of public transportation, electrification of small passenger cars, and phasing out old cars, as well as vigorously promoting low-carbon travel and improving energy efficiency accompanying the development of automotive technology. These efforts will effectively control CO2 and pollutant emissions by road vehicles, and carbon peaks will be achieved as soon as possible. In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in vehicle types during the implementation of these measures, which most contribute CO2 and various pollutants, in order to make the measures more targeted by changing the number or the market share of new energy of focused vehicle types.

Carbon sink quantification aids for achieving the zero-emission goal: A case study in Japan

The Japanese government has issued its zero-GHG emission goal by 2050 and a short-term emission mitigation goal for 2030; however, some local communities face difficulties in making detailed mitigation plans. This study provided details on modelling and mapping carbon uptake (i.e., sinks from forest lands) at a high spatial resolution level in Fukuoka Prefecture in 2015. A scenario analysis was then conducted on the net carbon emissions by 2050 to discuss the achievement of the zero-carbon emission goal. The carbon sinks from forest land remaining in Fukuoka were estimated at a high spatial resolution level (forest managed-team level) for the year 2015. The carbon sinks from the pools (living biomass, deadwood, litter, and mineral soil) were approximately 2615 Gg CO2 yr −1. Carbon sinks from other forests (public-owned and private-owned) accounted for approximately 88.2%. The national forest carbon sinks account for approximately 11.8% of the total. The results of the BAU scenario showed that it was impossible to achieve its goal by 2050 without additional efforts on emission mitigation and uptake. As a result of the implemented scenarios, the goal could only be achieved by achieving the short-term mitigation goal for 2030 (3.2% decreased annually from the previous year), maintaining this mitigation trend until 2050, and increasing the level of carbon sink addition (5.3% annually increased from the previous year). This work will provide a precedent to support policymakers from global cities to clarify their net carbon emissions and make essential carbon mitigation and uptake goals.

Understanding the mitigation potential of sustainable urban transport measures across income and gender groups

The global climate is going through a transformation due to increased GHG emissions. Urban transportation is one of the leading contributors to increased GHG emissions due to its dependency on fossil fuels. Mitigation measures are evaluated globally to reduce the emissions from the transport sector. These mitigation strategies have a disproportionate effect on the income-gender groups, and the emissions contribution is non-uniform across income levels and gender. It is imperative to understand the emissions contribution of these groups. In this study, the CO2 and PM2.5 emissions from a combination of eight income-gender groups together are estimated for four urban transport mitigation policy bundles. Further, the emission potential of each mitigation policy bundle for each income-gender group is calculated by comparing emissions from each policy bundle with respective BAU scenario emissions. For a better understanding, policy implication on each income-gender group's specific travel parameters like mode share, average trip length and vehicle kilometres travelled are also assessed. Bundle 4, which is a blend of planning, regulatory, economic and technological policy instruments, showed the highest mitigation potential across all income-gender groups. The study finds that the majority of the female groups showed the highest mitigation potential for both pollutants for 2030 and 2050.

Can China achieve its climate pledge: a multi-scenario simulation of China’s energy-related CO2 emission pathways based on Kaya identity

China is currently in the process of the middle and late stage of industrialization, and energy-related CO2 emissions have reached 10 Gt. This paper models energy consumption and related CO2 emissions and analyzes the development trends of various driving factors of CO2 emissions, explicitly considering China’s economic and social development goals in the medium- and long-term. Different scenarios for 2020–2060 are projected based on the Kaya identity. Energy consumption will peak at 6,200 Mtce in 2035 in the BAU scenario with the energy-related CO2 emissions peaking at 11.1 Gt in 2026–2027 advanced by the rising non-fossil energy share, while energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the accelerated transition scenario would be potentially reduced by 300 Mtce and 300–400 Mt respectively. In the BAU scenario, the net CO2 emissions will remain around 2,000 Mt in 2060, after removing 1,800 Mt by CCS/CCUS, indicating that China needs to enhance its post-2030 policy to deliver the carbon neutrality pledge. Steady energy efficiency improvement, radical industrial and energy restructuring are three key driving forces for carbon neutrality.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-022-21044-w.

