Abstract
The scientific literature on physical changes in the Arctic region driven by climate change is extensive. In addition, the emerging understanding of physical feedbacks and teleconnections between the Arctic and the rest of the world suggests that the warming in the Arctic region is likely to cause impacts that extend well beyond the region itself. However, there is only limited research on how Arctic change may affect economies and individual industry sectors around the world. We argue that there is a pressing need for more research on this topic and present a conceptual framework to guide future research for assessing the regional and global economic impacts of Arctic change, including both possible benefits and costs. We stress on the importance of a transdisciplinary approach, which includes an integration of the natural sciences, economics and social sciences, as well as engagement with a wide range of stakeholders to better understand and manage the implications of Arctic change.
Highlights
The Arctic has been changing at unprecedented rates over the past three decades driven by climate change, with the average rate of warming in the region twice as high as the global average (IPCC 2013; Overland et al 2015)
We argue that estimating the benefits and costs of Arctic warming requires a number of complementary methodologies and models, including specialised climate and ecosystem models, Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and both regional and global macroeconomic models
The paper is structured as follows: ‘‘A framework for assessing the economic impacts from Arctic change’’ section introduces a framework for assessing the economic impacts from Arctic change and methods to appraise it; ‘‘Economic opportunities and regional impacts from a melting Arctic’’ section focusses on the economic benefits and direct regional impacts resulting from a melting Arctic; ‘‘Indirect global impacts via Arctic feedbacks and teleconnections, and secondary economic knock-on effects’’ section addresses the indirect global impacts from Arctic change, followed by concluding remarks in ‘‘Conclusion’’ section
Summary
The Arctic has been changing at unprecedented rates over the past three decades driven by climate change, with the average rate of warming in the region twice as high as the global average (IPCC 2013; Overland et al 2015). Yumashev et al (2019) assessed non-linear transitions in Arctic feedbacks driven by the loss of land permafrost, snow and sea ice covers, and estimated the resulting impacts on the global climate and economy under various climate mitigation scenarios. Despite this progress, the literature still lacks a comprehensive framework for assessing the costs and benefits of Arctic change. The paper is structured as follows: ‘‘A framework for assessing the economic impacts from Arctic change’’ section introduces a framework for assessing the economic impacts from Arctic change and methods to appraise it; ‘‘Economic opportunities and regional impacts from a melting Arctic’’ section focusses on the economic benefits and direct regional impacts resulting from a melting Arctic; ‘‘Indirect global impacts via Arctic feedbacks and teleconnections, and secondary economic knock-on effects’’ section addresses the indirect global impacts from Arctic change, followed by concluding remarks in ‘‘Conclusion’’ section
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