Long-term Average Values Research Articles

Discovering temporal-spatial features of jobs-housing relationship from a regional perspective: A nationwide study

The recent developments in regionalization have redefined the concept of jobs-housing relationship, calling for reexaminations from the regional perspective. This paper studies the temporal and spatial features of jobs-housing relationship and their relations with regional mobility and regional structure in 2258 Quxians (urban districts or rural counties) across China based on 49 months of cellular signaling data. Results show that jobs-housing relationship differ between city types and have seasonal cycles and yearly trends reflecting the rhythm and development of human activity. The temporal variations in jobs-housing relationship are affected by regional mobility, and larger intercity travel volume leads to lower balance level. The spatial variations in jobs-housing relationship are influenced by the form of regional structure, as measured using the Zipf scaling exponent. More polarized regions are less balanced with exceptions in underdeveloped regions. There is an underlying inflection point in jobs-housing relationship that is similar to its long-term average value and reflects regional market equilibrium. This paper contributes to existing literature by providing a big-data driven nationwide jobs-housing study fully aware of the theoretical and practical needs of a regionalizing world. Findings advances our understanding of macroscopic jobs-housing relationship, and offers policy suggestions for governments across the globe.

Standardized Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis for Climate Change Assessment (S-IPTA)

Research and applications on trend analysis have recently been on the agenda and are top priorities in many disciplines due to the effects of climate change. After a thorough evaluation of the literature, it is noted that different hydro-meteorological variables, such as precipitation, temperature, etc., are studied and analyzed individually. This research proposes a new innovative polygon trend analysis application (S-IPTA) using the standardization concept to fill this gap in classical trend applications and comprehensively compare the trends of different variables to temporal and spatial patterns. Firstly, using statistical standardization, S-IPTA adjusts the original data sets and makes them dimensionless. Then, the innovative trend analyses are conducted and interpreted on one single graph (S-IPTA). The S-IPTA methodology is applied to monthly precipitation and temperature time series of Konya Basin in Türkiye at ten meteorological stations between 1959 and 2022. For precipitation, the S-IPTA did not exhibit a consistent polygon across all stations within the study area, while the temperature polygon was more regular, indicating that the temperature mean was generally stable with a positive trend. Also, S-IPTA shows the difference between the average value for each month and the newly proposed long-term average value (0). S-IPTA also provides a basis for a better interpretation of climate change and its effects by providing a common denominator for various trend characteristics, such as trend magnitudes and trend transitions in different hydro-meteorological time series.

Sediment source analysis in the korabelny stream catchment, King George Island, maritime Antarctica: Geomorphological survey, fingerprinting and delivery rate assessment

Research into sediment provenance identification in Antarctica is emerging as a relevant field of study, providing a unique insight into understanding geomorphological processes in extreme climatic environments. This study focusses on the mechanisms of sediment redistribution in the catchment of the Korabelny Stream, located at the western end of the Bellingshausen Ice Dome on King George Island (Shetland Islands). The catchment area of the stream covers 2.83 km2, with 1.17 km2 under the glacier. Two main sediment sources have been identified: a) the glacierized part, extending along the glacier edge and represented by a complex of moraine deposits lacking protective vegetation cover, along with part of the catchment under the glacier; b) the periglacial part, occupying territory with permafrost and a thin loose cover unevenly protected by early successional vegetation. We combine a tracer-based fingerprinting technique, sediment delivery estimates based on sediment flow connectivity index and geomorphological mapping to quantify the sources contribution to sediment yield. The proportional contribution of the glacierized part was 60–66 % of the total sediment yield based on two independent methods, suggesting the reliability of the results. It is noteworthy that sediment transport from the glacierized part exceeds that from the periglacial part. However, a significant portion of the sediment is redeposited in temporary reservoirs formed along the glacier edge and Lake Mesyats, located in the central part of the Korabelny Stream catchment. The main factor determining sediment yield in the catchment is the water reserves in snow at the beginning of the ablation season. In years when water reserves in snow significantly exceed long-term average values, such as observed in the austral summer of 2014–2015 when study was conducted, sediment yield was low. This is attributed to the faster melting of ice on the glacier compared to snow, due to differences in albedo.

