Long-term Average Values Research Articles

Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever: Epidemiological and Epizootiological Situation in the Russian Federation in 2022, Incidence Forecast for 2023

The review presents an analysis of the epidemiological and epizootiological situation on Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) in the Russian Federation in 2022. The incidence rate of CCHF registered in 2022 (59 cases) was 1.2 times higher as compared to 2021, however, below the long-term average annual values. The mortality rate was 10.2 %, which exceeds the indicators of long-term observations (in 2012–2021 – 3.2 %). Following epizootiological survey of stationary observation points, it was found that the number of Hyalomma marginatum imago in 2022, in general, corresponded to the average long-term indicators. CCHF virus isolates circulating in Russia in 2017–2022 belonged to the genetic lines “Europe-1” (V), “Europe-2” (VI), and “Europe-3” (VII). The ratio of CCHF virus genovariants in the population on the territory of the Russian Federation in 2017–2022 didn’t change. Based on the analysis of naturalclimatic factors, the forecast for the incidence of CCHF in the Russian Federation for 2023 has been made.

Review of Epidemiological Situation on Rickettsioses in the Russian Federation in 2022 as Compared with 2013–2021, Forecast for 2023

The aim of the review was to characterize the epidemiological situation on tick-borne rickettsioses (TR) in the Russian Federation in 2022 in comparison with the pandemic years of 2020–2021 and the pre-pandemic period of 2013–2019, to give the forecast for 2023. During 2013–2022, a pattern was observed in the incidence of rickettsiosis of the tick-borne spotted fever group (with the exception of Astrakhan spotted fever – ASF), that is also characteristic of most other natural focal infections (NFIs): a sharp decrease in registered incidence rates in 2020–2021 with the subsequent increase in 2022 almost up to pre-pandemic levels or even exceedance in some regions. The absence of a defining influence of the frequency of contacts of the population with vectors on the decrease in the incidence in the period of 2020–2021 and the rise in the value in 2022 confirms the registration-related nature of the changes. Given due attention to the problem of effective detection and reporting of NFIs, we expect the incidence of tick-borne rickettsioses to remain within the confidence intervals of long-term average values in most endemic regions in 2023. Relaxed vigilance to the problem of NFIs may lead to a decline in the reported incidence of Siberian tick-borne typhus in the Krasnoyarsk and Zabaikalsky Territories, Republics of Tuva and Khakassia, Novosibirsk and Amur Regions; reduction in the incidence of ASF in Astrakhan Region. The main issue in detecting and registration of the tick-borne rickettsiosis incidence, objective assessment and forecasting of the epidemic situation as regards this group of infections is conditioned by the lack of domestic certified diagnostic test kits for laboratory verification of rickettsioses. Close cooperation between epidemiologists and clinicians is required to establish and register cases of TR based on clinical and epidemiological data.

The climate change impact on greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 and N2O) from soils at agroecosystems