Carbon Emission Peak Paths Under Different Scenarios Based on the LEAP Model—A Case Study of Suzhou, China

Environmental pollution caused by energy consumption is a global problem. Optimization of the energy system will contribute to the sustainable development of city, especially of the industrial cities. Based on the Long-term Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) model, the LEAP-Suzhou model was established to explore the energy system optimization and emission reduction path of Suzhou to 2050. By accounting for current energy consumption and carbon emissions, the baseline scenario (BAU) was established. According to the different methods and intensities of energy transformation, an industrial structure optimization scenario (ISO), an energy structure optimization scenario (ESO), and an energy transformation optimization scenario (ETD) were created. Combined with the energy flow diagram, the energy structure and the direction of optimization were analyzed. The results showed that the baseline scenario will consume 259.954 million tons of standard coal by 2050, and the carbon emission will be 677.6 Mt. Compared with BAU, the ISO, ESO, and ETD scenarios will reduce energy consumption by 37.9%, 37.4%, and 74.8%, respectively, by 2050. ETD had the best carbon dioxide reduction, followed by ESO, and finally ISO. Among them, the carbon emission of ETD will reach its peak around 2030 and decrease to 73.8 Mt in 2050, resulting in the best emission reduction effect. This scenario is the best path for Suzhou to achieve the goal of “carbon peak and neutrality” and sustainable development. The LEAP-Suzhou model successfully explores the low carbon path of Suzhou, provides policy guidance for the optimization of energy transition and carbon neutrality of industrial cities, In the future, the energy structure should be further optimized in Suzhou, and advanced energy technologies should be introduced to improve energy efficiency, especially for the power generation sector, and the proportion of clean energy such as gas should be further expanded.

Effects of the energy transition on environmental impacts of cobalt supply: A prospective life cycle assessment study on future supply of cobalt

AbstractCobalt is considered a key metal in the energy transition, and demand is expected to increase substantially by 2050. This demand is for an important part because of cobalt use in (electric vehicle) batteries. This study investigated the environmental impacts of the production of cobalt and how these could change in the future. We modeled possible future developments in the cobalt supply chain using four variables: (v1) ore grade, (v2) primary market shares, (v3) secondary market shares, and (v4) energy transition. These variables are driven by two metal‐demand scenarios, which we derived from scenarios from the shared socioeconomic pathways, a “business as usual” (BAU) and a “sustainable development” (SD) scenario. We estimated future environmental impacts of cobalt supply by 2050 under these two scenarios using prospective life cycle assessment. We found that the environmental impacts of cobalt production could likely increase and are strongly dependent on the recycling market share and the overall energy transition. The results showed that under the BAU scenario, climate change impacts per unit of cobalt production could increase by 9% by 2050 compared to 2010, while they decreased by 28% under the SD scenario. This comes at a trade‐off to other impacts like human toxicity, which could strongly increase in the SD scenario (112% increase) compared to the BAU scenario (71% increase). Furthermore, we found that the energy transition could offset most of the increase of climate change impacts induced by a near doubling in cobalt demand in 2050 between the two scenarios.

Shared Automated Electric Vehicle Prospects for Low Carbon Road Transportation in British Columbia, Canada

