Abstract
The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report suggests that the projected increase in the global temperature in future scenarios could cause different impacts in different regions of the world. For the Polar Regions the global models are being adapted to measure these changes, but the preliminary results indicate large heating for the Arctic region. The changes on Arctic region are not a problem just for a future climate: the Arctic amplification, the decrease on Arctic sea ice extent and on snow cover extent is a present concern for climatologists. Studies suggest a link between Arctic changes and mid-latitude weather, as the changes on Arctic Region where observed accompanied by changes in other regions of the world, especially in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude. Some mechanisms are proposed to explain this link, and one of then is related to changes in the atmospheric moisture transport from middle latitudes. Recent studies have shown that the Mediterranean Sea, North Atlantic Ocean and North Pacific Ocean appear as the main regions that contribute as moisture sources to the Arctic Region. The objective of this work is to use the output of GFDL/CM3 Model for 2046–2075 and 2070–2099 periods to identify the regions of the main change on moisture sources that contributes to the Arctic Region in a future scenario (RCP4.5) compared to a present climate (1980–2005). For both future periods analysed, the results suggest that the contribution for Arctic moisture by the regions located on North Atlantic Ocean, North Africa and Middle East enhanced. This may indicate an increase in moisture transport from mid-latitude to Arctic that could lead to several changes in Arctic climate: warming, decrease on sea ice extent and on snow cover.
Highlights
Observational and modeling studies indicate that the water cycle is affected by changes in world temperature, in this way, is expected that in a warmer planet there will be important changes on water cycle [1]
For each region (Z1, Z2, M1 and M2) the mean value for VIMF in zonal (VIMFz) and VIMFm for the present period using Era Interim and GFDL/CM3 Model and for the future periods are showed on Table 1
For M1 region the correlation is positive and there is an increase in VIMFm for the two future periods in relation to the present; for M2 region the correlation is negative and the data show a decrease in VIMFm for the two future periods in relation to the present; for Z1 region the correlation is negative and there is a decrease in VIMFz for future periods; and for Z2 region the correlation is positive and VIMFz decrease for FUT1 and increase for FUT2
Summary
Observational and modeling studies indicate that the water cycle is affected by changes in world temperature, in this way, is expected that in a warmer planet there will be important changes on water cycle [1]. The changes on Arctic climate is a concern, where extreme temperatures were registered on this century with an increase two times faster than the global average (Arctic amplification) [3] Associated to this warming, it was observed a decrease on Arctic sea ice extent (the largest declined rate occurred in September: 12,4% per decade since 1979) [4]; and on snow cover extent (loss rate: 53% from 1959 to 2000) [5]. At the same time that these changes where observed on the Arctic, other regions of the world, especially in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, showed the occurrence of extreme heat and rainfall events [3] These facts suggest a possible link between Arctic change and mid-latitude weather. Some dynamical changes where proposed by [3] to explain this link: changes in storm tracks, weakeaning of the jet stream, and changes on configuration of the planetary waves [3]
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