Formulation of the problem. Soils are a significant source of greenhouse gases (GHGs), the release of which into the atmosphere forms the global warming potential. Mathematical models describing greenhouse gas emissions make it possible to assess the impact of climate change on the GHG emissions on a regional scale, and study how land-use changes affect these emissions. The study is aimed at assessment of potential changes in CO2 and N2O emissions from soils at agroecosystems under the influence of temperature regime changes and increasing aridity in the context of global climate change. Materials and methods. Numerical experiments with a comprehensive model of GHG emissions from the soils at the winter wheat agroecosystem were performed by means of RCP4.5 climate change scenario. The study is based on the materials of agrometeorological observations at the hydrometeorological station of Bilovodsk (Eastern Ukraine) for the period of 1991-2020 and the climate change scenario RCP4.5 for the period of 2021-2050. Results. Classification of crop vegetation conditions allowed us to reduce the diversity of their regimes to certain weather types, characterizing the common conditions of crop formation in spring and summer, due to which the so-called ‘dry’ and ‘humid’ years were distinguished. The tendencies of change in air temperature and rainfall during vegetation of winter wheat in years different on humidity have been established. The increase in air temperature from the beginning of the growing season was gradual, while maintaining a stable correlation: a ten-day average long-term temperature was more than a temperature of the ‘dry’ year which was more than a temperature of the ‘humid’ year. The intensity of greenhouse gas emissions is defined by the type of humidification in the growing season. In the ‘dry’ years at the beginning of the vegetation season, CO2 emissions will make up 0.044-0.079 tons of С-CO2 ha-1 per a ten-day period, which is higher than the average long-term values and almost twice as high as in the ‘humid’ years. In the spring at the beginning of the growing season, as a rule, the level of moisture content in the arable soil layer is quite high, which leads to the formation of anaerobic conditions. They, in turn, determine the level of N2O emissions. Increasing aridity reduces the level of N2O fluxes. For ‘dry’ years, at the expense of a fairly high level of spring moisture of the arable layer at the beginning of the growing season, the level of N2O emissions was quite high (0.061-0.089 kg of N-N2O ha-1 per a ten-day period). Subsequently its level decreased significantly. In general, total greenhouse gas emissions in terms of CO2 equivalent will decrease by 6.2% in ‘dry’ years and by 32.3% in ‘humid’ years. Conclusions. Based on numerical experiments with the model of greenhouse gas emissions from soils at the winter wheat agroecosystem, the general patterns of vegetation-related variation of CO2 and N2O emissions are identified. The main patterns feature consists in increasing CO2 emissions during spring-summer vegetation of winter wheat from the beginning of a growing season to the wax ripeness phase and in decreasing N2O emissions from the beginning of the winter wheat growing season until its ending. Their peculiarities are defined by the years’ different humid conditions.

OVERVIEW OF NATURAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA, OBSERVED ON THE TERRITORY OF THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN IN 2021

The review provides information on the weather conditions, a brief description of the synoptic processes that caused the occurrence of natural meteorological phenomena, hydrometeorological and agrometeorological conditions, the state of the water surface of the Caspian Sea in 2021 (January- December) on the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Data from 209 meteorological stations of the Republican Hydrometeorological Fund of RSE "Kazhydromet" were used to prepare a review of the weather condition. The climatic norms of variables were calculated according to the recommendations of the WMO as the average long-term value for the period 1981...2010. Air temperature anomalies are defined as deviations of the observed value from the norm; precipitation anomalies were considered in fractions (percentages) of the norm. The basis for the selection of criteria for natural hydrometeorological phenomena was based on the guiding documents of the RSE "Kazhydromet" "Instructions to meteorological stations and posts. The procedure for transmitting information about dangerous and natural hydrometeorological phenomena", "Methodological guidelines for making a forecast of sea level, run-up phenomena and a bulletin on the Caspian Sea", "Guidance on the forecasting service".

Data-Driven Modeling of Vehicle-to-Grid Flexibility in Korea

With the widespread use of electric vehicles (EVs), the potential to utilize them as flexible resources has increased. However, the existing vehicle-to-grid (V2G) studies have focused on V2G operation methods. The operational performance is limited by the amount of availability resources, which represents the flexibility. This study proposes a data-driven modeling method to estimate the V2G flexibility. A charging station is a control point connected to a power grid for V2G operation. Therefore, the charging stations’ statuses were analyzed by applying the basic queuing model with a dataset of 1008 chargers (785 AC chargers and 223 DC chargers) from 500 charging stations recorded in Korea. The basic queuing model obtained the long-term average status values of the stations over the entire time period. To estimate the V2G flexibility over time, a charging station status modeling method was proposed within a time interval. In the proposed method, the arrival rate and service time were modified according to the time interval, and the station status was expressed in a propagated form that considered the current and previous time slots. The simulation results showed that the proposed method effectively estimated the actual value within a 10% mean absolute percentage error. Moreover, the determination of V2G flexibility based on the charging station status is discussed herein. According to the results, the charging station status in the next time slot, as well as that in the current time slot, is affected by the V2G. Therefore, to estimate the V2G flexibility, the propagation effect must be considered.

