Climate Change Adaptation Zones for Terrestrial Ecosystems—A Demonstration with Pinyon-Juniper Woodlands in the USA

Abstract

Decision support tools are needed to ensure that appropriately timed and place-based adaptation is deployed in natural resource policy, planning, and management. Driven by accelerating climate change, analytical frameworks for adaptation are emerging to assist with these decisions. There is a natural relationship between climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation responses, where low to high relative climate change vulnerability suggests “resistance” to “transformation” strategies for adaptation. The NatureServe Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index (HCCVI) embodies a process for ecosystem assessment that integrates both climate and non-climate data and knowledge to document the relative vulnerability of a given habitat or ecosystem type. The framework addresses climate exposure and ecosystem resilience. Since most measures of exposure and resilience are mapped, they can be utilized to create map zones that suggest climate-smart adaptation. We applied the HCCVI to a cross-section of 10 pinyon pine and juniper woodland ecosystem types in western North America. We then demonstrate the application of these outputs to adaptation zonation. Climate exposure defines relative adaptation strategies, while measures of resilience suggest specific priorities for habitat restoration and maintenance. By the mid-21st century, 3% and 23% of the combined area of these types in the United States was categorized as Directed Transformation or Autonomous Transformation, respectively. In just 10% of the combined areas for these types, Passive Resistance strategies are suggested.