Predicting the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of a critically endangered avian scavenger, Hooded Vulture Necrosyrtes monachus, in Ghana

Abstract

Environmental factors, such as climate change and anthropogenic activities, constitute the principal drivers behind the global decline of avian scavengers. In this context, understanding and predicting the impact of environmental factors on species distribution at different geographic scales is essential for identifying priority areas with significant suitable habitats for conservation. Using ensemble Species Distribution Modelling (eSDM) with georeferenced occurrence records from Ghana, this study shows that area of suitable habitats for the critically endangered Hooded Vulture (Necrosyrtes monachus) will decline under specific future climate scenarios (2060, 2080, and 2100). In particular, declines will be much higher and more rapid under fossil-fuelled development (SSP585) than in the middle of the road (SSP245) and sustainable (SSP126) climate scenario pathways, which will experience a relative increase in suitable habitats. Land use (specifically, urban areas/sparse vegetation) and precipitation in the wettest month (bio13) are the most important contributors to Hooded Vulture spatial distribution. eSDM predictions suggest that suitable habitats will contract in the South and shift up North under future climate scenarios. Further, a substantial proportion of suitable habitats (approximately 78%) lie outside the country’s protected area network, with the few represented expected to decline by the turn of the century. The approach of this study and the results appear valuable for identifying, monitoring, and intensifying conservation planning efforts in priority areas by scientists and decision-makers toward the protection of the threatened Hooded Vulture in Ghana.