Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Research Articles

Potential relocation of climatic environments suggests high rates of climate displacement within the North American protection network.

Ongoing climate change may undermine the effectiveness of protected area networks in preserving the set of biotic components and ecological processes they harbor, thereby jeopardizing their conservation capacity into the future. Metrics of climate change, particularly rates and spatial patterns of climatic alteration, can help assess potential threats. Here, we perform a continent-wide climate change vulnerability assessment whereby we compare the baseline climate of the protected area network in North America (Canada, United States, México-NAM) to the projected end-of-century climate (2071-2100). We estimated the projected pace at which climatic conditions may redistribute across NAM (i.e., climate velocity), and identified future nearest climate analogs to quantify patterns of climate relocation within, among, and outside protected areas. Also, we interpret climatic relocation patterns in terms of associated land-cover types. Our analysis suggests that the conservation capacity of the NAM protection network is likely to be severely compromised by a changing climate. The majority of protected areas (~80%) might be exposed to high rates of climate displacement that could promote important shifts in species abundance or distribution. A small fraction of protected areas (<10%) could be critical for future conservation plans, as they will host climates that represent analogs of conditions currently characterizing almost a fifth of the protected areas across NAM. However, the majority of nearest climatic analogs for protected areas are in nonprotected locations. Therefore, unprotected landscapes could pose additional threats, beyond climate forcing itself, as sensitive biota may have to migrate farther than what is prescribed by the climate velocity to reach a protected area destination. To mitigate future threats to the conservation capacity of the NAM protected area network, conservation plans will need to capitalize on opportunities provided by the existing availability of natural land-cover types outside the current network of NAM protected areas.

Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change.

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers <25% of the most vulnerable catchments. Practical steps need to be taken to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies.

Full annual cycle climate change vulnerability assessment for migratory birds

AbstractClimate change is a serious challenge faced by all plant and animal species. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are one method to assess risk and are increasingly used as a tool to inform management plans. Migratory animals move across regions and continents during their annual cycles where they are exposed to diverse climatic conditions. Climate change during any period and in any region of the annual cycle could influence survival, reproduction, or the cues used to optimize timing of migration. Therefore, CCVAs for migratory animals best estimate risk when they include climate exposure during the entire annual cycle. We developed a CCVA incorporating the full annual cycle and applied this method to 46 species of migratory birds breeding in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes (UMGL) region of the United States. Our methodology included background risk, climate change exposure × climate sensitivity, adaptive capacity to climate change, and indirect effects of climate change. We compiled information about migratory connectivity between breeding and stationary non‐breeding areas using literature searches and U.S. Geological Survey banding and re‐encounter data. Climate change exposure (temperature and moisture) was assessed using UMGL breeding season climate and winter climate from non‐breeding regions for each species. Where possible, we focused on non‐breeding regions known to be linked through migratory connectivity. We ranked 10 species as highly vulnerable to climate change and two as having low vulnerability. The remaining 34 species were ranked as moderately vulnerable. In general, including non‐breeding data provided more robust results that were highly individualistic by species. Two species were found to be highly vulnerable throughout their annual cycle. Projected drying will have the greatest effect during the non‐breeding season for species overwintering in Mexico and the Caribbean. Projected temperature increases will have the greatest effect during the breeding season in UMGL as well as during the non‐breeding season for species overwintering in South America. We provide a model for adaptive management of migratory animals in the face of projected climate change, including identification of priority species, research needs, and regions within non‐breeding ranges for potential conservation partnerships.

