Arctic Change Research Articles

Arctic expedition cruise tourism and citizen science: a vision for the future of polar tourism

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide a conceptual framework for using citizen science – defined as a data collection method through which non-professionals engage in contributing to authentic scientific inquiry – within the expedition cruise industry to contribute significantly to the collection of environmental data from hard-to-access Arctic areas. Design/methodology/approach The authors review trends in Arctic expedition cruise tourism and current needs in Arctic research and monitoring, and clarify where the expedition cruise tourism industry could have the most impact by providing data to the scientific community. The authors also compare the regulatory context in the Antarctic to that in the Arctic and discuss how these differences could affect the widespread use of citizen science. At last, the authors describe some general principles for designing citizen science programs to be successful on board, and highlight several existing programs that are being recognized for their contributions to a greater scientific understanding of the Arctic. Findings The authors find that citizen science data from the expedition cruise industry are underutilized as a tool for monitoring Arctic change. Numerous examples illustrate how citizen science programs on-board expedition ships can successfully collect robust scientific data and contribute to enhancing the knowledge and stewardship capacity of cruise passengers. Inclusion of citizen science data from the expedition cruise industry should be considered a critical part of international Arctic observing networks and systems. Social implications Active participation in Arctic citizen science by tourists on expedition cruise ships has many potential benefits beyond the collection of high quality data, from increasing passengers’ knowledge and understanding of the Arctic while on board, to affecting their attitudes and behaviors after they return home. Originality/value The potential for tourism to contribute to Arctic observing systems has been discussed previously in the scientific literature; the authors narrow the focus to citizen science programs in the expedition cruise industry, and provide concrete examples, in the hope that this will streamline acceptance and implementation of these ideas by researchers and tourism practitioners.

Hierarchical Classification of Narwhal Subpopulations Using Social Distance

ABSTRACTEffective wildlife management and conservation require knowledge of distribution, sex composition, and age structure of a population. We explored the distribution of the Baffin Bay narwhal (Monodon monoceros) population in August 2013 by documenting sex and age distribution across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago covering 2,317,152 km2. For 6,314 narwhals identified in 3,393 aerial images taken across the Eastern Canadian Arctic, we calculated a matrix of swimming distances between all individuals. We then used a quantitative clustering approach to partition our dataset (partitioning around the medoids). The clusters obtained from the analysis supported the delimitation of the 5 narwhal management stocks currently used by the Department of Fisheries and Oceans but did not support the hypothesized division of Jones Sound and Smith Sound stocks. Across the 5 clusters, male:female ratios varied between 0.72 and 1.44 and the proportion of newborns relative to the number of females varied between 0.07 and 0.18. As a highly detailed snapshot of narwhal distribution across a very large region, our study is a step toward better documentation of the basic population information required for stock assessment, sustainable harvest, and habitat protection of narwhals in an era of rapid Arctic change. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.

Assessments of the Arctic amplification and the changes in the Arctic sea surface

Although dramatic warming is occurring in the Arctic, it is incomplete to provide an estimate to the Arctic Amplification (AA) based only on the surface air temperature (SAT) obtained at a few land stations. In this study, a comprehensive evaluation has been made with sea surface temperature (SST) and SAT from the Arctic land and ocean. Additionally, the variations of sea surface parameters were analyzed for a better understanding of the updated Arctic changes in recent years. AA was underestimated by 4.3% when only considering the SAT. During 1982–2018, the Arctic and global SSTs increased dramatically after 2002 with a near-synchronous trend in 2011–2018. Sea ice extent exhibited negative anomalies in September and March after 2002, which were more significant in September. The warming was more remarkable in March than that in September, and the negative SST anomaly entirely disappeared in March in the last two years (2017–2018). However, sea ice thickness and snow depth in September increased with the positive anomaly in the southwestern Arctic Ocean.

Arctic cryosphere change and coastal marine ecosystems working group

Arctic cryosphere change and coastal marine ecosystems working group

Ecological resilience of Arctic marine food webs to climate change

How real-world marine food webs absorb change, recover and adapt (that is, ecological resilience) to climate change remains problematic. Here we apply a novel approach to show how the complex changes in resilience of food webs can be understood with a small core set of self-organizing configurations that represent different simultaneously nested and multiple-species interactions. We identified a recent emergent pattern of an improving but possibly short-lived resilience of a highly observed Arctic marine food web (2004–2016), considered a harbinger of future Arctic change. The changes can be explained by continuing subsidiary inputs of Atlantic species that repair (self-organize) interactions within some configurations. Despite significant environmental perturbation, we found that the core ecological processes are maintained. We conclude that Arctic marine food webs can absorb and begin to adapt to ongoing climate change. The resilience of a marine food web to climate change is investigated through a combination of multiple and nested species interactions. The Kongsfjorden food web adapts and maintains core ecological processes during change, with increasing dominance of Atlantic species boosting resilience.

