Alternative Climate Change Scenarios Research Articles

Projecting spatiotemporal dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in the mainland of China.

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease with increasing incidence and geographic extent. The extent to which global climate change affects the incidence of SFTS disease remains obscure. We use an integrated multi-model, multi-scenario framework to assess the impact of global climate change on SFTS disease in China. The spatial distribution of habitat suitability for the tick Haemaphysalis longicornis was predicted by applying a boosted regression tree model under four alternative climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) for the periods 2030-2039, 2050-2059, and 2080-2089. We incorporate the SFTS cases in the mainland of China from 2010 to 2019 with environmental variables and the projected distribution of H. longicornis into a generalized additive model to explore the current and future spatiotemporal dynamics of SFTS. Our results demonstrate an expanded geographic distribution of H. longicornis toward Northern and Northwestern China, showing a more pronounced change under the RCP8.5 scenario. In contrast, the environmental suitability of H. longicornis is predicted to be reduced in Central and Eastern China. The SFTS incidence in three time periods (2030-2039, 2050-2059, and 2080-2089) is predicted to be increased as compared to the 2010s in the context of various RCPs. A heterogeneous trend across provinces, however, was observed, when an increased incidence in Liaoning and Shandong provinces, while decreased incidence in Henan province is predicted. Notably, we predict possible outbreaks in Xinjiang and Yunnan in the future, where only sporadic cases have been reported previously. These findings highlight the need for tick control and population awareness of SFTS in endemic regions, and enhanced monitoring in potential risk areas.

Climate-sensitive hydrological drought insurance for irrigated agriculture under deep uncertainty. Insightful results from the Cega River Basin in Spain

This paper assesses the feasibility and robustness of an index-based insurance scheme against hydrological droughts under climate change. To this end, we develop a grand ensemble that samples both modeling and scenario uncertainty in the estimation of the insurance risk premium, so to reveal potential unfavorable surprises and minimize regret in the design of the proposed insurance scheme. The grand ensemble combines four microeconomic models and seven GAMLSS models, which are run for three alternative climate change scenarios: stationary climate/no climate change, RCP 2.6, and RCP 8.5. Methods are illustrated with an application to the Cega River Sub-basin (CRS) in central Spain. Results indicate that for a conventional deductible of 30%, the proposed index-based insurance scheme would be actuarially feasible and affordable under all models for the stationary climate scenario (i.e., robust). For climate change scenarios RCP 2.6 and 8.5 and a 30% deductible, the suggested index-based insurance would be actuarially feasible under most models, albeit some outliers point towards potential unfavorable surprises. Lower deductibles decrease feasibility, particularly for deductibles <10%.

Study protocol: International joint research project 'climate change resilience of Indigenous socioecological systems' (RISE).

BackgroundAnthropogenic changes in the environment are increasingly threatening the sustainability of socioecological systems on a global scale. As stewards of the natural capital of over a quarter of the world’s surface area, Indigenous Peoples (IPs), are at the frontline of these changes. Indigenous socioecological systems (ISES) are particularly exposed and sensitive to exogenous changes because of the intimate bounds of IPs with nature. Traditional food systems (TFS) represent one of the most prominent components of ISES, providing not only diverse and nutritious food but also critical socioeconomic, cultural, and spiritual assets. However, a proper understanding of how future climate change may compromise TFS through alterations of related human-nature interactions is still lacking. Climate change resilience of indigenous socioecological systems (RISE) is a new joint international project that aims to fill this gap in knowledge.Methods and designRISE will use a comparative case study approach coupling on-site socioeconomic, nutritional, and ecological surveys of the target ISES of Sakha (Republic of Sakha, Russian Federation) and Karen (Kanchanaburi, Thailand) people with statistical models projecting future changes in the distribution and composition of traditional food species under contrasting climate change scenarios. The results presented as alternative narratives of future climate change impacts on TFS will be integrated into a risk assessment framework to explore potential vulnerabilities of ISES operating through altered TFS, and possible adaptation options through stakeholder consultation so that lessons learned can be applied in practice.DiscussionBy undertaking a comprehensive analysis of the socioeconomic and nutritional contributions of TFS toward the sustainability of ISES and projecting future changes under alternative climate change scenarios, RISE is strategically designed to deliver novel and robust science that will contribute towards the integration of Indigenous issues within climate change and sustainable agendas while generating a forum for discussion among Indigenous communities and relevant stakeholders. Its goal is to promote positive co-management and regional development through sustainability and climate change adaptation.