The impact of methodological choices on the outcome of national‐level climate change vulnerability assessments: An example from the global fisheries sector

AbstractClimate change vulnerability assessments have been receiving increasing attention from policymakers and academics. Given scarce funds for adaptation, the UNFCCC Secretariat has suggested that eligible countries be prioritized for support based on their vulnerability to climate change. National‐level fisheries sector climate change vulnerability assessments as well as other overall vulnerability assessments to date have lent support to the idea that least developed countries (LDCs) are more vulnerable to climate change than small island developing states (SIDS) and other coastal countries. We demonstrate that these perceived differences in vulnerability among country groups are partly due to methodological choices made during these assessments. We argue that national‐level vulnerability assessments, and particularly those dealing with the fisheries sector, often suffer from four main methodological shortcomings: (i) an inconsistent representation of countries belonging to each group, (ii) use of socioeconomic indicators that are not scaled to population size, (iii) use of a small number of indicators and (iv) lack of accounting for potential redundancy among indicators. Building on a previous framework, we show that by addressing the four aforementioned methodological shortcomings, the ranking in fisheries sector vulnerability among SIDS, LDCs and other coastal countries is altered significantly. Our results underscore that the vulnerability of SIDS was partially concealed in previous assessments and suggest that SIDS are in fact the most vulnerable group. Although this study focuses on assessing the vulnerability of the fisheries sector to climate change in SIDS, LDCs and other coastal countries, the implications also apply to other sectors and country groupings.

Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments.

Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.

XÁC ĐỊNH TRỌNG SỐ CỦA CÁC CHỈ THỊ TRONG ĐÁNH GIÁ TỔN THƯƠNG DO BIẾN ĐỔI KHÍ HẬU ĐẾN NGÀNH DU LỊCH TỈNH NGHỆ AN

XÁC ĐỊNH TRỌNG SỐ CỦA CÁC CHỈ THỊ TRONG ĐÁNH GIÁ TỔN THƯƠNG DO BIẾN ĐỔI KHÍ HẬU ĐẾN NGÀNH DU LỊCH TỈNH NGHỆ AN

OVERVIEW OF URBAN HEAT ISLAND (UHI) PHENOMENON TOWARDS HUMAN THERMAL COMFORT

Urban Heat Island (UHI) is expected to be a disastrous challenge to human in the following decade as a result of continuous urbanization without appropriate planning and design. The impacts of UHI are even getting worse due to large population density with improper building design especially in dense metropolitan cities. A lot of research has been carried out for UHI phenomenon both in tropical and seasonal climates. There are many factors contributing to the formation of UHI phenomenon that includes increasing rate of urbanization and population density, uncontrollable factors and controllable factors. In a fundamental study, a prolonged exposure to heat impact will significantly contribute to human discomfort and health problems resulting in heat-related illness. The cases of heat related deaths, such as heat strokes, are due to the result of climate changes and further the problem of heat waves will increase year by year. Since the consequences of UHI are considered to be more significant, the severity of the problem should be critically examined and carefully reported. Many research efforts have been implemented for making conceptual design and also a wide range of literature is available for continuing the mitigation strategies. Therefore, this study is emphasized on the critical investigation of the features, factors and impacts of UHI towards evaluating human safety and thermal comfort. Future research direction should also be encompassed on the design and planning parameters as well as assessment of climate change risks and vulnerability for reducing the effects of urban heat island onto human health and safety.

Methodological approaches to climate change vulnerability assessment of Protected Areas

Methodological approaches to climate change vulnerability assessment of Protected Areas

Assessments of species’ vulnerability to climate change: from pseudo to science

Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are important tools to plan for and mitigate potential impacts of climate change. However, CCVAs often lack scientific rigor, which can ultimately lead to poor conservation prioritization and associated ecological and economic costs. We discuss the need to improve comparability and consistency of CCVAs and either validate their findings or improve assessment of CCVA uncertainty and sensitivity to methodological assumptions.