West Nile Fever in the Russian Federation in 2022, the Incidence Forecast for 2023

The review presents an analysis of West Nile fever (WNF) epidemiological situation in the Russian Federation in 2022 and the summarized results of monitoring over the pathogen. The following features of the WNF epidemic process in Russia are outlined: the decrease (by 4 times) in the incidence rates compared to the long-term average values against an extremely extensive nature of manifestations (16 constituent entities in 6 federal districts), including the detection of local cases in 5 new territories (Tver, Tambov, Vladimir Regions, Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District, and Karachay-Cherkess Republic), predominant registration of incidence in the Central Federal District (51 %), early start and termination of the epidemic season. There is a decrease in the proportion of neuroinvasive forms in the structure of incidence, prevalence of females and the age group of “60 years and over”, as well as record rate values of people infected at the place of residence in cities, which is associated with the peculiarities of case detection, namely, screening examinations of febrile patients in hospitals by efforts of the Reference Center, according to the results of which 60 % of all registered patients with WNF in Russia were diagnosed. Monitoring studies of the Reference Center in the territory of the Central, Southern and North-Caucasian Federal Districts confirmed the intensive circulation of the pathogen. The low level of officially registered incidence is caused by insufficiently effective identification of patients. Molecular genetic studies have shown that West Nile virus lineage 2 circulated in the European part of Russia, both in epizootic and epidemic cycles. Phylogenetic analysis has revealed that 4 West Nile virus isolates found in Astrakhan, Volgograd Regions, the Republic of Kalmykia and Stavropol Territory in 2022 belong to a new genovariant of the genotype 2, first identified in Russia in 2021. Possible complication of the epidemiological situation in all federal districts of the center and south of the European part of Russia is predicted.

Comparison on two different methods for assessment of population fertility of the Okhotsk herring on the data of standard roe survey

The main part of the spawning grounds of herring in the northwestern Okhotsk Sea, from the Ayan Bay to the Eirineiskaya Bay, was surveyed on June 3–21, 2022 using standard methods of the roe diving survey. In order to rationalize the survey methodology, the herring population fertility (PF) was evaluated using two different approaches. The first is a standard method (described by Farkhutdinov, 2005) with calculation of the spawning ground areas and the roe density (RD) for each of them. The second method is based on the relationship between the total area of spawning grounds and PF detected previously by Dulenin and Didenko (2021). The spawning conditions for Okhotsk herring were abnormal in 2022. Just before the mass spawning, a strong storm had destroyed many spawning substrates and redistributed the spawning shoals of herring in the coastal zone. As the result, mean RD was extremely low – 1075318 eggs/m2 (long-term average value was 4170320 eggs/m2), but herring spawned in new areas, additionally to usual spawning grounds, so the total area of surveyed spawning grounds was rather large, as 38.68 km2. The population fertility calculated for this total area using the relationship between these indices was 182 . 1012 eggs that corresponded to the spawning stock number (SSN) of 6.513 . 109 ind. and the spawning stock biomass (SSB) of 1.823 . 106 t. These estimates match well with results of the stock assessment by other methods. On the contrary, unrealistic low assessments were provided using the routine method with calculation of RD on the annually surveyed spawning grounds (PF 51 . 1012 eggs, SSN 1.936 . 109 ind., SSB 0.542 . 106 t), because the spawning on destructed substrate could not represent adequately the state of the herring population during 2–3 years, until restoration of the algae belt. Besides, the standard method for data processing of the roe diving surveys is based on a number of non-formalized subjective assessments and assumptions that cannot ensure verification of the survey results. In opposite to this disadvantage, the calculation of PF by the area of spawning grounds is methodologically simple and allows to use remotely operated underwater vehicles, unmanned aerial vehicles and geographic information systems, with complete hardware and software documentation of survey materials. Thus, the PF evaluation using its relationship with the total area of spawning grounds is recommended for introduction as the main method of the Okhotsk herring stock assessment.

ДИНАМИКА ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ КЛИМАТА ЕСИЛЬСКОГО ВОДОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННОГО БАССЕЙНА

The article considers climatic parameters: air temperature, precipitation, humidity, saturation deficit, wind speed and direction at meteorological stations of the Esil water basin. The intra-annual course of their distribution is given, statistical characteristics are calculated, such as the average long-term value, the standard deviation, the difference between the average long-term values for the periods 1961…1990 and 1991…2020, the angular coefficient of linear trend and the coefficient of determination. The norms of the average monthly surface air temperatures in the basin and the amount of precipitation for two consecutive periods are compared. The time series, sliding 11-year averages for the period 1941…2021 and a linear trend for the period 1976…2021 of the average monthly surface air temperature and precipitation over the territory of the Esil Water Basin are given.

