Forecasting of Emission Co-reduction of Greenhouse Gases and Pollutants for the Road Transport Sector in Lanzhou Based on the LEAP Model

Abstract

With the continuous increase in transportation activities, the transportation sector has become an important source of global greenhouse gases. In 2019, road vehicles accounted for nearly three-quarters of the CO2 emissions of the entire transportation sector and will be the key to achieving carbon peaks in the transportation sector. At the same time, air pollutants emitted by road vehicles are also one of the threats to the environment and human health. Based on the long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP) model, we constructed the baseline (BAU) scenario, low-carbon (LC) scenario, and enhanced low-carbon (ELC) scenario for the development of the road transport sector in Lanzhou from 2015 to 2040 and simulated energy consumption and emission co-reduction of greenhouse gases and pollutants under policies and measures. The results showed that the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of the LC scenario will peak in 2026, whereas those in the ELC scenario will peak in 2020. In these two scenarios, pollutant emissions such as NOx, CO, HC, PM2.5, and PM10 began to decline sharply between 2015 and 2017, and the downward trend will slow down gradually around 2023. Based on the feasibility of measures and the cost of abatement, the LC scenario can be used as a road vehicle carbon peak scenario in Lanzhou. In this scenario, the reduction rates of energy consumption, CO2, NOx, CO, HC, PM2.5, and PM10 emissions will reach -24.17%, -26.57%, -55.38%, -65.91%, -72.87%, -76.66%, and -77.18% compared with those under the BAU scenario by 2040. At present, the road vehicles in Lanzhou City should focus on structural optimization measures such as clean-energy use of public transportation, electrification of small passenger cars, and phasing out old cars, as well as vigorously promoting low-carbon travel and improving energy efficiency accompanying the development of automotive technology. These efforts will effectively control CO2 and pollutant emissions by road vehicles, and carbon peaks will be achieved as soon as possible. In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in vehicle types during the implementation of these measures, which most contribute CO2 and various pollutants, in order to make the measures more targeted by changing the number or the market share of new energy of focused vehicle types.