Adaptability Analysis of the Evergreen Pioneer Tree Species Schima superba to Climate Change in Zhejiang Province

Abstract

In recent years, frequent global climate change has led to extreme weather events, such as high temperatures and droughts. Under the backdrop of climate change, the potential distribution zones of plants will undergo alterations. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the potential geographical distribution patterns of plants under climate change. Schima superba, a plant species with significant ecological and economic value, plays a crucial role in ecological restoration and maintaining environmental stability. Therefore, predicting potential changes in its suitable habitat in Zhejiang Province is significant. The MaxEnt model and combined data from 831 monitoring sites where Schima superba is distributed in Zhejiang Province with 12 selected bioclimatic variables were used to predict habitat suitability adaptability. We found that (1) the average AUC value of the MaxEnt model in repeated experiments was 0.804, with a standard deviation of 0.014, which indicates high reliability in predictions. (2) The total suitable habitat area for Schima superba in Zhejiang Province (suitability value > 0.05) is 87,600 km2, with high-suitability, moderate-suitability, and low-suitability areas covering 29,400 km2, 25,700 km2, and 32,500 km2, respectively. (3) Likewise, elevation, precipitation, and temperature are the dominant climatic variables that influence the distribution of Schima superba. Schima superba mainly occurs in areas with an elevation above 500 m and precipitation over 140 mm during the hottest season. The probability of Schima superba distribution reaches its peak at elevations between 1200 and 1400 m. Here, the precipitation ranges from 300 to 350 mm with high humidity, between 160 and 170 mm during the hottest season, and an annual temperature range between 28 and 31 °C. Therefore, our results indicate that climate change significantly affects the suitable habitat area of Schima superba. We also reveal the ecological characteristics and adaptation mechanisms of Schima superba in different geographical regions of Zhejiang Province. Future research should focus on the relationship between plant adaptation strategies and environmental changes, as well as applications in ecosystem protection and sustainable development, to promote the development and application of plant habitat adaptability research.