Community risk assessment of rainfall variability under rain-fed agriculture: the potential role of local knowledge in Ghana

One of the overarching goal of vulnerability assessments to climate change is to inform Climate Change Adaptation Planning (CCAP) for minimizing livelihood vulnerability at the local level. However, a nuanced understanding of the perspectives of climate related risks among local populations affected is often lacking and or seldom explored in vulnerability assessments due to the dominance of top-down approaches. This paper explores the potential of Community Risk Assessment (CRA) and local knowledge as a bottom-up approach to community-based risk assessment of rainfall variability in Ghana. A qualitative research design involving the application of Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) methods was employed for data collection and analysis. A case is made for the potential of CRA and local knowledge in vulnerability assessment at the local level. Combining CRA with local knowledge in risk assessment of rainfall variability yielded results comparable to what is known in the climate change scientific community. The key climate related risks included shortening rainfall season, decreased rainfall intensities and amounts and irregular and unpredictable rainfall patterns. However, CRA provided localized detail about the context, local knowledge and perspectives for a nuanced understanding of climate related risks. Therefore the paper advocates CRA and a role for local knowledge in climate change vulnerability assessments in Developing Countries and Ghana in particular.Keywords: Community Risk Assessment, Local Knowledge, Vulnerability, Climate Variability, Ghana

Mapping climate change adaptive capacity and vulnerability of smallholder agricultural livelihoods in Central America: ranking and descriptive approaches to support adaptation strategies

Climate change is one of the main threats to rural livelihoods in Central America, especially for small and medium-sized farmers. Climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) integrates biophysical and socioeconomic information to support policy decisions. We present a CCVA of agricultural livelihoods of four countries in Central America, at the municipality level. We use the IPCC definition of vulnerability, and address the potential impact of climate change on suitability for major crops and adaptive capacity using indicators of basic human needs, as well as resources for innovation and action framed in a livelihoods approach. Adaptive capacity was estimated using ranking techniques for municipalities and descriptive multivariate analysis. Projected changes in climate suitability for crops show a wide variation between Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua, and within each country. Cluster analysis of adaptive capacity values shows a gradient between higher values close to urban areas and lower values in agricultural frontier areas and in those prone to drought. Municipalities with a high proportional area under subsistence crops tend to have less resources to promote innovation and action for adaptation. Our results suggest that a full spectrum of adaptation levels and strategies must be considered in the region to achieve different adaptation goals. They also show that the adaptive capacity ranking and characterization are complementary and support geographical prioritization and identification of adaptation strategies, respectively.

Beyond the single species climate envelope: a multifaceted approach to mapping climate change vulnerability

AbstractFederal land management agencies and conservation organizations have begun incorporating climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) as an important component in the management and conservation of landscapes. It is often a challenge to translate that knowledge into management plans and actions, even when research infers species risk. Predictive maps can improve current CCVAs and assist in quantifying and visualizing species climate change vulnerability across large areas. We assessed the climate change risk for Greater Sage‐Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage‐grouse) habitat at two spatial scales in Utah and Nevada. At the local scale, multiple species climate envelopes were evaluated with additional stressors (fire, conifer encroachment, invasive grass, and human impact) to create risk maps for mesic (Strawberry) and xeric (Sheeprock) sage‐grouse landscapes in Utah. Both landscapes were predicted to be at risk, but Sheeprock was found to be at higher risk due to future climate change implications coupled with additional habitat‐degrading stressors. By using models, we are able to integrate complex interactions, and visualize the distribution of risk across broad spatial scales, providing land managers and researchers a valuable tool for CCVA and action plans.

Assessing climate change vulnerability in urban America: stakeholder-driven approaches

Localized vulnerability assessments are critical to effective climate adaptation. However, the differences between how local decision-makers and experts see vulnerability have not yet been fully explored, especially in the United States. Seeing possible distinctions between these approaches is critical since it is necessary to ensure a comprehensive, accountable approach. This research explores the distinct approach of local stakeholders to conceptualizing climate vulnerability in six American cities. Sixty-five interviews of cross-sectoral local stakeholders were conducted in: Boston (MA), Los Angeles (CA), Portland (OR), Raleigh (NC), and Tampa (FL). Findings demonstrate that conceptualizations of vulnerability are affected by intellectual frameworks that tend to orient around infrastructure and human health; that retrospective and prospective thinking are inter-related and affect one another; and that institutionalized forms and biases are critical. These factors shape the way that vulnerability is conceived differently than traditional expert frameworks.

Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species' climate-change vulnerability.

Climate-change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species' vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. We took a more comprehensive approach that incorporates exposure, sensitivity, and capacity to adapt to climate change. We applied our approach to anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and nonanadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), threatened salmonids within the Columbia River Basin (U.S.A.). We quantified exposure on the basis of scenarios of future stream temperature and flow, and we represented sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change with metrics of habitat quality, demographic condition, and genetic diversity. Both species were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change at low elevations and in their southernmost habitats. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the 2 species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multispecies conservation. Based on our results, we suggest that CCVAs be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework and be used to refine hypotheses, guide research, and compare plausible scenarios of species' vulnerability to climate change.

Combining landscape variables and species traits can improve the utility of climate change vulnerability assessments

Conservation organizations worldwide are investing in climate change vulnerability assessments. Most vulnerability assessment methods focus on either landscape features or species traits that can affect a species vulnerability to climate change. However, landscape features and species traits likely interact to affect vulnerability. We compare a landscape-based assessment, a trait-based assessment, and an assessment that combines landscape variables and species traits for 113 species of birds, herpetofauna, and mammals in the northeastern United States. Our aim is to better understand which species traits and landscape variables have the largest influence on assessment results and which types of vulnerability assessments are most useful for different objectives. Species traits were most important for determining which species will be most vulnerable to climate change. The sensitivity of species to dispersal barriers and the species average natal dispersal distance were the most important traits. Landscape features were most important for determining where species will be most vulnerable because species were most vulnerable in areas where multiple landscape features combined to increase vulnerability, regardless of species traits. The interaction between landscape variables and species traits was important when determining how to reduce climate change vulnerability. For example, an assessment that combines information on landscape connectivity, climate change velocity, and natal dispersal distance suggests that increasing landscape connectivity may not reduce the vulnerability of many species. Assessments that include landscape features and species traits will likely be most useful in guiding conservation under climate change.

Spatial assessment of climate change vulnerability at city scale: A study in Bangalore, India

Integrating adaptation and mitigation response actions to climate change in urban-level policies requires comprehensive information on vulnerability patterns, yet a majority of local governments and decision makers in various cities in developing nations lack spatially explicit information on climate change vulnerability and its key drivers. In addition, there is no standardised method for an all-inclusive vulnerability assessment at the local level. Results from higher broad-scale vulnerability assessments are difficult to implement conceptually and technically at the local scale. We present a climate change vulnerability assessment approach at the city scale that considers three main components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Indicators were assessed within each component and were combined using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation (SMCE). The standardisation of indicators under each component was conducted, along with weighting, at each level of the vulnerability assessment hierarchy. The vulnerability assessment approach was applied to an urban area in India; namely, Bangalore metropolitan area. The application of vulnerability assessment approach was demonstrated and a spatial assessment of climate change vulnerability patterns was presented. The spatial pattern of vulnerability identifies areas urgently requiring attention to adaptation action, while vulnerability assessment enables policy intervention and prioritization at local spatial scales. This study presents a rational to integrate vulnerability assessment approach within the urban planning realm in Bangalore metropolitan area where according to our study approximately 91% of the area is facing high degree of climate vulnerability.

Robustness, Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of the TOPSIS Method for Quantitative Climate Change Vulnerability: a Case Study of Flood Damage

Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques have been used to evaluate and rank the spatial flood vulnerability to climate change. However, various sources of uncertainty, such as the determination of evaluation criteria, the assignment of criteria weights and performance values, exist in the application of MCDM methods. In this study, three existing methods were combined to quantify the risk and uncertainties inherent to the process of climate change vulnerability assessment, which is called the TOPSIS-based Robustness-Uncertainty-Sensitivity (RUS) approach. The A1B scenario was used to assess the vulnerability of seven metropolitan cities in South Korea to climate change. Twenty indicators that are closely related to the cause of and deterioration from the flood risk and the resulting damages were selected by two surveys of experts, and the weights of these factors were determined by using the Delphi technique, which can derive the subjective weights. Based on the derived weights, the vulnerability ranking was calculated using the TOPSIS method, one of the most popular MCDM methods. This TOPSIS-based RUS approach was used to analyze the robustness of the vulnerability rankings for the assessed cities, to derive the minimum changed weights of the single and multiple criteria that determine the rank equivalence (or reversal) between any two cities and to check the sensitivities of the performance values to the vulnerability rankings. This study showed the effectiveness of the RUS approach for assessing the vulnerability to climate change, demonstrating the application of flood vulnerability.

Hot and bothered: Using trait-based approaches to assess climate change vulnerability in reptiles

One-fifth of the world's reptiles are currently estimated as threatened with extinction, primarily due to the immediate threats of habitat loss and overexploitation. Climate change presents an emerging slow-acting threat. However, few IUCN Red List assessments for reptiles explicitly consider the potential role of climate change as a threat. Thus, climate change vulnerability assessments can complement existing Red List assessments and highlight further, emerging priorities for conservation action.Here we present the first trait-based global climate change vulnerability assessment for reptiles to estimate the climate change vulnerability of a random representative sample of 1498 species of reptiles. We collected species-specific traits relating to three dimensions of climate change, sensitivity, low adaptability, and exposure, which we combined to assess overall vulnerability.We found 80.5% of species highly sensitive to climate change, primarily due to habitat specialisation, while 48% had low adaptability and 58% had high exposure. Overall, 22% of species assessed were highly vulnerable to climate change. Hotspots of climate change vulnerability did not always overlap with hotspots of threatened species richness, with most of the vulnerable species found in northwestern South America, southwestern USA, Sri Lanka, the Himalayan Arc, Central Asia and southern India. Most families were found to be significantly more vulnerable to climate change than expected by chance.Our findings build on previous work on reptile extinction risk to provide an overview of the risk posed to reptiles by climate change. Despite significant data gaps for a number of traits, we recommend that these findings are integrated into reassessments of species' extinction risk, to monitor both immediate and slow-acting threats to reptiles.

Large-scale climate change vulnerability assessment of stream health

Freshwater streams are critical resources that provide multiple benefits to humans and aquatic biota alike. As climate changes, it is projected that changes to the hydrological cycle and water temperatures will affect individual biota and aquatic ecosystems as a whole. The goal of this study was to determine the extent of climate change impacts on stream ecosystems as represented by four commonly used stream health indicators (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa (EPT), Family Index of Biotic Integrity (FIBI), Hilsenhoff Biotic Index (HBI), and fish Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI)). Seven watersheds in Michigan were selected based on stream thermal regimes. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to simulate streamflow and pollutant loads. Important variables for each thermal class were selected using a Bayesian variable selection method and used as inputs to adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems models of EPT, FIBI, HBI, and IBI. Finally, an ensemble of climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 were used to determine the impacts of climate on the stream health in 2020–2040 compared to 1980–2000. The risk of declining stream health was determined using cumulative distribution functions. A stream temperature regression model was also developed to assess potential changes in stream thermal regimes, which could cause shifts in composition of aquatic communities. Several flow regime variables, including those related to flow variability, duration of extreme events, and timing were mainly affected by changing climate. At the watershed scale, most indicators were relatively insensitive to changing climate and the magnitude of stream health decline was low. However, at the reach scale, there are many instances of high risk and large magnitude of declines in the stream health indicators. At the same time, several streams experienced changes in thermal class, mostly transitioning from cold-transitional and cool streams to warm streams. This research demonstrated the applicability of the stream health modeling process in performing a climate change impacts assessment.

Methods of Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Community and its applications - Focused on Sabat and Pilbongoreum community in Busan, Korea

Methods of Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Community and its applications - Focused on Sabat and Pilbongoreum community in Busan, Korea