Towards sustainable precipitation management in Madurai Town Planning Area (India)

This study aimed to look for efficient development strategies towards achieving sustainable precipitation management in the Madurai Town Planning Area (MTPA) in India. In the MTPA, precipitation is the predominant source of freshwater for agricultural and domestic uses in addition to water received through conventional systems. The average annual precipitation in the region is ~ 816 mm with standard deviation of 233 mm. The regression analysis showed that annual precipitation is following a decreasing trend and will be about 716 mm by 2030. The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) values ranging from 18 to 20 represented strong irregularities and seasonality in annual precipitation over the study area. March, July, September, and November months contributed 2.5, 6.19, 14, and 16% to annual precipitation, respectively, and all showed decreasing trends over time. Only 20% of Northeast monsoon was active over the past 44 years (1976–2019), resulting in a 15% probability of flood and drought occurrences throughout the MTPA. The long-term (1976–2019) average value of annual precipitation days was about 42. The Concentration Index (CI) showed that 60–70% of precipitation was received within 25% of precipitable days. Daily precipitation class of moderate (7.5–34 mm) and rather heavy (34–64 mm) ranges were the dominant types of precipitation, contributing 46% and 26% to total annual precipitation, respectively. Except for October, the monthly precipitation received was deficit to meet the irrigation water demand in the MTPA. However, development of precipitation harvesting systems can annually preserve about 27 Mm3 freshwater in the urban space of the MTPA.

West Nile Fever: Analysis of the Epidemiological Situation in the Russian Federation in 2023, Forecast for 2024

An analysis of the epidemiological situation on West Nile fever (WNF) in the Russian Federation in 2023 has revealed an increase in the number of cases (210) relative to the year 2022 by 6.3 times, the long-term average value by 1.2 times. Manifestations of the epidemic process were characterized by a significant expansion in the number of territories, where cases of the disease were confirmed (24 constituent entities, including in 13 – for the first time); a long epidemic season; an increase in the proportion of cases with a severe clinical course and fatality rate, which significantly exceeded the long-term average across Russia (8.5 and 1.2 %, respectively). Patients with fever and other similar manifestations of WNF were examined for the presence of the disease markers in 50 entities of the Russian Federation. Continued trend towards a decrease in the volume of diagnostic studies carried out by medical organizations and an increase in the time required for the etiological deciphering of disease cases has been established. Serological examination of sample groups of healthy population was performed in 65 entities. Epizootiological monitoring was carried out in 74 entities, rate of infection of carriers and vectors with West Nile virus (WNV) was confirmed in 14 entities. In the territory of the European part of Russia and the North Caucasus, the circulation of WNV lineages 1, 2 and 4 with the dominance of WNV lineage 2 has been established. Data on the genetic heterogeneity of WNV lineage 2 strains that circulated in Russia in 2023 have been obtained. Based on an analysis of climatic factors, a forecast of WNF incidence in the Russian Federation for 2024 was prepared.

Moose resources in the Republic of Karelia

For a comprehensive assessment of the state of hunting resources in general and moose in particular, it is necessary to know several basic indicators, such as: the number of animals, their population density, and the biological productivity of hunting acreages. The purpose of the research was to analyze the state of moose resources in the Republic of Karelia. The object of research was the wild moose population in the Republic of Karelia. The number of moose in the republic as a whole and in the context of administrative districts has been analyzed in the work. The number of animals is one of the most important indicators for analyzing the ecological and economic state of biological resources. On the number of moose base the density of the moose population was calculated and analyzed. The districts of the Republic of Karelia with high, medium and low densities of moose were identifi ed. The biological productivity of hunting acreages for moose and the cost of moose resources were calculated. So, for the period 2018–2022 the number of moose in the Republic of Karelia has tended to increase from 19 454 heads in 2018 up to 21 250 heads in 2022, i.e. by 1796 heads or 9,2 %. The highest average long-term number of animals was recorded in the Loukhsky district, where it amounted to 2127 heads and the lowest in the Sortavalsky district with 382 heads. The average long-term population density of moose per 1000 hectares of characteristic acreages was less than 2 heads per 1000 hectares, which corresponds to land quality 5 for this type of animal. The average long-term biological productivity of hunting acreages for moose was 0,22 kg/ha, and the average long-term value of moose resources was 6,27 billion rubles.

