Areas Of Suitable Habitat Research Articles

Can species distribution models using remotely sensed variables inform reintroductions? Trialling methods with Carterocephalus palaemon the Chequered Skipper Butterfly

Despite large numbers of reintroduction projects taking place and the high cost involved, there is a generally low success rate. Insects in particular are understudied within reintroduction ecology, with guidelines focusing on more iconic vertebrate taxa. Species distribution models (SDMs) examine the associations between species observations and environmental variables to find the conditions in which populations could survive. This study utilises two frequently used SDM approaches, a regression model (general linear model (GLM)) and a machine learning method (MaxEnt) to model habitat suitability for Chequered Skipper, Carterocephalus palaemon, butterflies, which are being reintroduced to Northamptonshire following extinction in England. We look at how SDMs using widespread remotely sensed variables could be used to inform the reintroduction process by finding areas of suitable habitat that were previously overlooked. These remotely sensed variables have the potential to inform reintroductions without extensive on the ground research as they cover huge areas and are widely available. We found that both models are successful in discriminating between presences and absences, using only a limited number of explanatory variables. We conclude that these wide-scale SDMs are useful as a first step in the decision-making process in determining appropriate sites for reintroductions, but that they are less accurate when establishing precisely where species should be placed.

Seasonal prediction of the distribution of three major malaria vectors in China: Based on an ecological niche model.

Against the backdrop of a global malaria epidemic that remains severe, China has eradicated indigenous malaria but still has to be alert to the risk of external importation. Understanding the distribution of vectors can provide an adequate and reliable basis for the development and implementation of vector control strategies. However, with the decline of malaria prevalence in recent years, the capacity of vector monitoring and identification has been greatly weakened. Here we have used new sampling records, climatic data, and topographic data to establish ecological niche models of the three main malaria vectors in China. The model results accurately identified the current habitat suitability areas for the three species of Anopheles and revealed that in addition to precipitation and temperature as important variables affecting the distribution of Anopheles mosquitoes, topographic variables also influenced the distribution of Anopheles mosquitoes. Anopheles sinensis is the most widespread malaria vector in China, with a wide region from the northeast (Heilongjiang Province) to the southwest (Yunnan Province) suitable for its survival. Suitable habitat areas for Anopheles lesteri are concentrated in the central, eastern, and southern regions of China. The suitable habitat areas of Anopheles minimus are the smallest and are only distributed in the border provinces of southern China. On this basis, we further assessed the seasonal variation in habitat suitability areas for these three major malaria vectors in China. The results of this study provide new and more detailed evidence for vector monitoring. In this new era of imported malaria prevention in China, regular reassessment of the risk of vector transmission is recommended.

Assessment of Climate Change and Land Use/Land Cover Effects on Aralia elata Habitat Suitability in Northeastern China

Climate change and land use/land cover (LULC) change have received widespread attention as the two main factors contributing to the shrinking of plant habitats. However, the different effects of these factors on understory economic tree species are not clear. This is not conducive to the conservation and exploitation of forest resources. Here, we used species distribution modeling to predict the extent to which climate change and LULC change will affect changes in suitable habitats for A. elata under different scenarios in the future. The results showed the suitable habitat to be located in the Changbai Mountain Range in northeast China. The current area is 110,962 km2. The main variables that affect the suitable habitat are annual precipitation, LULC, slope, and mean diurnal range. The percentage contributions are 31.2%, 16.8%, 12.8%, and 12.3%, respectively. In the 2070s, the area of high-quality (moderately and highly) suitable habitat was reduced by an average of 6.05% when climate alone changed, and by an average of 10.21% when land use alone changed. When both factors changed together, there was an average decrease of 9.69%. When climate change and land use change acted together, the shrinking area of suitable habitat did not suddenly increase. These findings help to identify potentially suitable habitats for A. elata and to carry out conservation and exploitation efforts to ensure sustainability.

