Influencing Factors and Scenario Forecasts of Carbon Emissions of the Chinese Power Industry: Based on a Generalized Divisia Index Model and Monte Carlo Simulation

Lin Zhu,Peipei Shang,Xiaojun Ma,Yingchun Zhang,Lichun He

doi:10.3390/en11092398

Lin Zhu, Peipei Shang + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/en11092398

Copy DOI

Abstract

The power industry is the industry with the most direct uses of fossil fuels in China and is one of China’s main carbon industries. A comprehensive and accurate analysis of the impacts of carbon emissions by the power industry can reveal the potential for carbon emissions reductions in the power industry to achieve China’s emissions reduction targets. The main contribution of this paper is the use of a Generalized Divisia Index Model for the first time to factorize the change of carbon emissions in China’s power industry from 2000 to 2015, and gives full consideration to the influence of the economy, population, and energy consumption on the carbon emissions. At the same time, the Monte Carlo method is first used to predict the carbon emissions of the power industry from 2017 to 2030 under three different scenarios. The results show that the output scale is the most important factor leading to an increase in carbon emissions in China’s power industry from 2000 to 2015, followed by the energy consumption scale and population size. Energy intensity levels have always promoted carbon emissions reduction in the power industry, where energy intensity and carbon intensity effects of energy consumption have great potential to mitigate carbon levels. By setting the main factors affecting carbon emissions in the future three scenarios, this paper predicts the carbon emissions of China’s power industry from 2017 to 2030. Under the baseline scenario, the maximum probability range of the potential annual growth rate of carbon emissions by the power industry in China from 2017 to 2030 is 1.9–2.2%. Under the low carbon scenario and technological breakthrough scenario, carbon emissions in China’s power industry continue to decline from 2017 to 2030. The maximum probability range of the potential annual drop rate are measured at 1.6–2.1% and 1.9–2.4%, respectively. The results of this study show that China’s power industry still has great potential to reduce carbon emissions. In the future, the development of carbon emissions reduction in the power industry should focus on the innovation and development of energy saving and emissions reduction technology on the premise of further optimizing the energy structure and adhering to the low-carbon road.

Highlights

The increase of greenhouse gas emissions is the main reason for the sharp rise in global temperatures
This paper fully considers the possibility of future technology development, and sets up the current scenario, low-carbon scenario, and technical breakthrough scenario, aiming to select the appropriate path of carbon emissions reduction for the power industry
The increasing electricity intensity of the economy was the main factor in Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Philippines

Summary

Introduction

The increase of greenhouse gas emissions is the main reason for the sharp rise in global temperatures. Compared with the 19th century, the global temperature increased by 0.4–0.6 ◦ C at the end of the 20th century. The United Nations Committee of Experts on Climate Change proposes that the threshold for global climate change is 2 ◦ C. If climate warming is not controlled, the global average temperature will rise by 4–6 ◦ C in the 21st century, which is 6–10 times that of the 20th century [1]. Global warming will bring a series of hazards, such as rising sea levels, melting glaciers, extreme weather, and so on, leading to a series of economic and political conflicts. By the summer of 2017, the area of Arctic sea ice had shrunk significantly [2], leaving only 4.1 million km , which is

Methods

Findings

Discussion

Conclusion