Habitat suitability mapping of stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) under the effects of climate change

Abstract

Climate models predict that the Mediterranean region will experience a particularly marked increase in aridity during the 21st century when compared to other regions. This study examines the current and future potential geographical distribution of the stone pine (Pinus pinea L.), a species of considerable ecological and economic importance, in the light of aridity predictions in the Mediterranean region. For this purpose, 19 bioclimatic variables taken from the Worldclim database in 30 arc-second spatial resolution (∼1000 m) were used. The bioclimatic variables that displayed high correlations with one another when applied to 125 pieces of presence data pertaining to the species were reduced using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the current and future potential distribution areas of the species were identified using MaxEnt 3.4.1 software. To determine the future geographical distribution of the species under the impact of climate change, the Community Climate System Model (CCSM ver. 4) was used to model the potential geographical distribution areas for two climate scenarios – Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 – and two time periods (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). According to the model data, the predicted potential geographical distribution areas of the stone pine increase under the 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 RCP 4.5–8.5 scenarios and move northwards and towards higher altitudes. Knowledge of the current and future potential distribution maps of the species, and especially of the suitable/very suitable distribution areas, can be used in work on land use, afforestation, ecological restoration and the protection of the species.