Assessing the Current and Future Potential Distribution of Solanum rostratum Dunal in China Using Multisource Remote Sensing Data and Principal Component Analysis

Accurate information concerning the spatial distribution of invasive alien species’ habitats is essential for invasive species prevention and management, and ecological sustainability. Currently, nationwide identification of suitable habitats for the highly destructive and potentially invasive weed, Solanum rostratum Dunal (S. rostratum), poses a series of challenges. Simultaneously, research on potential future invasion areas and likely directions of spread has not received adequate attention. This study, based on species occurrence data and multi-dimensional environmental variables constructed from multi-source remote sensing data, utilized Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in combination with the Maxent model to effectively model the current and future potential habitat distribution of S. rostratum in China, while quantitatively assessing the various factors influencing its distribution. Research findings indicate that the current suitable habitat area of S. rostratum covers 1.3952 million km2, all of which is located in northern China. As the trend of climate warming persists, the potential habitat suitability range of S. rostratum is projected to shift southward and expand in the future; while still predominantly located in northern China, it will have varying degrees of expansion at different time frames. Notably, during the period from 2040 to 2061, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the habitat area exhibits the most significant increase, surpassing the current scenario by 19.23%. Furthermore, attribution analysis based on PCA inverse transformation reveals that a combination of soil, climate, spatial, humanistic, and topographic variables collectively influence the suitability of S. rostratum habitats, with soil factors, in particular, playing a dominant role and contributing up to 75.85%. This study identifies target areas for the management and control of S. rostratum, providing valuable insights into factor selection and variable screening methods in species distribution modeling (SDM).

Conservation genetics and potential geographic distribution modeling of Corybas taliensis, a small ‘sky Island’ orchid species in China

BackgroundCorybas taliensis is an endemic species of sky islands in China. Its habitat is fragile and unstable, and it is likely that the species is threatened. However, it is difficult to determine the conservation priority or unit without knowing the genetic background and the overall distribution of this species. In this study, we used double digest restriction-site associated DNA-sequencing (ddRAD-seq) to investigate the conservation genomics of C. taliensis. At the same time, we modeled the extent of suitable habitat for C. taliensis in present and future (2030 and 2090) habitat using the maximum-entropy (MaxEnt) model.ResultsThe results suggested that the related C. fanjingshanensis belongs to C. taliensis and should not be considered a separate species. All the sampling locations were divided into three genetic groups: the Sichuan & Guizhou population (SG population), the Hengduan Mountains population (HD population) and Himalayan population (HM population), and we found that there was complex gene flow between the sampling locations of HD population. MT was distinct genetically from the other sampling locations due to the unique environment in Motuo. The genetic diversity (π, He) of C. taliensis was relatively high, but its contemporary effective population size (Ne) was small. C. taliensis might be currently affected by inbreeding depression, although its large population density may be able to reduce the effect of this. The predicted areas of suitable habitat currently found in higher mountains will not change significantly in the future, and these suitable habitats are predicted to spread to other higher mountains under future climate change. However, suitable habitat in relatively low altitude areas may disappear in the future. This suggests that C. taliensis will be caught in a ‘summit trap’ in low altitude areas, however, in contrast, the high altitude of the Himalaya and the Hengduan Mountains are predicted to act as ‘biological refuges’ for C. taliensis in the future.ConclusionsThese results not only provide a new understanding of the genetic background and potential resource distribution of C. taliensis, but also lay the foundation for its conservation and management.

Seasonal resilience of temperate estuarine fish in response to climate change

To date, the intricacies and efficacy of how periodic seasonal environmental fluctuations affect fish populations in biogeography in the context of profound climate change remain to be elucidated. Collected monitoring data on fish resources in the temperate estuary provide an excellent opportunity to assess the effects of seasonal environmental fluctuations on populations and functional assemblages under climate change. We first developed a framework for predicting habitat suitability under different climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) for 12 fish populations in the Yangtze estuary by examining the seasonal environmental affinities of temperate estuarine fishes. We then summarized the multidimensional habitat suitability responses (HSRs) of populations and functional assemblages and discussed the possible drivers and mechanisms underlying these changes. The results suggest that the acidity of the Yangtze estuary may decline in the future as the climate warms, endangering the ecosystem that many fish species depend on. Prospective climate change may have an impact on fish population HSRs through redistribution, area changes, and centroid migration of suitable habitats; nevertheless, affinity for environmental factors may be limited to distinguishing patterns of population response in the spring. Fish (5 populations) and functional assemblages (11 assemblages) may exhibit robust adaptations or non-adaptations to climate change when seasons change, given their suitable habitat area. Furthermore, projections indicate that the majority of fish habitat centroids exhibit seasonal responses, migrating northeast in the spring and southeast in the autumn. By decentralizing climate risk to seasonal scales, seasonal resilience in the multidimensional HSRs of several fish populations (5/12) and their functional assemblages (11/16) is revealed for the first time. Efforts to mitigate climate risks and safeguard resources should take these seasonal forecasts and indicative information into account.