Negative feedback processes following drainage slow down permafrost degradation.

The sustainability of the vast Arctic permafrost carbon pool under climate change is of paramount importance for global climate trajectories. Accurate climate change forecasts, therefore, depend on a reliable representation of mechanisms governing Arctic carbon cycle processes, but this task is complicated by the complex interaction of multiple controls on Arctic ecosystem changes, linked through both positive and negative feedbacks. As a primary example, predicted Arctic warming can be substantially influenced by shifts in hydrologic regimes, linked to, for example, altered precipitation patterns or changes in topography following permafrost degradation. This study presents observational evidence how severe drainage, a scenario that may affect large Arctic areas with ice‐rich permafrost soils under future climate change, affects biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes within an Arctic floodplain. Our in situ data demonstrate reduced carbon losses and transfer of sensible heat to the atmosphere, and effects linked to drainage‐induced long‐term shifts in vegetation communities and soil thermal regimes largely counterbalanced the immediate drainage impact. Moreover, higher surface albedo in combination with low thermal conductivity cooled the permafrost soils. Accordingly, long‐term drainage effects linked to warming‐induced permafrost degradation hold the potential to alleviate positive feedbacks between permafrost carbon and Arctic warming, and to slow down permafrost degradation. Self‐stabilizing effects associated with ecosystem disturbance such as these drainage impacts are a key factor for predicting future feedbacks between Arctic permafrost and climate change, and, thus, neglect of these mechanisms will exaggerate the impacts of Arctic change on future global climate projections.

The relevance of mid-Holocene Arctic warming to the future

Abstract. There remain substantial uncertainties in future projections of Arctic climate change. There is a potential to constrain these uncertainties using a combination of paleoclimate simulations and proxy data, but such a constraint must be accompanied by physical understanding on the connection between past and future simulations. Here, we examine the relevance of an Arctic warming mechanism in the mid-Holocene (MH) to the future with emphasis on process understanding. We conducted a surface energy balance analysis on 10 atmosphere and ocean general circulation models under the MH and future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario forcings. It is found that many of the dominant processes that amplify Arctic warming over the ocean from late autumn to early winter are common between the two periods, despite the difference in the source of the forcing (insolation vs. greenhouse gases). The positive albedo feedback in summer results in an increase in oceanic heat release in the colder season when the atmospheric stratification is strong, and an increased greenhouse effect from clouds helps amplify the warming during the season with small insolation. The seasonal progress was elucidated by the decomposition of the factors associated with sea surface temperature, ice concentration, and ice surface temperature changes. We also quantified the contribution of individual components to the inter-model variance in the surface temperature changes. The downward clear-sky longwave radiation is one of major contributors to the model spread throughout the year. Other controlling terms for the model spread vary with the season, but they are similar between the MH and the future in each season. This result suggests that the MH Arctic change may not be analogous to the future in some seasons when the temperature response differs, but it is still useful to constrain the model spread in the future Arctic projection. The cross-model correlation suggests that the feedbacks in preceding seasons should not be overlooked when determining constraints, particularly summer sea ice cover for the constraint of autumn–winter surface temperature response.

Documenting lemming population change in the Arctic: Can we detect trends?

Lemmings are a key component of tundra food webs and changes in their dynamics can affect the whole ecosystem. We present a comprehensive overview of lemming monitoring and research activities, and assess recent trends in lemming abundance across the circumpolar Arctic. Since 2000, lemmings have been monitored at 49 sites of which 38 are still active. The sites were not evenly distributed with notably Russia and high Arctic Canada underrepresented. Abundance was monitored at all sites, but methods and levels of precision varied greatly. Other important attributes such as health, genetic diversity and potential drivers of population change, were often not monitored. There was no evidence that lemming populations were decreasing in general, although a negative trend was detected for low arctic populations sympatric with voles. To keep the pace of arctic change, we recommend maintaining long-term programmes while harmonizing methods, improving spatial coverage and integrating an ecosystem perspective.

