Past and prospective electricity scenarios in Madagascar: The role of government energy policies

Abstract

A thorough understanding of the mechanisms influencing electricity use is imperative for the implementation of energy scenarios. This study first explores Madagascar’s electricity consumption during the 1987–2015 period using a decomposition method. Next, a sensitivity analysis (SA) is conducted, which allows factors that have a significant influence on the different effects (activity, structure, and intensity) to be defined. Scenarios are then designed from regression models based on the SA. The main results revealed the following. (1) This study confirmed that the activity factor was the driving force of energy growth, accounting for more than 107.5% of the total electricity consumption. (2) The negative impacts of structural and intensity effects are particularly marked in periods of political disruption. (3) National energy policy (called “New Energy Policy” (NPE)) based scenario shows a significant electricity variation of 4084 GWh over the 2015–2030 period. By minimizing the intensity effect change to 9.87% between 2015 and 2030, the NPE scenario’s total consumption increase is limited to 4084 GWh. By contrast, this amount is 398 GWh for the BAU scenario with a 22% intensity effect. These developed scenarios seek to illuminate the tradeoffs entailed by the various development paths toward Madagascar’s ambition to become an emerging country.