The ecological suitability area of Cirsium lineare (Thunb.) Sch.-Bip. under future climate change in China based on MaxEnt modeling.

Many kinds of medicinal ingredients occur in Cirsium lineare that have good clinical efficacy, conferring on this species its high medicinal development value. However, with a rapidly changing global climate, it is increasingly imperative to study the factors affecting the habitat distribution and survival of species. We predicted the current and future distribution areas of suitable habitats for C. lineare, analyzed the importance of environmental variables in influencing habitat shifts, and described the alterations to suitable habitats of C. lineare in different periods (modern, 2050s, and 2070s) and scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The results show that, under the current climate, the total suitable area of C. lineare is about 2,220,900 km2, of which the highly suitable portion amounts to ca. 292,600 km2. The minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual precipitation, and mean daily temperature range are the chief environmental variables affecting the distribution of habitat for C. lineare. In the same period, with rising greenhouse gas emission concentrations, the total suitable area will increase. In general, under future climate change, the suitable habitat for C. lineare will gradually migrate to the west and north, and its total suitable area will also expand. The results of this experiment can be used for the conservation and management of the wild resources of C. lineare. We can choose suitable growth areas to protect the medicinal resources of C. lineare through insitu conservation and artificial breeding.

New surveys reveal a population stronghold for the Hoary-throated Spinetail Synallaxis kollari and Rio Branco Antbird Cercomacra carbonaria along the Guyana–Brazil border

Summary The hoary-throated spinetail and Rio Branco antbird are two bird species endemic to the Rio Branco drainage of Brazil and Guyana, currently listed as Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List. Previous assessments of both species’ global populations focused on the Brazilian state of Roraima but did not include most of its border with Guyana, where significant areas of suitable habitat remain along the Ireng (Maú) and Takutu (Tacutu) Rivers. In July and August 2021, we conducted a survey to determine the extent of each species’ geographic range along the two rivers, and to estimate population sizes. We used playback surveys along 219 km of river to ascertain each species’ distribution and intensively sampled three forest blocks to determine densities. Both species were locally abundant on both sides of the international border. Rio Branco antbird occurred over a greater geographic range than hoary-throated spinetail, particularly along the Takutu River, but was confined to a narrower zone along the river edges. Both species appear to have retreated from habitat along the Ireng River that was occupied in the past, possibly due to habitat degradation from increasingly frequent fires. Nevertheless, our minimum estimates of 1147 antbirds and 851 spinetails in the study area represent, respectively, 7.5% and 17.8 % increases over current estimates of global population sizes, and indicate that the Guyana-Brazil border region may become a critical stronghold for both species if effective conservation measures are implemented. We propose establishment of a Key Biodiversity Area encompassing the core of both species’ distributions along the border; extensive follow-up work including stakeholder engagement to explore possibilities for habitat management and protection; and further field study to increase general ecological knowledge of these two bird species.

The potential habitat of Angelica dahurica in China under climate change scenario predicted by Maxent model.

Since the 20th century, global climate has been recognized as the most important environmental factor affecting the distribution of plants. Angelica dahurica (A. dahurica) has been in great demand as a medicinal herb and flavoring, but the lack of seed sources has hindered its development. In this study, we utilized the Maxent model combined with Geographic Information System (GIS) to predict the potential habitat of A. dahurica in China based on its geographical distribution and 22 environmental factors. This prediction will serve as a valuable reference for the utilization and conservation of A. dahurica resources.The results indicated that: (1) the Maxent model exhibited high accuracy in predicting the potential habitat area of A. dahurica, with a mean value of the area under the ROC curve (AUC) at 0.879 and a TSS value above 0.6; (2) The five environmental variables with significant effects were bio6 (Min temperature of the coldest month), bio12 (Annual Precipitation), bio17 (Precipitation of Driest Quarter), elevation, and slope, contributing to a cumulative total of 89.6%. Suitable habitats for A. dahurica were identified in provinces such as Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Sichuan, Hunan, and others. The total area of suitable habitat was projected to increase, with expansion primarily in middle and high latitudes, while areas of decrease were concentrated in lower latitudes. Under future climate change scenarios, the centers of mass of suitable areas for A. dahurica were predicted to shift towards higher latitudes in the 2050s and 2090s, particularly towards the North China Plain and Northeast Plain. Overall, it holds great significance to utilize the Maxent model to predict the development and utilization of A. dahurica germplasm resources in the context of climate change.