QUANTITATIVE ESTIMATES OF DIRECT PYROGENIC CARBON EMISSIONS IN FORESTS OF RUSSIA ACCORDING TO REMOTE MONITORING DATA 2021

This paper presents the statistics of direct wildfire carbon emission estimates during the wildfires of 2021 on forest lands of Russia using long-term satellite data. In 2021, the area affected by forest wildfires was 9.3 million ha, while carbon emissions amounted to 66.4 MtC. Said values are almost two points higher than the long-term average values. A comparison of similar indicators for twenty years allowed us to conclude that said year was anomalous with respect to the entire time series, similar to the wildfire seasons of 2003 and 2012. A period or interval for recurrence of three anomalous wildfire seasons is nine years. The reason for the recurrence of anomalous wildfire seasons is yet to be found. At the same time, the forest areas affected by wildfires, and direct carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions in anomalous wildfire years decreased from 127.2 MtC (3.7 times) in 2003 to 83.8 MtC (2.4 times) in 2012, and to 66.4 MtC (1.9 times) in 2021.

Collapse mechanisms of a Neimark–Sacker torus

Two examples of collapse of a Neimark–Sacker torus in the Rössler system are studied. Their stability is evaluated by measuring the rotation number, defined as the long-term average value of the angular phase shift that occurs in the Poincaré map on each pass, and by theoretically calculating the same angular shift within the context of a normalized cubic model. The parameters of the cubic model are evaluated using perturbation theory applied to a limit cycle, which involves first evaluating the response after a fixed time, the known period of the limit cycle, and then calculating the additional effect due to variations in time of flight to reach a fixed plane perpendicular to velocity.For the first example of collapse, the above two methods yield the same result, namely that the collapse is characterized by a constant rotation number as we move away from the bifurcation, leading to a torus that usually coalesces into discrete branches and then collapses due to turning points. This mechanism allows us to define a simple criterion that the parameters of the cubic model must satisfy, which is related to stability. The second example of collapse is more complex: the normalized cubic model suggests correctly that the collapse will be associated with the calculated radius of the torus becoming complex, which leads to a second criterion for the cubic parameters. However, the predicted point of collapse is significantly premature. The actual torus continues to survive until the rotation number approaches zero, leading to a single wave packet of infinite duration that travels between the two known equilibrium points of the system.

ОЦЕНКА СРЕДНИХ МНОГОЛЕТНИХ ЗНАЧЕНИЙ АЭРОЗОЛЬНОЙ ОПТИЧЕСКОЙ ТОЛЩИНЫ АТМОСФЕРЫ НА ДЛИНЕ ВОЛНЫ 354 НМ НА ТЕРРИТОРИИ РОССИИ В ТЕПЛЫЙ ПЕРИОД

Based on the results of satellite measurements using OMI instrumentation (NASA, USA) at 354 nm in 2005-2020 (http://avdc.gsfc.nasa.gov) over nine populated areas in Russia, after the exclusion of cases of the smoke and dust registration in the atmosphere, approximations were obtained for temporal variations in average long-term values of atmospheric aerosol optical depth (AOD) in April to September. The approximations obtained for four most spaced-apart areas made it possible to develop a spatiotemporal model of average long-term AOD in the ultraviolet band for the territory from 43° to 60° N and from 33° to 133° E for a warm season. A verification of the model using data for the other five areas that were not included in the model development and a comparison of the results with AERONET ground data confirmed a fairly good quality of the model. An analysis of the measurement data is indicative of significant negative annual linear trends in the mean April-September AOD for all analyzed areas.