A framework for assessing the economic impacts of Arctic change

The scientific literature on physical changes in the Arctic region driven by climate change is extensive. In addition, the emerging understanding of physical feedbacks and teleconnections between the Arctic and the rest of the world suggests that the warming in the Arctic region is likely to cause impacts that extend well beyond the region itself. However, there is only limited research on how Arctic change may affect economies and individual industry sectors around the world. We argue that there is a pressing need for more research on this topic and present a conceptual framework to guide future research for assessing the regional and global economic impacts of Arctic change, including both possible benefits and costs. We stress on the importance of a transdisciplinary approach, which includes an integration of the natural sciences, economics and social sciences, as well as engagement with a wide range of stakeholders to better understand and manage the implications of Arctic change.

Muskox status, recent variation, and uncertain future.

Muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) are an integral component of Arctic biodiversity. Given low genetic diversity, their ability to respond to future and rapid Arctic change is unknown, although paleontological history demonstrates adaptability within limits. We discuss status and limitations of current monitoring, and summarize circumpolar status and recent variations, delineating all 55 endemic or translocated populations. Acknowledging uncertainties, global abundance is ca 170 000 muskoxen. Not all populations are thriving. Six populations are in decline, and as recently as the turn of the century, one of these was the largest population in the world, equaling ca 41% of today’s total abundance. Climate, diseases, and anthropogenic changes are likely the principal drivers of muskox population change and result in multiple stressors that vary temporally and spatially. Impacts to muskoxen are precipitated by habitat loss/degradation, altered vegetation and species associations, pollution, and harvest. Which elements are relevant for a specific population will vary, as will their cumulative interactions. Our summaries highlight the importance of harmonizing existing data, intensifying long-term monitoring efforts including demographics and health assessments, standardizing and implementing monitoring protocols, and increasing stakeholder engagement/contributions.

Variations in Rates of Biological Production in the Beaufort Gyre as the Arctic Changes: Rates From 2011 to 2016

AbstractThe Arctic Ocean is experiencing profound environmental changes as the climate warms. Understanding how these changes will affect Arctic biological productivity is key for predicting future Arctic ecosystems and the global CO2 balance. Here we use in situ gas measurements to quantify rates of gross oxygen production (GOP, total photosynthesis) and net community production (NCP, net CO2 drawdown by the biological pump) in the mixed layer in summer or fall from 2011 to 2016 in the Beaufort Gyre. NCP and GOP show spatial and temporal variations with higher values linked with lower concentrations of sea ice and increased upper ocean stratification. Mean rates of GOP range from 8 ± 1 to 54 ± 9 mmol O2·m−2·d−1 with the highest mean rates occurring in summer of 2012. Mean rates of NCP ranged from 1.3 ± 0.2 to 2.9 ± 0.5 mmol O2·m−2·d−1. The mean ratio of NCP/GOP, a measure of how efficiently the ecosystem is recycling its nutrients, ranged from 0.04 to 0.17, similar to ratios observed at lower latitudes. Additionally, a large increase in total photosynthesis that occurred in 2012, a year of historically low sea ice coverage, persisted for many years. Taken together, these data provide one of the most complete characterizations of interannual variations of biological productivity in this climatically important region, can serve as a baseline for future changes in rates of production, and give an intriguing glimpse of how this region of the Arctic may respond to future lack of sea ice.

Associations of the edge: Arctic imaginaries

ABSTRACTThe article analyses the most recent environmental debate on Arctic warming. Three main concerns are identified. First, the debate underlines that the ongoing Arctic change is a warning of the planetary crisis to come. Second, it emphasises that this change is a symptom of epochal transition toward the Anthropocene. Third, it regards the change as an outcome of the continuing colonial repression of the extreme North. The main objective of the study on which the article is based was to evaluate these concerns as part of the main historical imaginaries of the Arctic (singled out from related literature). The method utilised was an application of ‘critical reading’ developed by post-colonial researchers. The evaluation revealed that in order to strengthen their message, environmentalists have creatively utilised and developed ancient imaginaries of the Arctic. However, at times, this coupling has in practice resulted in conceptual associations that weaken the environmentalists’ potential in formulating foundational critiques and alternatives. The evaluation of the environmental concerns also helped to sketch the contours of an Arctic development alternative that is grounded on reciprocal localisation and ethno-ecological cooperation.

