Меняющаяся Арктика: видение перспектив для устойчивого развития северных регионов

Abstract

The Arctic is facing a combination of changes in environmental, socio-economic, institutional and legal frameworks which define the futures of sustainable development of the northern regions. Impact of climate change is among the key variables in selection of societal responses to emerging challenges and to design of adaptive governance options under ongoing transformations. Innovative system of climate services in the Arctic is one of its core elements; it is at the initial stages of formation, and active international discussion is underway today about the emerging global, regional and national markets for climate services. The authors present methods and results of joint research conducted by IMEMO RAS as a partner of 44 members of international scientific consortia Blue Action under the EU Horizon-2020 Research and Innovation Programme. The article discusses major approaches to climate services for sustainable development in the Arctic, including the requirements of the end-users from various sectors and activities. It describes the participatory co-design of their future structure and challenges identified by various stakeholders from the North, as well as their vision incorporated into three foresight scenarios for Yamal 2040 that had been developed by the project partners. Among them are the so-called “Reinventing Itself”, “Gas Boom” and “Snow Queen”. They are based on a set of environmental, socio-economic, technological and political factors and drivers of the Arctic change that might affect the pathways for Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YNAO) sustainable development. The outcomes from these scenarios allow various stakeholders to identify possible opportunities and risks, and to undertake beforehand the effective response actions to adapt to future transformations. &nbsp