Особенности формования и трансформации максимального стока реки Миус

Purpose: to study the features of the formation and transformation of the maximum river runoff based on empirical data. Materials and methods. The series of observations of water levels and flows in two existing gauging stations Kuibyshevo (hydrological station 1) and Matveev Kurgan (hydrological station 2) with a duration of 51 years, were used as source materials. Statistical and theoretical methods were used as information processing methods, including system analysis and hydrological and geographical generalizations. Results and discussions. A study consisting of four stages: analysis of hydrographic characteristics, construction of dependency graphs of maximum flow rates Q = f(H), analysis of hydrological series and calculated data, was carried out. As a result of the analysis of hydrographic characteristics, a significant difference in the average heights of the watershed area and the bed slope was revealed. When comparing the maximum parameters by year, it was revealed that the maximum level recorded at the gauging station does not correspond to the maximum flow rate: at the hydrological station 1, the maximum water level was observed in 1979 and corresponded to 2 % availability, while the same year discharge of 151 cubic m/s corresponded to 6 % availability, the highest discharge was recorded in 1970 and was higher by 30 cubic m/s, the water level corresponded to 4 % availability and was lower by 0.49 m; at hydrological station 2, the maximum water level was recorded in 1985 with a flow rate of 202 cubic m/s, corresponding to 6 % probability, the maximum flow rate was observed in 1964 at a water level 0.38 m below the maximum, which corresponds to 12 % availability. Conclusions. The materials presented in the article confirm that the use of the coefficients of variation and asymmetry of one gauging station for the long-term average values of another gauging station is not entirely correct, despite the fact that they are located on the same river at a fairly close distance.

Применение фазового анализа для прогнозирования многолетней динамики температуры атмосферного воздуха

Long-term average values of atmospheric air temperature (annual, autumn, winter, spring and summer) are one of the key points used to make scientifically valid decisions on the adaptation of crops to changing climate and environmental conditions. Despite their widespread use for the analysis and forecasting of various meteorological parameters of the atmosphere, the nature of such series has not yet been sufficiently studied. This determines the relevance of detailed analysis and forecasting of time series of atmospheric air temperature. At the same time, they are considered to be formed under the influence of linear and cyclic factors. To identify cyclical components, one of the most powerful and adequate time series analysis tools called phase analysis is used. In this study, a phase portrait of the time series of average air temperatures for the autumn period at the Nalchik weather station from 1961 to 2022 is constructed for preforecast analysis. To select the most significant periods of quasi-cycles, the theory of fuzzy logic is used. On its basis an algorithm for the formation of a fuzzy set of quasi-cycle lengths is implemented. Further prediction of the values of the time series in the retrospective section is carried out by the least square method. Further forecasting of time series values in the retrospective section is carried out using the least squares method. According to the results of the conducted research, it was found that the proposed model makes it possible to predict the values of average autumn air temperatures with high accuracy (5%). In the time series of average autumn air temperatures, a cycle characteristic of the 11-year cycle of solar activity and its phases is traced. All the quality criteria of the proposed model meet the requirements for the quality and adequacy of forecast models. This model can be applied to the analysis and forecasting of the average values of atmospheric air temperatures for the spring, summer and winter periods, as well as the average annual temperatures in general. The research has shown that the time series characterizing the temperature regime of atmospheric air, which is very complex in nature, can be predicted using phase analysis.

Future perspective of water budget in the event of three scenarios in Afghanistan using the WEAP program

