A genus at risk: Predicted current and future distribution of all three Lagopus species reveal sensitivity to climate change and efficacy of protected areas

Mattia Brambilla,Susan Cunningham,Paolo Pedrini,Nick Froese,Davide Scridel,Scott Wilson,Devin R De Zwaan,Kathy Martin

doi:10.1111/ddi.13366

Mattia Brambilla, Susan Cunningham + Show 6 more

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https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13366

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Abstract

AbstractAimCold‐adapted species are considered vulnerable to climate change. However, our understanding of how climate‐induced changes in habitat and weather patterns will influence habitat suitability remains poorly understood, particularly for species at high latitudes or elevations. Here, we assessed potential future distributions for a climate‐sensitive genus, Lagopus, and the effectiveness of protected areas in tracking shifting distributions.LocationBritish Columbia, Canada.MethodsUsing community science observations from 1970 to 2020, we built species distribution models for white‐tailed (L. leucura), rock (L. muta) and willow ptarmigan (L. lagopus) across British Columbia, a globally unique region harbouring all three ptarmigan species. We assessed the impact of climate (direct) and climate‐induced habitat change (indirect) on potential future distributions of ptarmigan.ResultsWhite‐tailed and rock ptarmigan were associated with colder temperatures and tundra‐like open habitats and willow ptarmigan with open, shrub habitats. Future projections based on climate and vegetation scenarios indicated marked losses in suitable habitat by the 2080s (RCP +8.5 W/m2), with range declines of 85.6% and 79.5% for white‐tailed and rock ptarmigan, respectively, and a lower 61.3% for willow ptarmigan. Predicted current and future suitable habitat occurred primarily outside of current protected areas (67%–82%), yet range size declined at a less pronounced rate within protected areas suggesting a capacity to buffer habitat loss.Main conclusionsPtarmigan are predicted to persist at higher elevations and latitudes than currently occupied, with the magnitude of elevation shifts consistent with trends observed elsewhere in the Holarctic. Our spatially explicit assessment of potential current and future distributions of ptarmigan species provides the first comprehensive evaluation of climate change effects on the distribution of three congeneric, cold‐adapted species with different habitat preferences and life‐history traits. We also highlight the potential role of protected areas in preserving suitable future sites for ptarmigan and other climate‐sensitive or high‐elevation species.

Highlights

Species occurring at high latitudes and elevations are considered to be vulnerable to rising temperatures, variable precipitation patterns and frequent extreme weather events emblematic of climate change (Fei et al, 2017; Pacifici et al, 2017; Wernberg et al, 2013)
We provide the first comparison of potential climate change impacts on the current and future range distributions of the entire Lagopus genus, three flagship species representatives of high-elevation and high-latitude habitats that differ in their life-history traits and ecological requisites
Willow ptarmigan will potentially gain some habitat through the effects of “shrubification” which may partially mitigate some of the predicted habitat loss for this species

Summary

Introduction

Species occurring at high latitudes and elevations are considered to be vulnerable to rising temperatures, variable precipitation patterns and frequent extreme weather events emblematic of climate change (Fei et al, 2017; Pacifici et al, 2017; Wernberg et al, 2013). Some high-latitude species have shifted their distribution poleward to match the latitudinal displacement of suitable climate, while high- elevation species are tracking cooler climates upslope (Flousek et al, 2015; Lehikoinen & Virkkala, 2016; Scridel et al, 2018; Zuckerberg et al, 2009). Simulations of future climatic scenarios predict drastic changes for Arctic and alpine wildlife species, ranging from species redistribution to the extinction of rare and endemic plants and animals (Brambilla et al, 2017; La Sorte & Jetz, 2010; Zhang et al, 2015). Assessing the future effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) in tracking shifting distributions under climate change is relevant for planning biodiversity management and conservation areas

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