This study explores the long-term energy use implications of electrification, automation and sharing of road vehicles in British Columbia, Canada. Energy use is first analyzed for the years 1990–2016 for forward forecasting, and hypothetical scenarios ranging from conservative to disruptive, incorporating various effects of road vehicle electrification, sharing and automation, as well as influences of other technology disruptions, such as online shopping and e-learning are presented and used to project the road transportation energy use in B.C. to 2060. Transportation energy use projections are compared to those of the Canadian Energy Regulator (CER). When considering only the effect of vehicle electrification, the scenarios show higher energy savings compared to CER’s scenarios. The combined impact of vehicle electrification and automation leads to decreased energy use to 2060 for all scenarios considered. The energy savings for all scenarios, except for the conservative one, are higher than CER’s projections. When the effects of vehicle electrification, automation and sharing are merged, all scenarios yield energy savings beyond the CER projections. Inclusion of other technology disruptions and the effects of pandemics like COVID-19 reduce transportation demand and provide further energy savings. The BAU scenario given in this study shows energy use decreases compared to 2016 of 26.3%, 49%, 62.24%, 72.1% for the years 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060 respectively.

Proposed scenario of low carbon development from waste sector in West Papua

The increasing of population and economic growth, urbanization, development progress and living standard has accelerated the rate and amount of waste generation. Waste is a serious problem of a worldwide concern because of its impact on environmental pollution, health and flood disasters in some drainages and rivers. Proper waste management is needed to reduce or prevent its negative impacts. For this reason, it is necessary to identify the types of waste and their potential to produce greenhouse gas emissions in order to obtain an accurate picture in an effort to formulate policies and strategies for reducing GHG emissions. The method used was thinking system and dynamic system by looking at the BAU scenario, 29%, 41% and 44% emission reduction. Based on the model of the dynamics system, a new scenario is needed through the intervention of waste processing by 3R at TPS and TPA, applying aerobic composting, methane capture and incineration.

Assessment of the 2006 Abuja Fertilizer Declaration With Emphasis on Nitrogen Use Efficiency to Reduce Yield Gaps in Maize Production

The Abuja Fertilizer Declaration in 2006 recommended the increase of fertilizer use from the current practice for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to achieve food sufficiency and improve soil fertility status. However, the current recommended rates of fertilizer have not been evaluated for specific crops on their potential to reduce the yield gap and optimize nitrogen use efficiency (NUE). In this study, with nitrogen (N) being a significant yield-determinant nutrient, four N use scenarios were drawn from existing recommendations and were evaluated under field conditions for maize crops in two catchments of the Lake Victoria basin. The scenarios included Business as Usual (BAU, 0 kg N ha−1), 25% of the Abuja declaration (ADS 12.5 kg N ha−1), 50% of the Abuja declaration (ADS 25 kg N ha−1), and Abuja declaration–Abuja scenario (ADS, 50 kg N ha−1). The results revealed that increasing N input levels significantly influenced the growth and yield of maize crops. The ADS scenario recorded the highest grain yield increase (167.39%) in Nyando and 103.25% in Rangwe catchments compared to the BAU scenario. N deficits were observed in all the N use scenarios with a range of −66.6 to −125.7 kg N ha−1 in Nyando and −62.5 to −105.4 kg N ha−1 in Rangwe catchments with the 50% ADS scenario having the highest deficits. The deficits imply that the added N input is insufficient to create an N balance for optimal NUE with consequent high risks of soil N mining. In both catchments, all N use scenarios were within the recommended agro-physiological N efficiency (APEN) level of between 40 and 60 kg kg−1 N. The partial N balance obtained at Nyando (1.56–3.11) and Rangwe (1.10–4.64) was higher than the optimal values, a sign of insufficiency of N inputs and possible risk of soil N depletion in all the scenarios. Our findings conclude that the proposed N rates in the region are still very low for food sufficiency and optimized NUE. Therefore, there is a need to explore other sources of N such as biological N fixation and organic manure and inform policy- and decision-makers to recommend higher rates beyond the “Abuja declaration” with the prospect of reaching target yield and optimizing NUE values based on specific crop recommendations.