Varieties and antioxidant indices of red currant of Chelyabinsk breeding in the conditions of the Middle Urals

The unique scientific installation of the collection of live plants in the open ground "Gene pool of fruit, berry and ornamental crops in the Middle Urals" at the Sverdlovsk Breeding Station of Horticulture has about 2 thousand varieties and 80 thousand hybrids of fruit and berry crops, of which 45 varieties are red currant. The article presents the results of study of 10 red currant varieties of the South-Ural Scientific Research Institute of Horticulture and Potatoes in the conditions of the Sverdlovsk Region (Middle Urals). The prevailing weather conditions during the research period (2019-2022) affected the timing of the passage of the phenological phases of red currant varieties. In 2019 the beginning of bud break was noted from the 20th of April to the 25th of April, the beginning of flowering ‒ from the 5th of May to the 20th of May. In 2020-2021, the beginning of bud break was observed from April, 18th to April, 25th; the beginning of flowering ‒ from May, 8th to May, 13th. The beginning of ripening of berries in 2020 fell on the period from July, 14th to July, 16th; in 2021 ‒ from July, 6th to July, 8th. In 2022, the beginning of bud break was recorded from April, 26th to May, 1st, the beginning of flowering ‒ from May, 16th to May, 18th, the beginning of ripening ‒ from July, 16th to July, 18th. The shift in the dates of the onset of the main phases of vegetation can reach 10 days from the average long-term values. Preliminary results of a collection study of varieties of Chelyabinsk breeding have been obtained. On average, over 3 years of fruiting, the highest productivity was noted on the varieties Jota and Ogni Urala ‒ 1.07 kg/bush. The highest mass of berries was noted in the varieties Kapitalina, Jota, Il'inka, Beta: average ‒ 0.6...0.7 g, maximum ‒ 1.0...2.0 g. The varieties Jota, Al'fa, Alaya zor'ka, Kapitalina, Luchezarnaya, Beta, Epsilon differed in dessert taste. The highest content of antioxidants in red currant berries was found in varieties Luchezarnaya, Il'inka, Epsilon ‒ 10.99…12.65 mmol/dm3 eq.

Sea trials of Sigma wave energy converter – Power and efficiency

Sigma Energy has performed its foremost prototype tests of a scaled wave energy converter (WEC) in a real sea environment. The prototype was a point absorber with a circular buoy, a mechanical power take-off (PTO) system and a counterweight, moored to the seabed as a tension leg platform with three equal tendons. In these extensive experiments, numerous device characteristics were measured and analysed. The paper presents these sea trials, focusing on the power and efficiency of the device. The power has been calculated from the data recorded at 6 locations along the PTO system. In that way, a decay of capture width ratio (CWR) from the one absorbed from the waves to the one delivered to the electrical network was found and analysed. Also, losses of the main elements of the PTO system were defined, calculated and ranked. Optimal sea and loading conditions were indicated, giving the maximal values of the efficiencies. These optimal conditions are physically explained, and the challenges in their prediction are discussed. In addition to the results of numerous 20-min tests, the paper presents the long-term average values of the efficiencies, covering all the tests performed, and accounting for the probabilities of different sea conditions.

WATER QUALITY ASSESSMENT OF SARATA

The purpose of research: to determine the costs, chemical composition, mineralization and the state of water pollution of the small Sarata River according to ecological and sanitary criteria, specific substances of toxic action, to assess the suitability of water for irrigation according to irrigation indicators. Data and Methods. Research methods are based on systemic analysis and general principles of objectivity, causality, relevance and evolution. Of the traditional general scientific methods, observation, analysis and synthesis, comparison and analogy, generalization and abstraction, methods of mathematical statistics and probability theory are used. Formation of environmental information databases and mathematical processing of research results were carried out in Microsoft Excel, Costat, Statistic. by systematization and evaluation of the received information by tabular and graphic methods, dispersion analysis performed on a personal computer using a standard program package. Parallel statistical series of chemical analysis data contained up to 120 values for 1946–2018. Results. According to research, the width of the river Sarata in the village. Sarata varied from 0.6 to 31.9 m with an average value of 11.35 m. The average depth of river water varied from 3 to 279 cm at the greatest depth – from 7 to 346 cm. The cross-sectional area of the river water flow varied from 0.02 up to 72.9 m2 with an average value of 8.26 m2. The average water flow rate varied from 0.01 to 0.92 m/s with an average long-term value of 0.25 m/s. The maximum water flow velocities of the river varied from 0.01 to 1.29 m/s. The measured water flow rates during this period varied from 0.002 to 107 m3/s. According to the arithmetic mean values of the mineralization of the water of the Sarata river in 1953–2017 belonged to the brackish β-mesogaline 2nd class, 3 quality categories. According to the ecological quality assessment, the water of Sarata was polluted with components of salt composition chlorides and sulfates, biogenic compounds of nitrogen and phosphorus, organic substances, heavy metals (iron, manganese, copper, zinc, nickel, lead, etc.), oil products, SPAR, phenols. The calculated pollution index of river water belongs to the 6th class dirty in terms of tropho-saprobiological indicators. According to most irrigation assessment methods and the state standard of Ukraine for irrigation water, the river runoff is not suitable for soil irrigation, requires reduction of alkalinity, saturation with calcium salts and dilution with fresh water.

