Research on CO2 emissions from China's electric power industry based on system dynamics model

Abstract

In China, over 40% of national CO2 emissions originate from the power industry, which plays a vital role in emissions reduction. In this paper, we present a system dynamics model based on dynamic interactions among system influential components to analyse CO2 emissions from power electric power industry under three designed scenarios. Simulations results indicate that the total power CO2 emissions show an increasing trend on the whole. Due to the implementation of low-carbon electricity measures, the growth rate of power CO2 emissions in low-carbon development scenario and intensive low-carbon development scenario is much lower than that of basic scenario. A 13.19% reduction of the power CO2 emissions can be achieved in the year 2020 based on low carbon scenario and 27.53% reduction on intensive low carbon scenario. The projections demonstrate the effect of the system dynamic model in serving as a decision making tool in the low carbon electric industry process. Some instructive transition measures to low carbon power industry have provided for power industry's carbon emission profiles.