In this study, WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning System) software was used for the water resources management and water budget calculation of the Balkh River Basin, the sub-basin of the Northern River Basin in Afghanistan. The water resources in the basin and 10 demand sites (irrigation, drinking water, etc.) were introduced to the software, and precipitation, evaporation, runoff, etc., were obtained from stream gauging stations for long years (2010–2021). Hydrological data and information on population, irrigation lands, and drinking water use were entered. Scenario-1 (current situation) was created by entering the existing data in the created model. Subsequently, the long-term monthly average maximum and minimum values of precipitation, evaporation, runoff, and similar values were added to the current scenario. Forecast results between the years (2022–2050) were created with Scenario-2 (optimistic case) and Scenario-3 (pessimistic case), and analyzes were carried out in three different situations, and the results were examined. According to the analyzes, the current water potential found by the inclusion of surface water and groundwater from the Mezar-i-Sharif Region in the Balkh River Basin is 4747 million m3 annually; it has been determined that this value will be approximately 9741 million m3 in 2050 in the optimistic scenario and 1811 million m3 in the pessimistic scenario. It has been determined that the water need, which cannot be met as 29,394 million m3 in the current situation, approximately 14103 m3 in the optimistic scenario, and 49,979 million m3 in the pessimistic scenario in 2050. While the current met need of the Balkh River Basin is 7.81 % with losses, it has been calculated as 27.14 % in an optimistic situation and 1.71 % in a pessimistic situation for 2050. While the current met needs of the Basin, excluding losses, is 12 %, it is calculated as 33.9 % in the optimistic situation and 3.1 % in the pessimistic situation for 2050. It is understood that Afghanistan's water resources should be handled with an integrated water resources management (IWRM) approach, and future water resource planning should be made by considering human needs, environmental impact, and government visions. Water resources should be planned most efficiently by controlling the amount of undocumented wells, drilling, and detecting the losses and leakages in the existing systems with certain methods.

Evaluation of the productivity of open ground cucumbers according to the adaptability parameters in the Middle Amur region conditions

The research was conducted in 2019-2021 in the Khabarovsk district of the Khabarovsk Territory in the open ground at the breading plot of the Vegetable Crops and Potato Department of the Far Eastern Agricultural Research Institute on the meadow-brown heavy loamy soils. The purpose of the research is to evaluate the variety samples of open-ground cucumber by yield and adaptability parameters in the conditions of the Middle Amur region. The material for the study were 15 variety samples of breeding by the Far Eastern Agricultural Research Institute. The meteorological conditions in the years of researches differed from the long-term average values, especially in the amount of precipitation. The hydrothermal conditions in the active growing season of cucumber in the summer months were characterized mainly by redundant humidification, hydrothermal coefficient = 2.1-5.4. The average annual yield of cucumber for three years was 21.4 t/ha. The level of the average yield varied from 17.1 to 27.2 t/ha. The indicator of quantitative variability on the trait of yield varied from insignificant V=0.75-5.80% to average V=11.11-12.43% variation. “Mig” variety sample and the variety samples № 1, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10 (bi=1.22-2.81) are among the varieties of the narrowly adaptive type (bi>1). “Khabar”, “Yerofey”, “Naslednik” variety samples and the variety samples № 2, 3, 7, 8, 11 are among the varieties of neutral or broadly adaptive type (bi

SEISMICITY of the TERRITORY of BELARUS in 2018–2019

A review of seismicity in the territory of Belarus within 2018–2019 based on the data of 17 digital stations is presented. A total of 72 events with Kd=4.9–8.6 were recorded in 2018 and 69 events with Kd=4.9– 8.2 − in 2019. All of the events were confined to the southern part of the territory, the Soligorsk mining area included. The comparison of NΣ and ΣE annual estimations for 2018 and 2019 with the long-term average values shows that the level of the seismic energy released in 2018 and 2019 remains low, but a number of the events for the periods under consideration are higher than the long-term average background values. There is no the stable correlation between the released seismic energy and the number of events for a long-term period of 1983−2019.

SEISMICITY of AZERBAIJAN and ADJACENT TERRITORIES in 2018–2019

In 2018–2019, the Azerbaijan network of seismic stations continued to operate without changes and consisted of 35 digital stations. To estimate the magnitude of earthquakes in these years, only the local magnitude ML Azr was determined. The total number of earthquakes recorded by the Azerbaijan network of stations was 5387 in 2018 and 6880 in 2019, however, the catalog of earthquakes in Azerbaijan and adjacent territories, published in the appendix to this article, provides data on earthquakes only with a magnitude of ML Azr3.0, which ОБЗОР СЕЙСМИЧНОСТИ 66 number was 101 in 2018 and 115 in 2019. The number N of the representative level earthquakes (KR≥9) in the study area slightly increased in 2018 and 2019 compared to the long-term average annual value Nav for 1993– 2017, while the released seismic energy decreased relative to the background level by 6 and 7 times, respectively. The most significant seismic event on the territory of the Republic in 2018 was the earthquake of June 5 with ML Azr=5.5, and in 2019 – the earthquake of February 5, ML Azr=5.2. Both events were felt in the nearest settlements with an intensity of Ii=6.