Effects of forest conservation and management on timber, ecosystem carbon, dead wood and habitat suitability area in a boreal forest under climate change

We used forest ecosystem model simulations to study how forest conservation and management intensity affected timber yield, ecosystem carbon stocks, amount of dead wood, and habitat suitability area in a middle boreal forest region of Finland under changing climate over a 90-year simulation period. We used the following forest conservation and management scenarios: baseline forest management (BM), BM with 10 or 20% increase of conservation area with or without intensified forest management (i.e. improved forest regeneration material and forest fertilization). The simulations were done under current climate (reference period of 1981–2010), and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change projections under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 forcing scenarios. Overall, increasing the forest conservation area decreased timber yield and increased the ecosystem carbon stock, the amount of dead wood and consequently the area of suitable habitat for saproxylic species. The use of intensified forest management reduced the loss of timber yield, increased ecosystem carbon stock, the amount of dead wood and area of suitable habitat for saproxylic species. At the end of simulation period, the use of intensified forest management even overcompensated (4–6% higher) the timber loss from 10% increase of conservation area. Under changing climate, timber yield, the amount of dead wood and the area of suitable habitats for saproxylic species increased. To conclude, with intensified forest management it is possible, in the short term, to decrease the loss of timber yield through increased forest conservation area and in the long term maintain or even increase it compared to baseline forest management.

Predicting the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of a critically endangered avian scavenger, Hooded Vulture Necrosyrtes monachus, in Ghana

Environmental factors, such as climate change and anthropogenic activities, constitute the principal drivers behind the global decline of avian scavengers. In this context, understanding and predicting the impact of environmental factors on species distribution at different geographic scales is essential for identifying priority areas with significant suitable habitats for conservation. Using ensemble Species Distribution Modelling (eSDM) with georeferenced occurrence records from Ghana, this study shows that area of suitable habitats for the critically endangered Hooded Vulture (Necrosyrtes monachus) will decline under specific future climate scenarios (2060, 2080, and 2100). In particular, declines will be much higher and more rapid under fossil-fuelled development (SSP585) than in the middle of the road (SSP245) and sustainable (SSP126) climate scenario pathways, which will experience a relative increase in suitable habitats. Land use (specifically, urban areas/sparse vegetation) and precipitation in the wettest month (bio13) are the most important contributors to Hooded Vulture spatial distribution. eSDM predictions suggest that suitable habitats will contract in the South and shift up North under future climate scenarios. Further, a substantial proportion of suitable habitats (approximately 78%) lie outside the country’s protected area network, with the few represented expected to decline by the turn of the century. The approach of this study and the results appear valuable for identifying, monitoring, and intensifying conservation planning efforts in priority areas by scientists and decision-makers toward the protection of the threatened Hooded Vulture in Ghana.

Predicting the impact of climate change and land use change on the potential distribution of two economic forest trees in Northeastern China.

Young shoots of Aralia elata and young leaves of Eleutherococcus senticosus are two major non-timber forest products in northeastern China. However, human activities and climate change have resulted in serious threats to the habitats of two trees, which greatly limits resource conservation and exploitation of economic forest trees. We used the MaxEnt model to predict the suitable habitats of the two economic trees and analyzed the dominant factors affecting their distribution. The results showed that the suitable habitat areas of A. elata and E. senticosus in the current period were 159950 km2 and 123449 km2, respectively, and the suitable habitats of both economic forest trees were located in the eastern part of the northeast region. Climate factors (Annual precipitation, Precipitation Seasonality) and land use factors are important variables influencing changes in suitable habitat for both trees. With the change of climate and land use in the future, the overall trend of suitable habitat for both economic forest trees shows a northward and then a southward migration. These results may provide assistance in developing strategies for resource conservation and sustainable use of A. elata and E. senticosus, and we suggest that stable and suitable habitats should be selected as areas for in situ conservation and breeding of the two economic forest trees.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Haloxylon ammodendron under Climate Change Scenarios Using Machine Learning of a Maximum Entropy Model.

