Tradeoffs between economy wide future net zero and net negative economy systems: The case of Chile

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Given the possible economic consequences, poorer countries have more challenges in delivering their Nationally Determined Contributions. As a developing country, Chile has pledged to attain carbon neutrality by 2050. While Chile has implemented several mitigation measures, it still relies heavily on carbon sequestration, intending to sequester around 65 MtCO2e by 2050. However, heavy reliance on sequestration poses several risks as the literature shows that natural sinks, particularly forest and land, are exposed to severe impacts from global warming and climate change. Fortunately, Chile has significant renewable energy potential, which, if fully utilized, may move the country towards a net negative emissions context. To assess if such a net-negative system is feasible in the context of Chile, a new regional version of the Global Change Analysis Model for Chile is developed. The model is used to investigate the effects and required levels of investment in renewable energy and decarbonization of end-use sectors to achieve economy-wide net negative emissions scenarios. The design of net negative pathways follows a statistical approach based on the expected sequestration capacity in 2050 and its corresponding confidence interval. The results are compared to scenarios that are aligned with the objective of carbon neutrality by 2050. The findings show that obtaining net-zero emissions by 2050 is possible, however achieving net negative systems will be dependent on existing sequestration capacity and the application of economic incentives to boost green energy deployment in Chile as well as to push such green energy, in the form of electricity or e-fuels, into hard to decarbonize final demand sectors, such as transport, mining, and industry demand sectors. The results also indicate that after significantly reducing CO2 emissions from the energy sector (primarily the power sector), the agricultural sector and other urban and industrial sectors still contribute to non-significant levels of CH4 and N2O emissions.