Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Ecological Characteristics Study of Abies nephrolepis in South Korea

Abstract

Abies nephrolepis is a climate-vulnerable species that inhabits high mountains in the Baekdu–Daegan range and is distributed along the southern limit line in South Korea, making it suitable for climate change research. This study aimed to observe spatial distribution changes according to scenarios using species distribution models for Abies nephrolepis, analyze the relationship between various environmental factors and Abies nephrolepis density, and contribute to the future conservation and management of subalpine coniferous forests. We conducted a field survey to identify the growth environment of Abies nephrolepis and observed potentially suitable habitats for Abies nephrolepis based on location information obtained through the survey. We also analyzed the relationship between the density of Abies nephrolepis and various environmental factors using multiple linear regression models. Based on the field survey results, most Abies nephrolepis natural habitats in South Korea showed an unstable form. Vulnerability analysis examining the influence of climate change showed that most of these habitats would be affected. We found that various biological factors were significantly related to the density of Abies nephrolepis (diameter at breast height, DBH ≥ 6 cm) and young tree density (stems/ha). We confirmed that species diversity and rock exposure variables had a relatively high impact. Clarifying the relationship between the density of Abies nephrolepis and various environmental factors can provide new insights for setting future restoration directions.