SEISMICITY of KYRGYZSTAN and UZBEKISTAN in 2018 and 2019

In 2018 and 2019 seismic observations on the territory of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan were carried out by networks of seismic stations of these countries. In August 2018, the Salom-Alik station was added to the 25 seismic stations, functioning on the territory of Kyrgyzstan, and in April 2019, the Jany-Kuch station was installed. In 2018, 4 stations (Buston, Nukus, Sukok, Khiva) of 45 stations operating in the previous year in Uzbekistan were closed out. So, data of 41 seismic stations of Uzbekistan were used in 2018 and 2019. 2018 was relatively calm as regards to the seismic activity: the consolidated catalog of earthquakes included 231 events with KR=8.6–13.0. The maximum by energy was the earthquake of September 3 at 21h52m with KR=13.0, located at the territory of neighboring China. The foreshock close by energy was registered 73 seconds before it (KR=12.1). The main shock was accompanied by aftershocks, the maximum of which occurred on September 4 at 02h51m with KR=11.6. In 2019, the seismicity of the region remained almost at the level of the previous year: 210 earthquakes with KR=8.6–12.4 were registered. The strongest earthquake in this year's catalog occurred on January 12 with KR=12.4 also in China. The lowest seismic activity compared to its long-term average value for the period from 1996 to 2019 was noted in 2019.

Air temperature change manifestation at the Zhytomyr territory

The territory of cities with a changing environment, a significant density of population, industrial and transport facilities, daily activities that ensure its vital activity and cause significant greenhouse gas emissions, causes a significant contribution to climate change, which is one of the most acute environmental problems of our time. Purpose. To assess the manifestations of air temperature changes in the city of Zhytomyr for the period 2000-2022. Methods. Statistical, the coefficient of deviation essentiality of air temperature from the average long-term values was calculated in accordance with the methodology of Pede D.A. . Results. The information base of the research was the data on average annual and average monthly air temperatures in Zhytomyr of the Zhytomyr Regional Centre for Hydrometeorology. It was determined that in the period 2000–2022, the air temperature in the city increased by 1.9 °C compared to the climatic norm. 2015, 2019, and 2020 were the warmest during the period of our observations. Based on the calculation of the coefficients of of deviation essentiality of air temperature deviations from long-term average values, it was determined that for individual months of the year for the period 2000–2022, 2.9% of recorded conditions were close to extreme, and 31.9% – recorded conditions that differ significantly from the perennial average, the remaining 65.2% have conditions close to normal. According to the years of observation, temperature conditions that are significantly different from the long-term average occurred in 2002, 2007, 2008, 2015-2020, close to normal - during the rest of the years. Conclusion. The obtained results are important for understanding the problem of increasing air temperature in Zhytomyr and developing measures to adapt to climate change at the local level.

Anomalies of Thermal Fields Revealed by Satellite Data during Preparatio n and Occurrence of Strong Earthquakes in the Region of the Baikal Rift Zone in 2008–2022

Long-term changes in thermal fields were studied before and during strong earthquakes with magnitudes from 5.1 to 5.6 that occurred in the region of the Baikal rift zone in 2008–2022. Satellite data were used for these studies. For the analysis we used the values of land surface temperature, temperature of the near-surface layer of the atmosphere, outgoing long-wave radiation, and relative humidity recorded using the AIRS instrument mounted on the Aqua satellite. During the periods of preparation and occurrence of these seismic events, anomalous variations in the parameters of thermal fields registered with satellite were revealed. They exceeded the average long-term values: for land surface temperature and temperature of the near-surface layer of the atmosphere by 5–10%, for outgoing long-wave radiation by 11–15%, and for relative humidity by 6–10%. A strong negative correlation was found between changes in the temperature of the near-surface layer of the atmosphere and relative humidity (correlation coefficient of –0.75), as well as antiphase oscillations between the values of the outgoing long-wave radiation and relative humidity. The obtained results can be used for studies of the precursor variability of thermal fields during monitoring of seismic hazard zones.