Future emissions of particles and gases that cause regional air pollution in California under different greenhouse gas mitigation strategies

Mitigating future climate change and managing future air quality are inter-related fields that have the potential to benefit from coordinated strategies that leverage the efforts in one area to achieve positive outcomes in the other area. California plans to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emission by 80% (relative to year 1990) by the year 2050. The changes required to meet this target also have the potential to improve air quality. Previous work developed an energy-economic model CA-TIMES and an emission inventory model CA-REMARQUE to study the possible pathways of meeting the GHG mitigation target and the air pollutant emissions associated with those pathways. Here we update the CA-TIMES and CA-REMARQUE model framework and analyze six different scenarios: (i) BAU - a business-as-usual future reference scenario, (ii) CAP30 - a loose GHG reduction scenario that meets current policy references but only achieves a 40% GHG reduction (relative to 1990 levels) by the year 2030, (iii) GHGAi - a climate-friendly 80% GHG reduction scenario featuring broad adoption of advanced technologies and renewable energies, (iv) CCS - a scenario that achieves 80% net GHG reductions but allows for more fossil energy combustion by focusing on adoption of carbon capture and sequestration technology, (v) NGB– a variation on the GHGAi scenario that allows for more natural gas combustion for residential and commercial buildings, and (vi) NGT – a variation of the GHGAi scenario that allows for more natural gas combustion for electricity generation. Results show that the GHGAi deep GHG mitigation scenario significantly reduces emissions (−41% PM0.1, −8% PM2.5, and −26% NOX) and improves air quality (−1 μg m−3 PM2.5) yielding public health benefits (+USD 20B yr−1) relative to the BAU scenario. The CCS scenario achieves the same GHG reductions but increases emissions in some areas (+2.5% PM2.5) resulting in only one third of the public health benefits compared to the GHGAi scenario. The NGB and NGT scenarios show that an 18% increase in natural gas utilization in buildings or a 15% increase in natural gas power generation offsets 32% and 46% of the ultrafine particle emission reduction achieved in the GHGAi scenario but has little impact on PM2.5 concentrations, producing approximately 90% of the public health benefits of the GHGAi scenario. These public health benefits should be considered when making decisions about future GHG mitigation strategies.

Global actions under the Paris agreement: Tracing the carbon leakage flow and pursuing countermeasures

Carbon leakage could potentially occur if one group of countries implemented emission reduction policies while others did not. This paper integrates a counterfactual simulation study using a GTAP-E based CGE model with a carbon flow decomposition analysis, thus enabling us to trace the complex paths of carbon leakage numerically. Under the NDC scenarios, the leakage ratios for production-based emission and consumption-based emission is 12.58% and 9.66% respectively. Further decomposing the cross-border carbon flow through forward and backward industrial linkage, this paper finds that even though the net import and export of embodied emissions do not change much with the implementation of Paris Agreement in most developed economies, EU and Asian developed countries do achieve great emission reductions regarding their domestic territorial production-based emissions or consumption-based emissions, and oppositely, United States increase its both emissions under the NDC scenario comparing with BAU scenario. EU, Asian developed counties together with China contribute to the production-based emission reductions mainly by reducing the emissions in producing domestic final goods, and partially by reducing intermediate goods input for producing foreign products. Their consumption-based emission reduction depends on the reduction in meeting final demand by domestic production and also the alleviated reliance on international inflow. India, Russia and rest of the world are the primary contributors to carbon leakage either in terms of the production-base emission or consumption-based emissions. Measures tacking the carbon leakage cannot remove the leakage completely, import tariff would reduce the production-based carbon leakage ratio to 10.25%, while export rebates would even increase the leakage ratio to 13.71%.