Winter Arctic warming and its linkage with midlatitude atmospheric circulation and associated cold extremes: The key role of meridional potential vorticity gradient

The surface air temperature over the Eurasian continent has exhibited a significant cooling trend in recent decades (1990–2013), which has occurred simultaneously with Arctic warming and Arctic sea ice loss. While many studies demonstrated that midlatitude cold extremes are linked to Arctic warming and Arctic sea ice loss, some studies suggest that they are unrelated. The causal relationship between midlatitude cold extremes and Arctic change is uncertain, and it is thus an unsolved and difficult issue. It has been widely recognized that the severity and location of midlatitude cold extremes are closely related to the persistence, location and movement of blocking systems. It might be possible that the Arctic sea ice decline or the Arctic’s warming influences midlatitude cold extremes by changing the blocking system. This paper reviews the recent research advances on the linkages between the blocking system and Arctic warming. The nonlinear multiscale interaction model of Luo et al. revealed that the magnitude of the meridional gradient (PVy) of the background potential vorticity (PV) is a key parameter that reflects changes in the dispersion and nonlinearity of the blocking system. It was found that Arctic warming played a role in reducing the dispersion of the blocking system and enhancing its nonlinearity by reducing the magnitude of PVy. A small PVy is a favorable background condition for increasing the duration of blocking events and producing midlatitude cold extremes. However, because the magnitude of PVy reflects the difference between the background PV of the Arctic high latitudes and the midlatitude continent, the occurrence of midlatitude cold extremes not only depends on an anomalous background PV over Arctic high latitudes but also on its value over the midlatitudes. Thus, Arctic warming or sea ice decline is not necessary for the occurrence of midlatitude cold extremes.

Estimating melt onset over Arctic sea ice from time series multi-sensor Sentinel-1 and RADARSAT-2 backscatter

Information on the timing of melt onset over sea ice is important for understanding the Arctic's changing climate. The daily temporal resolution of passive microwave brightness temperatures provides the most widely utilized observations to detect melt onset but are limited to a spatial resolution of 25 km. Wide-swath synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery provides a much higher spatial resolution (20–100 m) but melt onset detection remains challenging because of i) insufficient temporal resolution to facilitate accurate melt onset detection, ii) inconsistent viewing geometries and iii) limited image availability across the Arctic. Here, we construct high temporal resolution composite gamma nought backscatter products (1 day, 1–2 day and 2–4 day) using Sentinel-1 and RADARSAT-2 over a close-to-seamless revisit region located in northern Canadian Arctic and Greenland for estimating melt onset over Arctic sea ice in 2016 and 2017. We employ the necessary radiometric terrain flattening and local resolution weighting techniques to generate normalised backscatter over the entire study region, removing restrictions limiting analysis to a single sensor or track's swath width by integrating both ascending and descending passes into the composite products. Results indicate that higher temporal resolution multi-sensor composite gamma nought products (1 day) that make use of the most imagery provide a robust temporal evolution of the backscatter. This allows for more representative estimates of melt onset as it is easier to separate the melt onset threshold from winter variability that is otherwise a considerable challenge for SAR based melt onset algorithms because of inconsistent temporal resolution. Multi-sensor composite gamma naught melt onset detection is in good agreement with melt onset estimates derived from the Advance Scatterometer (ASCAT) backscatter values and passive microwave brightness temperatures over homogenous sea ice regions but very noticeable improvement was found within narrow channels and regions with more heterogeneous sea ice. In anticipation of the availability of data from even more SAR satellites with the launch of the RADARSAT Constellation Mission, the multi-sensor composite gamma nought approach presented here may offer the most robust approach to estimate the timing of melt onset over sea ice across the Arctic using high spatiotemporal resolution SAR.

An integrated index of recent pan-Arctic climate change

We investigate climatic changes that have occurred in the Arctic over the period 1982–2017 through examination of ten observational cryospheric time series, and develop a new quantitative composite Arctic climate change index (ACCI). Using Factor Analysis highlights joint trends of winter temperature increases and sea ice loss, tundra shifts, and secondarily summer sea ice loss, spring snow loss, and Greenland land ice loss. An Arctic-wide atmospheric circulation index (Arctic Oscillation) was not selected as a joint contributor. Distinct Arctic change began in 1990 and the trend increases after 2005 to the end of the series. That most variables of the collection project onto a single pattern of change suggests that the Arctic is responding as a coherent system over the previous three decades. However, no single index exclusively tracks change in the Arctic, a conclusion that emerges from a multivariate analysis. A composite quantitative index (ACCI) is useful to document the covariability of systematic Arctic change.

The Expanding Footprint of Rapid Arctic Change

AbstractArctic land ice is melting, sea ice is decreasing, and permafrost is thawing. Changes in these Arctic elements are interconnected, and most interactions accelerate the rate of change. The changes affect infrastructure, economics, and cultures of people inside and outside of the Arctic, including in temperate and tropical regions, through sea level rise, worsening storm and hurricane impacts, and enhanced warming. Coastal communities worldwide are already experiencing more regular flooding, drinking water contamination, and coastal erosion. We describe and summarize the nature of change for Arctic permafrost, land ice, and sea ice, and its influences on lower latitudes, particularly the United States. We emphasize that impacts will worsen in the future unless individuals, businesses, communities, and policy makers proactively engage in mitigation and adaptation activities to reduce the effects of Arctic changes and safeguard people and society.