Risk Premium of Bitcoin and Ethereum during the COVID-19 and Non-COVID-19 Periods: A High-Frequency Approach

This paper reports our findings on the return dynamics of Bitcoin and Ethereum using high-frequency data (minute-by-minute observations) from 2015 to 2022 for Bitcoin and from 2016 to 2022 for Ethereum. The main objective of modeling these two series was to obtain a dynamic estimation of risk premium with the intention of characterizing its behavior. To this end, we estimated the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Mean with Normal-Inverse Gaussian distribution (GARCH-M-NIG) model for the residuals. We also estimated the other parameters of the model and discussed their evolution over time, including the skewness and kurtosis of the Normal-Inverse Gaussian distribution. Similarly, we determined the parameters that define the evolution of the estimated variance, i.e., the parameters related to the fitted past variance, square error and long-term average value. We found that, despite the market uncertainty during the COVID-19 emergency period (2020 and 2021), the selected cryptocurrencies’ return volatility and kurtosis were even greater for several other subperiods within our sample’s time frame. Our model represents an analytical tool that estimates the risk premium that should be delivered by Bitcoin and Ethereum and is therefore of interest to risk managers, traders and investors.

Пространственное распределение метеорологических условий бассейна реки Зеравшан и их корреляция со стоком реки Зеравшан

Correlations between average long-term values of meteorological parameters at weather stations over the period of 1950–2021 are investigated for the western, central, and eastern subregions of the Zeravshan River basin. The analysis of the data made it possible to obtain the information about the air masses transporting moisture, as well as about the distribution of precipitation depending on local orography, geographic latitude, and elevation. The seasonal distribution of long-term average annual runoff of the Zeravshan River is studied. The correlation analysis revealed that the maximum value of the correlation coefficients between the period of maximum runoff (VI-VIII) and the value of precipitation and temperature corresponds to the spring (III-V) and summer (VI-VIII), respectively. Keywords: correlation, Zeravshan River, precipitation, temperature, river runoff

Results of the study of soybean varieties at Omsk agricultural research centre in the Kostanay region of the Republic of Kazakhstan

The authors conducted research from 2012–2021 at LLP Agricultural Experimental Station “Zarechnoye” of the Kostanay region of Kazakhstan. The experiment included early maturing soybean varieties bred by the Omsk ANC, approved for cultivation in the Russian Federation: Dina, Sibiryachka and Zolotistaya, also zoned in the Republic of Kazakhstan. From May till September 2012, 2014, 2019, and 2022 dry weather conditions were observed (HTC 0.40 - 0.69); arid (HTC 0.70 - 0.99) - in 2015 - 2017, 2020; moderately humid (HTC 1.00) - in 2013 and 2018 A significant positive effect on the duration of the growing season was provided by an increase in the HTC coefficient for the period May–September (r = 0.566) and in July (r = 0.444). An increase in precipitation lengthened the growing season to 113 days, and an increase in air temperature accelerated the growing season to 83 days (r = -0.353 and r = -0.440, respectively). The most stable was the plant height, which varied depending on the conditions of the year and variety from 55 to 76 cm - the coefficient of variation was about 10%. Significant varietal differences in average long-term values were revealed only by the number of pods per plant - the Sibiryachka cultivar had an advantage over the Dina and Zolotistaya cultivars, having formed an average of 36 pods per plant over ten years. The level of seed yield was significantly affected by the amount of precipitation (r = 0.608) and air temperature (r = 0.632) in June, as well as the number of productive nodes (r = 0.365) per plant. The increase in the share of protein was positively influenced by the rise in the amount of precipitation in June and in general for May–September: r = 0.415 and r = 0.581, respectively, as well as by the HTC for these periods: r = 0.362 and r = 0.561. A significant positive correlation was found between the protein content and the weight of 1000 seeds (r = 0.615) and a not high but significant positive correlation between the weight of 1000 seeds and the amount of precipitation in August (r = 0.375). The maximum seed yield and protein content in the experiment were noted in the Dina variety in 2016 - 2.78 t/ha and 40.6%, respectively. Variety Zolotistaya has the best resistance to stress in these indicators. Types differed in plasticity: Dina - in terms of yield (bi = 1.11) and Sibiryachka - in terms of weight of 1000 seeds (bi = 1.18). All varieties of the selection of the Omsk ANC included in the experiment can be used in breeding work in the conditions of the Kostanay region as sources of early maturity and yield - they need from 93 to 110 days to form more than 2.4 t/ha of seeds.