Haloxylon ammodendron (H. ammodendron) is a second-class protected plant of national significance in China that is known for its growth in desert and semidesert regions, where it serves as a desert ecosystem guardian by playing a substantial role in maintaining ecosystem structure and function. The changing global climate has substantially altered the growth conditions for H. ammodendron. This study focuses on identifying the key variables influencing the distribution of H. ammodendron and determining their potential impact on future distribution. We employed the Maxent model to evaluate the current climate suitability for H. ammodendron distribution and to project its future changes across various shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. Our findings indicate that precipitation during the warmest quarter and precipitation during the wettest month are the most influential variables affecting the potentially suitable habitats of H. ammodendron. The highly suitable habitat area for H. ammodendron currently covers approximately 489,800 km2. The Maxent model forecasts an expansion of highly suitable H. ammodendron habitat under all future SSP scenarios, with the extent of unsuitable areas increasing with greater global warming. The increased highly suitable habitats range from 40% (SSP585) to 80% (SSP126) by the 2070s (2060-2080). Furthermore, our results indicate a continued expansion of desertification areas due to global warming, highlighting the significant role of H. ammodendron in maintaining desert ecosystem stability. This study offers valuable insights into biodiversity preservation and ecological protection in the context of future climate change scenarios.

Adaptability Analysis of the Evergreen Pioneer Tree Species Schima superba to Climate Change in Zhejiang Province

In recent years, frequent global climate change has led to extreme weather events, such as high temperatures and droughts. Under the backdrop of climate change, the potential distribution zones of plants will undergo alterations. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the potential geographical distribution patterns of plants under climate change. Schima superba, a plant species with significant ecological and economic value, plays a crucial role in ecological restoration and maintaining environmental stability. Therefore, predicting potential changes in its suitable habitat in Zhejiang Province is significant. The MaxEnt model and combined data from 831 monitoring sites where Schima superba is distributed in Zhejiang Province with 12 selected bioclimatic variables were used to predict habitat suitability adaptability. We found that (1) the average AUC value of the MaxEnt model in repeated experiments was 0.804, with a standard deviation of 0.014, which indicates high reliability in predictions. (2) The total suitable habitat area for Schima superba in Zhejiang Province (suitability value > 0.05) is 87,600 km2, with high-suitability, moderate-suitability, and low-suitability areas covering 29,400 km2, 25,700 km2, and 32,500 km2, respectively. (3) Likewise, elevation, precipitation, and temperature are the dominant climatic variables that influence the distribution of Schima superba. Schima superba mainly occurs in areas with an elevation above 500 m and precipitation over 140 mm during the hottest season. The probability of Schima superba distribution reaches its peak at elevations between 1200 and 1400 m. Here, the precipitation ranges from 300 to 350 mm with high humidity, between 160 and 170 mm during the hottest season, and an annual temperature range between 28 and 31 °C. Therefore, our results indicate that climate change significantly affects the suitable habitat area of Schima superba. We also reveal the ecological characteristics and adaptation mechanisms of Schima superba in different geographical regions of Zhejiang Province. Future research should focus on the relationship between plant adaptation strategies and environmental changes, as well as applications in ecosystem protection and sustainable development, to promote the development and application of plant habitat adaptability research.

Biodiversity conservation in Myanmar's coastal wetlands: Focusing on saltwater crocodile habitats and connectivity

Landscape-level conservation strategies are needed to protect the saltwater crocodile population and habitats in Myanmar. Identifying the remaining habitats and movement corridors is essential due to population decline across coastal regions and insufficient habitat coverage, even within protected areas. This study predicts the distribution of habitats and creates low-resistance corridors that facilitate movement across the landscape. Occurrence dataset encompassing a 20-year period (1999–2019) was used incorporating records gathered from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility—GBIF, crocodile counting reports from the Meinmahla Kyun wildlife sanctuary of Myanmar, and recent spotlight and camera-trap surveys. Using landscape connectivity tools, structural compositions of habitat classes were determined, and habitat patches were delineated to simulate the least-cost corridor and dispersal pathways. Two patches in Rakhine, two in Ayeyarwady and Yangon, one in Mon, and two in Tanintharyi, were identified that include 1247 km2 of core suitable habitat areas. The Ayeyarwady Delta exhibits a plethora of suitable habitats, while the Rakhine and Tanintharyi regions have higher marginal habitats that are largely unprotected. Only 12 % of the extent of occurrence of saltwater crocodiles are suitable habitats with a high potential for occupancy. Habitats are highly fragmented and four bottlenecks are identified to assist population connectivity in those fragmented patches. Despite notable challenges in ensuring connectivity to restore populations across the habitat patches, we highlighted connectivity as the foundation for establishing an ecological network of Myanmar's coastal habitats, leveraging the saltwater crocodile as an umbrella species for the region's coastal wetlands, and identifying key areas for enhanced protection.

