Assessing the Current and Future Potential Distribution of Solanum rostratum Dunal in China Using Multisource Remote Sensing Data and Principal Component Analysis

Abstract

Accurate information concerning the spatial distribution of invasive alien species’ habitats is essential for invasive species prevention and management, and ecological sustainability. Currently, nationwide identification of suitable habitats for the highly destructive and potentially invasive weed, Solanum rostratum Dunal (S. rostratum), poses a series of challenges. Simultaneously, research on potential future invasion areas and likely directions of spread has not received adequate attention. This study, based on species occurrence data and multi-dimensional environmental variables constructed from multi-source remote sensing data, utilized Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in combination with the Maxent model to effectively model the current and future potential habitat distribution of S. rostratum in China, while quantitatively assessing the various factors influencing its distribution. Research findings indicate that the current suitable habitat area of S. rostratum covers 1.3952 million km2, all of which is located in northern China. As the trend of climate warming persists, the potential habitat suitability range of S. rostratum is projected to shift southward and expand in the future; while still predominantly located in northern China, it will have varying degrees of expansion at different time frames. Notably, during the period from 2040 to 2061, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the habitat area exhibits the most significant increase, surpassing the current scenario by 19.23%. Furthermore, attribution analysis based on PCA inverse transformation reveals that a combination of soil, climate, spatial, humanistic, and topographic variables collectively influence the suitability of S. rostratum habitats, with soil factors, in particular, playing a dominant role and contributing up to 75.85%. This study identifies target areas for the management and control of S. rostratum, providing valuable insights into factor selection and variable screening methods in species distribution modeling (SDM).