Analysis of Brucellosis Incidence and Molecular-Genetic Characteristics of Brucella Population in the Territory of the Russian Federation

An analysis of brucellosis incidence in Russia in 2013–2022 and the data on genetic diversity of Brucella melitensis and Brucella abortus populations isolated in Russia in 1939–2022 are provided in the review. Over the past decade, the epidemiological situation in Russia has been characterized as unstable against the background of persistent unfavorable conditions for brucellosis in cattle and small ruminants. During the period of 2013–2022 (9 months), 4298 epizootic foci as regards brucellosis in cattle (89164 sick animals) and 371 as regards brucellosis in small ruminants (13569) were registered. The largest number of epizootic brucellosis foci was recorded in the North-Caucasian and Southern Federal Districts. In 2013–2022, on average, 327 cases of brucellosis among people were registered annually, the incidence rate per 100 000 of the population was 0.24. Up to 70–90 % of brucellosis cases were detected in the south of the European part of the country. A trend towards deterioration of the situation on brucellosis in Volga (Penza and Samara Regions) and Central (Smolensk, Voronezh and Tula Regions) Federal Districts is observed. There is a connection between the intensity of epidemic manifestations of brucellosis and the level of anthropurgic enzooty of territories. In 2022, 467 cases of brucellosis were reported (0.32 per 100 000 of the population), which is 42.8 % higher than annual average values over 10 years. In 2023, a measure of stability of incidence rates, by 20–25 % above average long-term values, is to be expected. Incidence of brucellosis in humans will be within the range of 380–410 cases (0.26–0.28 per 100 000 of the population). The results of genotyping of B. melitensis strains point to an increase in the proportion of isolates with an MLVA-profile characteristic of strains from enzootic as regards brucellosis countries of Middle East and North Africa over past 20–25 years, which can indicate importation (introduction) of the infection from these territories to Russia through small ruminants and/or biomaterial from them.

Review of the Epidemiological Situation on Ixodic Tick-Borne Borrelioses in the Russian Federation in 2013–2022 and Forecast for 2023

The aim of the review was to characterize the epidemiological situation on ixodic tick-borne borreliosis (ITBB) in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in 2022, to forecast the development of the ITBB epidemic process in 2023 based on the analysis of its trends in the period of 2013–2022. In total, 7 264 cases of ITBB were registered in the Russian Federation in 2022, which is 1.9 times higher than the 2021-value. In all regions in 2022, after a sharp decrease in the level of registered morbidity during the “covid” phase of 2020–2021, there was an incidence raise to the pre-pandemic level. During 2013–2022, distinctive features of the trends in the development of the ITBB epidemic process in the territories of varying degree of epidemic hazard were retained. A downward tendency in the incidence rates was revealed in 14 out of 18 entities with a long-term average annual incidence (LTAA) of ITBB above 6.2 0 /0000, with the exception of Moscow and the Kaluga Region, where a further increase in the incidence of ITBB is possible. In 6 out of 16 regions with LTAA 2013–2022 between 3.31 and 6.2 0 /0000, an upward trend was observed, and in 8 – a decrease in morbidity. The trend towards an increase in morbidity was detected in 7 out of 21 entities with LTAA of ITBB from 1.21 to 3.3 0 /0000 and in 15 out of 26 regions with a low LTAA 2013–2022 (below 1.2 0 /0000). The analysis of trends in the development of the ITBB epidemic process against the trends in changes in the frequency of contacts of the population with ticks, as well as calculations of the probable incidence rate allowed us to conclude that the incidence rate of ITBB in 2023 will range within the confidence intervals of long-term average annual values for the majority of the federal districts, with the exception of the Central Federal District, where an increase in the number of cases of ixodic tick-borne borreliosis is likely to occur, provided that the existing volumes of preventive measures are maintained and abnormal climatic phenomena absent. Effective control of the epidemic situation on the ITBB is attainable through preservation, and for such areas as Moscow, the Moscow Region, Voronezh, Kaluga, Orel, Ryazan, Penza and Rostov Regions, the Republic of Buryatia – increase in the volume of preventive measures, strengthening zoological and entomological monitoring of activity and structure of natural foci. There is an obvious need to develop algorithms for molecular-genetic monitoring of pathogens circulating in natural foci, and to focus attention onto the problems of diagnosis and prophylaxis of tick-borne transmissible infections.