Climate change and anthropogenic activities shrink the range and dispersal of an endangered primate in Sichuan Province, China

The golden snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) is a rare and endemic species in China. The population of golden snub-nosed monkeys in Sichuan Province has an isolated genetic status, large population size, and low genetic diversity, making it highly vulnerable to environmental changes. Our study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of climate and land-use changes on the distribution and dispersal paths of the species in Sichuan Province. We used three general circulation models (GCMs), three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and three land-use change scenarios suitable for China to predict the potential distributions of the golden snub-nosed monkey in the current and 2070s using the MaxEnt model. The dispersal paths were identified by the circuit theory. Our results suggested that the habitats of the golden snub-nosed monkey were reduced under all three GCM scenarios. The suitable habitats for the golden snub-nosed monkey would be reduced by 82.67%, 82.47%, and 75.17% under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, compared to the currently suitable habitat area. Additionally, we found that the density of future dispersal paths of golden snub-nosed monkeys would decrease, and the dispersal resistance would increase. Therefore, relevant wildlife protection agencies should prioritize the climatically suitable distributions and key dispersal paths of golden snub-nosed monkeys to improve their conservation. We identified key areas for habitat preservation and increased habitat connectivity under climate change, which could serve as a reference for future adaptation strategies.

Numerical models reveal the suitable habitat area for the stock enhancement and release of marine organism larvae in Liaodong Bay

Stock enhancement can effectively increase population sustainablility and improve fishery resources, making it crucial to discern the suitable habitats for stock enhancement based on efficiency considerations. In this paper, a comprehensive model was established to simulate environmental characteristics in the Liaodong Bay. A habitat suitability model was developed by considering the optimal growth conditions of the Portunus trituberculatus larvae (PTL). The coupled model showed that the optimal area for stock-enhancement with PTL occurs in late June, and the initial suitable habitat area identified represents 17.12% of the whole Liaodong Bay. Based on the larval migration model of PTL, the deviation between the larvae and the suitable habitat, as well as the actual available area for stock enhancement, were further determined after larval release in the initial suitable habitat. Only 33.67% of the larvae fulfilled the criteria of remaining within the suitable habitat for 95% of the time, and these larvae represented 6.19% of the whole area of Liaodong Bay. These findings means that the truly area available for stock enhancement is likely to be a very small portion of the entire bay, and more precise release of larvae will be necessary to ensure survival rates after release. Our study actually provides a methodological framework for the identification of suitable environment of stock enhancement. This methodology can provide technical guidance for the stock enhancement of marine larvae with same applicability for other bays, which in turn contributes to the sustainable use of marine ecosystem services and fisheries resources.

Predicting Habitat Suitability and Adaptation Strategies of an Endangered Endemic Species, Camellia luteoflora Li ex Chang (Ericales: Theaceae) under Future Climate Change