Morbidity of the working population in the Far Eastern Federal District in 2005–2020

Aim. To study the indicators and regional specifics of morbidity associated with temporary disability in the Subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD) of Russia.Materials and methods. A descriptive epidemiological study was performed based on retrospective data on the morbidity associated with temporary disability of the working population in FEFD as of January 01, 2021. A unified inter-agency information and statistical system was used to study the indicators of temporary disability (TD), including the number of TD cases per 100 employees and the number of TD days per 100 employees during 2005–2020. The methods of descriptive statistics were applied to differentially calculate the average annual indicators for the periods of 2005–2014 and 2015–2019 due to the adoption of the Rosstat order No. 723 dated December 25, 2014.Results. The average long-term value of the indicators of morbidity associated with temporary disability in most FEFD subjects was found to be statistically significantly higher than that in the entire Russian Federation, with higher values o bserved in 2005–2014 compared to 2015–2019. The indicators of morbidity associated with temporary disability demonstrated a more stable trend during 2015–2019. The indicators for 2020 were statistically higher than for 2015–2019, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemics.Conclusions. In view of the specific nature of the main economic sectors in FEFD (shift and seasonal work), as well as the lack of a developed social, road transport, and engineering infrastructure, data on temporary disability of the working population (including migrants) should be continuously monitored. The results obtained at this research stage can be used to develop optimal measures aimed at protecting the health of people living in the Far East of Russia.

Changes in the distribution of circum-binary material around the HMXB GX 301-2 during a rapid spin-up episode of the neutron star

ABSTRACT Some accretion-powered X-ray pulsars with supergiant companion stars undergo occasional rapid spin-up episodes that last for weeks to a few months. We explore the changes in the accretion environment of the pulsar GX 301-2 during its latest 80 days long spin-up episode in 2019 when the spin frequency of the pulsar increased by ∼2 per cent over two orbits of the binary. By performing time-resolved spectroscopy with the MAXI/GSC spectra of the source, we estimated the equivalent hydrogen column density and equivalent width of the iron fluorescence line during the spin-up episode, and compared them with the long-term average values estimated by orbital-phase-resolved spectroscopy. The measured absorption column density during the spin-up episode is about twice that of an average orbit, while the equivalent width of the iron line is less than half of an average orbit. Though the spin-up episode started immediately after a pre-periastron flare and lasted for the two consecutive orbits of the binary, the associated enhancement in luminosity started a few days after the pre-periastron flare and lasted only during the first orbit, and some enhancement was seen again during the pre-periastron passage of the second orbit. The absorption column density and iron line equivalent width vary throughout the spin-up episode and are distinct from an average orbit. These observations indicate a significant change in the accretion and reprocessing environment in GX 301-2 during the spin-up episode and may hold important clues for the phenomenon in this source and several other sources with supergiant companions.