Post pandemic strategic planning of food catering production and distribution networks: A regional case study

Due to the Covid19 outbreak, the food catering industry faces disruption of demand traits and great uncertainty about the future development of market segmentation. The need for a re-design of production and logistic networks faces the lack of knowledge about cost drivers, rendering the application of mathematical optimization models challenging. In this paper, a cost components analysis is carried out to quantify each cost item's impact on the full meal cost. Cost analysis aims to formalize the relationship between meal cost and parameters such as productivity, meal conservation regime, customer typology, portioning method, and customer-plant distance. The cost parameters are adjusted through empirically driven correction factors to include operational and management complexities that would otherwise be neglected. The obtained parameters feed a total cost minimization model for a productive and distributive catering network. The location-allocation model chooses the production capacity to activate in each production plant for every meal-type and achieves the customer-production plant pairing. The framework is applied in an Italian regional case study to compare the BAU scenario to two different To-Be scenarios. The As-Is scenario considers four different production facilities serving the pre-pandemic demand of 2019, while the To-Be scenarios are based upon a demand forecast enforcing a more resilient network. The analysis shows how re-designing production and distribution networks enables meeting uncertain demand while keeping FMCs under control within a regional environment.

Long-term impacts of carbon allowance allocation in China: An IC-DCGE model optimized by the hypothesis of imperfectly competitive market

This study presents the construction of a 14-sector, recursive dynamic CGE model and introduces the hypothesis of imperfect competition as the model's improvement. The novel CGE model (IC-DCGE), which is calibrated with the 2017 social accounting matrix, is used to examine the impact mechanism of free-quota ratios on the economy–energy–environment system. Five simulation scenarios are designed with different free-quota ratios and one BAU scenario as a benchmark. The conclusions drawn from this study are as follows: (i) GDP loss due to the ETS policy is typically underestimated in previous studies using the traditional CGE model with a hypothesis of the perfectly competitive market, and the loss could be alleviated with a high free-quota ratio. (ii) Changes in outputs and commodity prices of the ETS-covered industries are more apparent than those of the remaining industries, and the most conspicuous change occurs in the power industry. (iii) Less free-quota ratios would yield better performance in CO2 mitigation and the optimization of energy structure. Overall, this study suggests that China set a high initial free-quota ratio and gradually decrease it to attain the emission reduction target while decreasing economic losses.

Analysing long-term opportunities for offshore energy system integration in the Danish North Sea

This study analyzes future synergies between the Oil and Gas (O&G) and renewables sectors in a Danish context and explores how exploiting these synergies could lead to economic and environmental benefits. We review and highlight relevant technologies and related projects, and synthesize the state of the art in offshore energy system integration. All of these preliminary results serve as input data for a holistic energy system analysis in the Balmorel modeling framework. With a timeframe out to 2050 and model scope including all North Sea neighbouring countries, this analysis explores a total of nine future scenarios for the North Sea energy system. The main results include an immediate electrification of all operational Danish platforms by linking them to the shore and/or a planned Danish energy island. These measures result in cost and CO2 emissions savings compared to a BAU scenario of 72% and 85% respectively. When these platforms cease production, this is followed by the repurposing of the platforms into hydrogen generators with up to 3.6 GW of electrolysers and the development of up to 5.8 GW of floating wind. The generated hydrogen is assumed to power the future transport sector, and is delivered to shore in existing and/or new purpose-built pipelines. The contribution of the O&G sector to this hydrogen production amounts to around 19 TWh, which represents about 2% of total European hydrogen demand for transport in 2050. The levelized costs (LCOE) of producing this hydrogen in 2050 are around 4 €2020/kg H2, which is around twice those expected in similar studies. But this does not account for energy policies that may incentivize green hydrogen production in the future, which would serve to reduce this LCOE to a level that is more competitive with other sources.

Assessment of Carbon Stock in Forest Biomass and Emission Reduction Potential in Malaysia