Camellia luteoflora Li ex Chang is an endangered plant endemic to the East Asian flora with high ornamental value as well as phylogenetic and floristic research value. Predicting the impact of climate change on its distribution and suitable habitat is crucial until scientific conservation measures are implemented. Based on seven environmental variables and 17 occurrence records, this study optimized the MaxEnt model using the kuenm data package to obtain the optimal parameter combinations (RM = 1.3, FC = LPT) and predicted the potential distribution pattern of C. luteoflora in various future periods. The results revealed that the mean diurnal range, temperature annual range, and precipitation of the wettest month were the influential factors determining the distribution pattern of C. luteoflora, contributing 60.2%, 14.4%, and 12.3% of the variability in the data, respectively. Under the current conditions, the area of suitable habitats for C. luteoflora was only about 21.9 × 104 km2. Overall, the suitable area around the C. luteoflora distribution points will shrink in a circular pattern in response to future global warming, but some potentially suitable distribution areas will expand and migrate to higher latitudes and the Hengduan Mountains region, representing a survival strategy for coping with climate change. It is hypothesized that the future climate refugia will be the highly suitable area and the Hengduan Mountains region. Furthermore, a retrospective validation method was employed to assess the reliability of the predictions and estimate the model’s predictive performance in the future. This study proposes a survival strategy and adaptation measures for C. luteoflora in response to climate change, and the proposed measures can be generalized for application in conservation planning and restoration processes. We also recommend that future studies incorporate factors such as the anthropogenic disturbances and associated socio-economic activities related to C. luteoflora into the model and to further predict the distribution pattern for C. luteoflora in response to historical climatic changes, tracing the evolutionary history of its population.

The Minimal Impact of Anthropogenic Disturbances on the Spatial Activities of Leopard Cats in Xinlong, China.

The habitat plays a crucial role in ensuring the survival of wildlife. However, the increasing disturbances caused by human activities present a substantial threat to habitats, especially for species such as the leopard cat (Prionailurus bengalensis), which is a significant small predator. Currently, research on leopard cats predominantly focuses on low-altitude regions within its distribution range, leaving plateau areas understudied. To enhance our understanding of the impact of human disturbances on leopard cat habitats, we undertook a study employing infrared camera trappings to monitor leopard cats' activity in Xinlong of southwestern China between 2015 and 2023. We analyzed the spatial distribution and habitat suitability of the leopard cats by utilizing ensemble species distribution models (ESDMs). Moreover, we employed two-species occupancy models to investigate the spatial interaction between leopard cats and human disturbances. The results indicated that (1) the potential suitable habitat area for leopard cats encompassed approximately 1324.93 km2 (14.3%), primarily located along the banks of Yalong river. (2) The distribution of suitable habitat was predominantly influenced by competitors, specifically the yellow-throated marten (YTM), accounting for 52.4% of the influence, as well as environmental factors such as distance to water (DTW) at 12.0% and terrain roughness index (TRI) at 10.0%. Human interference, including cattle presence (4.6%), distance to road (DTD, 4.9%), and distance to settlement (DTS, 3.5%), had a limited impact on the habitat distribution. (3) Within a 5 km radius, habitat suitability increased with proximity to human settlements. (4) Leopard cats exhibited spatial independence from humans and domestic cattle (species interaction factor (SIF) = 1.00) while avoiding domestic horses (SIF = 0.76 ± 0.03). The relatively minor impact of human disturbances in Xinlong could be attributed to traditional cultural practices safeguarding wildlife and the leopard cat's environmental adaptability. We recommend establishing a novel conservation paradigm based on the living dynamics of wildlife communities in Xinlong, thereby offering a more targeted approach to biodiversity preservation in the future.

Comparative phylogeography reveals dissimilar genetic differentiation patterns in two sympatric amphibian species.

Global climate change is expected to have a profound effect on species distribution. Due to the temperature constraints, some narrow niche species could shift their narrow range to higher altitudes or latitudes. In this study, we explored the correlation between species traits, genetic structure, and geographical range size. More specifically, we analyzed how these variables are affected by differences in fundamental niche breadth or dispersal ability in the members of two sympatrically distributed stream-dwelling amphibian species (frog, Quasipaa yei; salamander, Pachyhynobius shangchengensis), in Dabie Mountains, East China. Both species showed relatively high genetic diversity in most geographical populations and similar genetic diversity patterns (JTX, low; BYM, high) correlation with habitat changes and population demography. Multiple clustering analyses were used to disclose differentiation among the geographical populations of these two amphibian species. Q. yei disclosed the relatively shallow genetic differentiation, while P. shangchengensis showed an opposite pattern. Under different historical climatic conditions, all ecological niche modeling disclosed a larger suitable habitat area for Q. yei than for P. shangchengensis; these results indicated a wider environment tolerance or wider niche width of Q. yei than P. shangchengensis. Our findings suggest that the synergistic effects of environmental niche variation and dispersal ability may help shape genetic structure across geographical topology, particularly for species with extremely narrow distribution.