АНАЛІЗ ГЕОФІЗИЧНИХ, МЕТЕОРОЛОГІЧНИХ ТА ГІДРОГЕОЛОГІЧНИХ ДАНИХ ДЛЯ ПОЯСНЕННЯ НЕВІДПОВІДНОСТЕЙ МІЖ ІНФІЛЬТРАЦІЄЮ ТА АТМОСФЕРНИМИ ОПАДАМИ

A traditional and non-standard approach to the analysis of estimated values of groundwater infiltration feeding using the charge sign of the electric field of the surface atmosphere is considered. A comparison of the results of hydrogeological calculations and observations from specific electrophysical and meteorological factors made it possible to explain the discrepancies between the values of infiltration nutrition and the amount of precipitation. The daily values of groundwater recharge were determined based on 41-year observations in wells in the city Khmelnyk. The average long-term value of infiltration recharge of groundwater from GWT 0.8–2.3 m was 145 mm, from GWT 2.7–4.5 m – 14.7 mm (fluctuations in the range from 129 mm to negative values). A significant correlation between the annual values of infiltration and precipitation at GWT0.8–2.3 m was observed only at the first stage of observations (1980–1988). However, there are also significant contradictions in the ratios of infiltration and precipitation, which could be explained only by involving the data of our own electrophysical observations. For the period from 2008 to 2017, the negative values of the "infiltration-temperature" correlation coefficients for the summer season changed to positive ones, which suggests an increase in the importance of moisture transfer mechanisms in the form of steam. Data on the charge sign of the static electric field of the surface layer of the atmosphere support this conclusion. At high values of the intensity of the static electric field (E) with a negative sign, the direction of moisture movement has an upward character, thanks to which evaporation from the aeration zone increases several times compared to what happens at zero values of E. And the intensity of the electric field with a positive sign forms a downward movement of moisture, which leads to an increase of GWT. From this, the cases when low values of infiltration nutrition were obtained with a significant amount of precipitation become more understandable. Conversely, the low amount of precipitation in 2014–2017 (average value 524 mm) was accompanied by high groundwater recharge (160 mm – 10 % above the norm), stable underground flow to the river in the range of 90–100 m3 /year/m and by the growth of GWT due to the positive values of the static electric field and the decrease in wind strength. This electrical factor has such a powerful influence that it is able to neutralize and effectively counteract the negative impact on groundwater recharge of temperature rise and air humidity deficiency. Since electrodynamic processes have a significant and sometimes decisive role not only in moisture transport in the aeration zone, but also in regional processes of groundwater feeding, the creation of artificial positively charged static fields above the soil surface can become the most effective safeguard against the depletion of groundwater reserves during hydrogeological drought.

ВИЗНАЧЕННЯ ТА ОЦІНКА ЗМІНИ ТИПІВ ЖИВЛЕННЯ РІЧОК БАСЕЙНУ Р. ГОРИНЬ

Using the Horyn River Basin rivers as an example the hydrograph separation algorithm was defined. The results of calculating different river feeding types values were given in the paper. Also, were analyzed their long-term dynamics. Ukrainian rivers are characterized by snow, rain, and ground (soil and underground) types of rivers feeding. The amount of snow and rain rivers feeding is determined by taking into account the characteristics of atmospheric precipitation and their correlation with water runoff characteristics. In the paper, the ground rivers feeding amount, in particular underground feeding, was established using an analytical (calculation) method. The key principles for river feeding amount determination such as graphic and geometric components of the hydrograph separation method application were described. Examples of using computer software for elementary figures areas calculating were considered. The total amount of separated hydrographs was 480. Daily observation data from 8 hydrological stations (water discharges) and 15 meteorological stations (air temperature, precipitation and snow cover height) were used for the research. Meteorological characteristics were correlated to the corresponding watersheds by determining the weight coefficient. The GIS system tools – ArcGIS were used for the catchment areas construction and their further division into separate areas of each weather station influence (Thiessen polygons). The resulting contours of the catchments were further refined on maps with a scale of 1: 50000. In general, for the period 1961-2020, it was established that the Horyn River Basin ground feeding values were from 31.6% to 68.4%; the share of snow feeding ranged from 19.7% (Horyn – Ozhenyn) to 41.6% (Smilka – Susly), and the average long-term values of the rain feeding share were ranged from 11% (Horyn – Derazhne) to 26.8% (Smilka – Susly). For Horyn River Basin rivers feeding types changes were assessed for two representative periods – 1961-1990 and 1991-2020. In general, for the Horyn River Basin in the present period (1991-2020) it was revealed a decrease in the relative values of the snow and rain feeding share by 8.4% and 1.6%, respectively, and an increase in the underground and soil feeding share by 5.7% and 4.3%, respectively.