Malaysia has a large extent of forest cover that plays a crucial role in storing biomass carbon and enhancing carbon sink (carbon sequestration) and reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions, which helps to reduce the negative impacts of global climate change. This article estimates the economic value of forest carbon stock and carbon value per hectare of forested area based on the price of removing per ton CO2eq in USD from 1990 to 2050. The economic value of biomass carbon stored in the forests is estimated at nearly USD 51 billion in 2020 and approximately USD 41 billion in 2050, whereas carbon value per hectare forest area is estimated at USD 2885 in 2020 and USD 2388 in 2050. If the BAU scenario of forest loss (converting forests to other land use) continues, the projected estimation of carbon stock and its economic value might fall until 2050 unless further initiatives on proper planning of forest management and ambitious policy implementation are taken. Instead, Malaysia’s CO2 emission growth started to fall after 2010 due to rising forest carbon sink of 282 million tons between 2011 and 2016, indicating a huge potential of Malaysian forests for future climate change mitigation. The estimated and projected value of carbon stock in Malaysian forest biomass, annual growth of forest carbon, forest carbon density and carbon sink would be useful for the better understanding of enhancing carbon sink by avoiding deforestation, sustainable forest management, forest conservation and protection, accurate reporting of national carbon inventories and policy-making decisions. The findings of this study could also be useful in meeting emission reduction targets and policy implementation related to climate change mitigation in Malaysia.

Exploring deep decarbonization pathways for Argentina

To align near term action with a deep decarbonization objective by 2050, a long term low-greenhouse gas emissions development strategy is needed and involves drastic changes to the energy system and the AFOLU sectors. To help move forward the policy debate in this direction, this paper explores deep decarbonization pathways for the country until 2050 which break with existing more conservative national scenarios. It uses a combined qualitative-quantitative deep decarbonization pathway method based on the complementarity between exploratory storylines and the quantification of pathways based on linked energy-economy models. The built pathways show how deep decarbonization could be reached in Argentina along with other economic development goals and through contrasted possible routes all involving significant changes to the energy and AFOLU sectors. Remarkably, afforestation stands out as a key sectorial measure for reaching DDP. We contrast two alternative DDP Scenarios with a BAU one with specific focus on CO2 emissions, with emphasis on energy sector demand and supply alternatives. Many of the energy initiatives proposed for the BAU scenario were maintained but increased in ambition and many others were incorporated only in these deep decarbonization scenarios. While the HardPath proposes and requires natural gas use - with CO2 capture and storage - the Enlighten scenario proposes replacing it by hydro-nuclear energy. Finally, in none of the DDP scenarios is the export of natural gas proposed as an explicit energy policy objective, since little space is considered in external markets for fossil fuels, within the framework of a global action aimed at decarbonization.

Long term soil carbon sequestration potential of smallholder croplands in southern Ethiopia with DAYCENT model

Considering the importance of soil organic carbon (SOC) and the scarcity of data on how soil management influences its storage in the region, this study assessed the long-term impact of different soil management systems on SOC in southern Ethiopia using the DAYCENT model. The conservation management systems considered were minimum tillage, crop residue (CR) retention, fertilization and their combinations. We parameterized the model with data from studies in the literature. We then modeled conventional cropping system for smallholding farms over a 30-year period (1991–2020) as the business as usual scenario (BAU). Then we assessed the impact of alternative conservation management scenarios compared with the BAU scenario. Our results indicated that the conservation management scenarios increased SOC at 0–20 cm depth in the range 0.34–9.71 Mg C ha−1 over 30 years when compared to BAU practices. The individual effect of fertilization, CR retention or minimum tillage management practices on SOC stock were lower than the response of the combined conservation management practices. The combined 50%–75% CR retention, no-tillage (NT), and 32 kg N ha−1 fertilization provided the highest SOC sequestration. These combinations, increased SOC in the range 8.10–9.71 Mg C ha−1 over 30 years equivalent to rates of 0.27–0.32 Mg C ha−1 yr−1. While long-term empirical data from field experiments are lacking, model results suggest that the combined 50–75% CR retention, NT, and increased N fertilization have a potential to increase SOC sequestration in resource-limited smallholding croplands. The results may be useful for researchers, policy maker and other stakeholders.

