A study on carbon emission forecasting in the power industry under the background of new power system

Abstract

Using VENSIM software to build a system dynamics model, China’s power industry carbon emissions simulation. The model sets up three scenarios: baseline scenario, low carbon scenario and ultra-low carbon scenario: and based on 3 different scenarios, the carbon emissions of the power industry from 2005 to 2030 are simulated and forecasted on this basis. The effects of different emission reductions were compared and evaluated. The results show that research and development of low-carbon technologies, adjustment of power supply structure and industrial structure will contribute to the low-carbon development of China’s power industry.