СЕРЕДНІЙ РІЧНИЙ СТІК ВОДИ РІЧОК УКРАЇНСЬКИХ КАРПАТ У БАГАТОВОДНІ ТА МАЛОВОДНІ ФАЗИ ВОДНОСТІ

he assessment of the average annual runoff of the rivers of the Ukrainian Carpathians in the high-water and low-water phases of water was carried out on the basis of a stochastic analysis and the identification of characteristic patterns of alternation of such periods within the boundaries of the Tisza, Dniester, Prut and Siret river systems. The study was carried out using a methodological base based on statistical means of generalization, data systematization, methods for estimating temporal random sequences, methods for analyzing the long-term variability of time series of water runoff characteristics and identifying their structure. As a result of the study, the variability in the structure of the time series of the average annual water discharge of the rivers of the Ukrainian Carpathians is clearly revealed. Such variability is similar for rivers within the studied river systems and is characterized by common patterns of stochastic relationships and cyclic fluctuations. The high reliability of cycles with periods of 29 ± 2 years indicates a stable recurrence of periods of high and low water content. The graphs of the relationships between the average annual water discharges during the periods of high and low water content and their average long-term values for the rivers of the Tisza, Prut and Siret river systems on the right bank of the Dniester showed that the qualitative characteristics of such relationships are assessed as very high. The estimates of water discharge in the water phase for the rivers of the Tisza, Prut, Siret and the right bank of the Dniester basins were checked using regression equations in comparison with empirical data and their high reliability (the probability of not exceeding probable deviations in dry periods was 77%, in high-water periods – 95%), which made it possible to generalize the probable expected average water discharges in the high-water and low-water phases of the cycle, depending on the average long-term values for the rivers of the studied basins of the Ukrainian Carpathians. Such generalizations can be used for prognostic estimates of possible values of water discharge in high-water and low-water phases for any river of the Ukrainian Carpathians. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account in which system of rivers it is located, to know the average long-term water discharge and the time frame and the chronology of the water phases.

ЗМІНИ ВОДНО-БАЛАНСОВИХ СКЛАДОВИХ В МЕЖАХ ЛІВОБЕРЕЖЖЯ СЕРЕДНЬОГО ДНІПРА ЗА 1961-2020 рр.

The article examines the changes in water balance components within the left bank of the Middle Dnipro during two hydroclimatic periods, 1961-1990 and 1991-2020. The research also covered six key river basins on the left bank of the Middle Dnipro, including Psel, Sula, Vorskla, Trubizh, Supii, and Zolotonoshka. The examination of the modifications in the components of the water balance during the period of the climatic norm from 1961-1990 and the modern climatic period from 1991-2020 revealed a decrease in the average long-term values of precipitation in general by -7.3 mm, river runoff by -5.2 mm, and total evaporation by -2.1 mm. The amount of rain on the left bank of the Middle Dnipro was different in each river basin. In the Psel and Sula basins, there was a significant increase in precipitation, with a difference of 18.4 mm and +0.9 mm, respectively. In the Vorskla, Zolotonoshka, Trubizh and Supii basins, there was less rain by -2.2 to -51.7 mm. The opposite scenario was observed in the variation of total evaporation in the respective river basins. Thus, in the three largest river basins of the Psel, Sula and Vorskla, it increased from 5.6 to 26.7 mm, in all other basins the total evaporation decreased from -0.3 to -47.6 mm. But despite various changes in precipitation and total evaporation, there is a reduction in the volume of river runoff from -1.6 to -8.6 mm. The negative dynamics of river runoff indicators are attributed to negative cumulative values of precipitation and total evaporation. The main cause of these changes is the increase in the average annual air temperature across all studied basins by +1.2 °C, leading to an increase in climate aridity indicators within the left bank of the Middle Dnipro by +0.9 %. Similarly, there was a drop in the runoff coefficient by 0.9 %. In essence, changes in water balance components in the studied area result in more water volume from atmospheric precipitation going towards total evaporation, leading to a loss of the water volume that forms river runoff. This serves as a clear example of the influence of the global increase in air temperature on the reduction of water volume in rivers within the left bank of the Middle Dnipro.