The Beaufort Gyre Extent, Shape, and Location Between 2003 and 2014 From Satellite Observations

AbstractThe Beaufort Gyre is a significant reservoir of freshwater in the Arctic. It is thought to play a key role in regulating Arctic freshwater discharge to the North Atlantic, and in recent decades its freshwater content has increased in a time of rapid Arctic change. Despite this, its exact dynamical behavior is not fully understood. Here, we make use of an Arctic‐wide dataset of dynamic ocean topography, including data under sea ice, to characterize the time‐varying extent, shape, and location of the Beaufort Gyre. We show that the gyre expanded toward the northwest between 2003 and 2014, resulting in increased proximity to the Chukchi Plateau and Mendeleev Ridge by 2014. We find that the gyre strength and maximum dynamic ocean topography both respond readily to changes in intensity of the surface forcing, but the gyre area is additionally affected by the location of the Beaufort Sea High. This results in expansion over the Chukchi Plateau and increased asymmetry of the gyre as it becomes constrained by the shallow bathymetry. The gyre strength is correlated with the integrated surface stress on the ocean over the previous 3 months. We discuss the implications of the expansion over shallow bathymetry on gyre dynamical behavior and the potential impacts on the physical properties in the Canada Basin.

The European Climate Research Alliance (ECRA): Collaboration from bottom-up

Abstract. The European Climate Research Alliance (ECRA) is an association of leading European research institutions in the field of climate research (http://www.ecra-climate.eu/, last access: 6 December 2018). ECRA is a bottom-up initiative and helps to facilitate the development of climate change research, combining the capacities of national research institutions, and inducing closer ties between existing national research initiatives, projects and infrastructures. ECRA works as an open platform to bring together climate researchers, providing excellent scientific expertise for policy makers and of societal relevance. The ECRA Board consists of representatives of ECRA partners and decides on governance, scientific priorities, and organisational matters. Currently organized into four Collaborative Programmes, climate scientists share their knowledge, experience and expertise to identify the most important research requirements for the future, thus developing a foresight approach. The CPs cover the topics: (1) Arctic variability and change, (2) Sea level changes and coastal impacts, (3) Changes in the hydrological cycle and (4) High impact events. The CP activities are planned in workshops and participation is open to all interested scientists from the relevant research fields. In particular, young researchers are actively encouraged to join the network. Each CP develops its joint research priorities for shaping European research into the future. Because scientific themes are interconnected, the four Collaborative Programmes interact with each other, e.g. through the organization of common workshops or joint applications. In addition, the Collaborative Programme leads attend the Board meetings. The different formats of ECRA meetings range from scientific workshops to briefing events and side events at conferences to involve different groups of interests. This facilitates the interaction of scientists, various stakeholder groups and politicians. A biennial open ECRA General Assembly that is organised in Brussels represents an umbrella event and acts as a platform for discussion and contact with stakeholders. This event is an excellent opportunity to jointly discuss research priorities of high societal relevance.

Меняющаяся Арктика: видение перспектив для устойчивого развития северных регионов

The Arctic is facing a combination of changes in environmental, socio-economic, institutional and legal frameworks which define the futures of sustainable development of the northern regions. Impact of climate change is among the key variables in selection of societal responses to emerging challenges and to design of adaptive governance options under ongoing transformations. Innovative system of climate services in the Arctic is one of its core elements; it is at the initial stages of formation, and active international discussion is underway today about the emerging global, regional and national markets for climate services. The authors present methods and results of joint research conducted by IMEMO RAS as a partner of 44 members of international scientific consortia Blue Action under the EU Horizon-2020 Research and Innovation Programme. The article discusses major approaches to climate services for sustainable development in the Arctic, including the requirements of the end-users from various sectors and activities. It describes the participatory co-design of their future structure and challenges identified by various stakeholders from the North, as well as their vision incorporated into three foresight scenarios for Yamal 2040 that had been developed by the project partners. Among them are the so-called “Reinventing Itself”, “Gas Boom” and “Snow Queen”. They are based on a set of environmental, socio-economic, technological and political factors and drivers of the Arctic change that might affect the pathways for Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YNAO) sustainable development. The outcomes from these scenarios allow various stakeholders to identify possible opportunities and risks, and to undertake beforehand the effective response actions to adapt to future transformations. &nbsp

How is sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic changing?

How is sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic changing?