Past and prospective electricity scenarios in Madagascar: The role of government energy policies

A thorough understanding of the mechanisms influencing electricity use is imperative for the implementation of energy scenarios. This study first explores Madagascar’s electricity consumption during the 1987–2015 period using a decomposition method. Next, a sensitivity analysis (SA) is conducted, which allows factors that have a significant influence on the different effects (activity, structure, and intensity) to be defined. Scenarios are then designed from regression models based on the SA. The main results revealed the following. (1) This study confirmed that the activity factor was the driving force of energy growth, accounting for more than 107.5% of the total electricity consumption. (2) The negative impacts of structural and intensity effects are particularly marked in periods of political disruption. (3) National energy policy (called “New Energy Policy” (NPE)) based scenario shows a significant electricity variation of 4084 GWh over the 2015–2030 period. By minimizing the intensity effect change to 9.87% between 2015 and 2030, the NPE scenario’s total consumption increase is limited to 4084 GWh. By contrast, this amount is 398 GWh for the BAU scenario with a 22% intensity effect. These developed scenarios seek to illuminate the tradeoffs entailed by the various development paths toward Madagascar’s ambition to become an emerging country.

Dynamic Prospective Average and Marginal GHG Emission Factors—Scenario-Based Method for the German Power System until 2050

Due to the continuous diurnal, seasonal, and annual changes in the German power supply, prospective dynamic emission factors are needed to determine greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from hybrid and flexible electrification measures. For the calculation of average emission factors (AEF) and marginal emission factors (MEF), detailed electricity market data are required to represent electricity trading, energy storage, and the partial load behavior of the power plant park on a unit-by-unit, hourly basis. Using two normative scenarios up to 2050, different emission factors of electricity supply with regard to the degree of decarbonization of power production were developed in a linear optimization model through different GHG emission caps (Business-As-Usual, BAU: −74%; Climate-Action-Plan, CAP: −95%). The mean hourly German AEF drops to 182 gCO2eq/kWhel (2018: 468 gCO2eq/kWhel) in the BAU scenario by the year 2050 and even to 29 gCO2eq/kWhel in the CAP scenario with 3700 almost emission-free hours from power supply per year. The overall higher MEF decreases to 475 and 368 gCO2eq/kWhel, with a stricter emissions cap initially leading to a higher MEF through more gas-fired power plants providing base load. If the emission intensity of the imported electricity differs substantially and a storage factor is implemented, the AEF is significantly affected. Hence, it is not sufficient to use the share of RES in net electricity generation as an indicator of emission intensity. With these emission factors it is possible to calculate lifetime GHG emissions and determine operating times of sector coupling technologies to mitigate GHG emissions in a future flexible energy system. This is because it is decisive when lower-emission electricity can be used to replace fossil energy sources.

The synergy of renewable energies for sustainable energy systems development in oil-rich nations; case of Iran

Dealing with the challenge requires appropriate planning. So as of energy intensity and the environment situation in Iran the energy systems planning is essential. About 92.4% of electricity in Iran is produced by fossil fuels in thermal power plants and has significant share for creating air pollution. Diversification of energy resources is a solution to improve the energy security and reduce environmental risks through the transition to renewable electricity generation. This study has been done by resource feasibility, scenario design and energy modelling to predict the supply and demand of electricity and aims to investigate the benefits of introducing renewables in Iran energy system. Identifying 92 potential areas, prioritizing resources, and estimating capacity by 2035 to synergize the share of renewables is the result of the feasibility section. By evaluating the potentials, the solar with 64,730 MW will have the highest power potential and the wind with 51,110 MW is the next. In modelling section, the electricity generated by renewable energies by the year 2035 is equal to 83.73 TW h in REN scenario, which is almost 11.93% of the total electricity produced but in the BAU scenario, this share is equal to 2.38%. The reduction in fuel consumption in the REN scenario compared to the BAU scenario is also equal to 82.97 MtOe, which would result in a reduction in emissions of equivalent to 221.54 MtCO2e. These are the only benefits of using 30% of the renewables potential, and if more attention is paid, it is definitely the most effective way to develop sustainable energy system.