Rural outmigration in Northeast Brazil: Evidence from shared socioeconomic pathways and climate change scenarios

Climate change negatively impacts agricultural production influencing the rural-to-urban migration options of the population. In this study, we investigate the effects of expected climate change on population distribution and outmigration from rural areas of the Northeast region of Brazil (NEB) over the coming decades under different socioeconomic and climate scenarios. Demographic projection models to 2060 were created based on assumptions of future fertility, mortality, migration, and educational transition. Results reveal that changes in rural population size and composition and rural outmigration may emerge depending on future climatic conditions, agricultural income, and education. The highly-educated population can adapt with changes in climate and avoid income loss while earnings of those with lower education are reduced. The latter's outmigration option is also limited because of lower qualifications. Policies should support economically vulnerable populations especially those dependent on agriculture. Also, policies must accommodate alternative climate change scenarios and their consequences on rural population displacement.

Predicting current and future global distribution of black rockfish (Sebastes schlegelii) under changing climate

Changes in the marine environment, particularly climate change, can have large effects on the distribution patterns of various marine species, and alter the biodiversity, structure and functions of the affected ecosystems. Species distribution models (SDM) are tools often used to link species’ ecological niches with their environment. We applied SDM to investigate the effects of five biologically relevant climatic variables from multiple databases, including bottom temperature, bottom salinity, current velocity, depth and primary productivity, on habitat suitability of Sebastes schlegelii in the marine waters of China, Korea and Japan. Nine individual SDM and an ensemble model were used to predict the current and future distribution of S. schlegelii under alternative climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP). Results indicated that the ensemble model produced more accurate projections than any individual model. Among the environmental variables investigated, bottom temperature was the most important in determining the range of S. schlegelii. Its current distribution demonstrated that suitable habitat for S. schlegelii was mostly concentrated in the Bohai Sea, coastal areas of the central and northern Yellow Sea, and in the Sea of Japan. Negative effects from climate change on the distribution patterns of S. schlegelii were predicted to lead to varying degrees of habitat reduction, with highest estimate of 45% occurring under RCP8.5 at the end of 2100. Our results illustrate the potential effects of climate change on the future distribution of S. schlegelii populations and can assist with implementing adaptive management measures of this species.

Extreme Heat Related Mortality: Spatial Patterns and Determinants in the United States, 1979–2011

Extreme heat has been responsible for more deaths in the United States than any other weather-related phenomenon over the past decade. The frequency and intensity of extreme heat events are projected to increase over the course of this century. In this work, we examine historical patterns of extreme heat exposure and mortality in the continental United States. We examine spatial variation in the mortality response to exposure, consider the contribution of key demographic and socio-economic factors in driving heat-related mortality, and test three different extreme heat thresholds using a national-level spatial autoregressive model and a geographically weighted regression approach. We find that the mortality response to exposure is higher in areas that do not routinely experience heat extremes, and that exposure itself is a stronger driver of heat-related mortality across the larger urban areas of the Midwest and Northeast. The importance of demographic/socio-economic factors varies substantially over space, and results are robust across alternative measures of heat extremes, suggesting that no single definition is necessarily superior. The baseline relationships established here are potentially useful for future predictions of exposure and heat-related mortality under alternative population and climate change scenarios, and may aid policy makers and planners in implementing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Resource management and sustainable development: A review of the European water policies in accordance with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals

Recent policy developments in Europe consider the importance of water ecosystems to human wellbeing and the detrimental effects that multiple pressures may have on them. Several directives and measures which culminated with the design and the implementation of the Water Framework Directive, have attempted to address the issue of sustainable water management while aligning with targets of economic development. We review the European Water Framework Directive keeping in mind the commitment to the United Nation’ Agenda to 2030 with the aim to identify complementarities and missing parts in aligning regional policies to global targets for sustainable development. Towards this end the management plans in selected river basins, Ebro-Spain, Adige-Italy, Evrotas-Greece, Sava- Slovenia, Serbia, Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina and Anglian-UK, are examined. The analysis shows that despite significant steps towards integrated management of water bodies in Europe, it is still necessary to improve policy design and implementation to align with global sustainable development targets. Appropriate supportive methodologies must be developed that consider the socio-economic and environmental dimensions of water management. Policies should aim for environmental agreements, alternative climate change scenarios, transparent quantitative measures targeting sustainable demand of water and explicit infrastructure and knowledge transfer channels which can accelerate the implementation of sustainable water management at regional and global level.

Modeling Subtropical Forest Changes under Climate Change and Close-to-Nature Silviculture: Is There a Tipping Point in an Uncertain Future in Southern China?

Subtropical forests face pressure from both rapidly changing climate and increasing harvest activity in southern China. However, the interactive effects of various spatial processes on forests are not well known. The objective of the present study was to answer the question of how forest aboveground biomass (AGB) changes under alternative climate change and harvesting scenarios and to determine whether there will be a tipping point for forest AGB before 2300. Our simulation results show that, although total forest AGB did not reach a tipping point before 2300 under possible climate change and harvesting scenarios, the slope of the total forest AGB showed a decreasing trend around 2100 and 2200. Moderate climate warming was conducive to AGB accumulation, except for in the high emissions Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario. Our results also indicate that timber harvesting is adaptable to the accumulation of biomass under climate change scenarios. Harvesting intensity was a key variable affecting forest AGB more than harvesting frequency. Our findings will help develop more sustainable forest management strategies that can adapt to potential climate change scenarios, as well as determining the effectiveness of implementing alternative forest harvesting policies.

Long-term historical and projected herbivore population dynamics in Ngorongoro crater, Tanzania.

The Ngorongoro Crater is an intact caldera with an area of approximately 310 km2 located within the Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA) in northern Tanzania. It is known for the abundance and diversity of its wildlife and is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and an International Biosphere Reserve. Long term records (1963–2012) on herbivore populations, vegetation and rainfall made it possible to analyze historic and project future herbivore population dynamics. NCA was established as a multiple use area in 1959. In 1974 there was a perturbation in that resident Maasai and their livestock were removed from the Ngorongoro Crater. Thus, their pasture management that was a combination of livestock grazing and fire was also removed and 'burning' stopped being a regular occurrence until it was resumed in 2001 by NCA management. The Maasai pasture management would have selected for shorter grasses and more palatable species. Vegetation mapping in 1966–1967 recorded predominately short grasslands. Subsequent vegetation mapping in the crater in 1995 determined that the grassland structure had changed such that mid and tall grasses were dominant. After removal of the Maasai pastoralists from the Ngorongoro Crater in 1974, there were significant changes in population trends for some herbivore species. Buffalo, elephant and ostrich numbers increased significantly during 1974–2012. The zebra population was stable from 1963 to 2012 whereas population numbers of five species declined substantially between 1974 and 2012 relative to their peak numbers during 1974–1976. Grant’s and Thomson’s gazelles, eland, kongoni, and waterbuck (wet season only) declined significantly in the Crater in both seasons after 1974. In addition, some herbivore species were consistently more abundant inside the Crater during the wet than the dry season. This pattern was most evident for the large herbivore species requiring bulk forage, i.e., buffalo, eland, and elephant. Even with a change in grassland structure, total herbivore biomass remained relatively stable from 1963 to 2012, implying that the crater has a stable carrying capacity. Analyses of rainfall indicated that there was a persistent cycle of 4.83 years for the annual component. Herbivore population size was correlated with rainfall in both the wet and dry seasons. The relationships established between the time series of historic animal counts in the wet and dry seasons and lagged wet and dry season rainfall series were used to forecast the likely future trajectories of the wet and dry season population size for each species under three alternative climate change scenarios.

Assessing the potential impacts of climate and population change on land-use changes projected to 2100 in Japan

CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 79:139-149 (2019) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01580 Assessing the potential impacts of climate and population change on land-use changes projected to 2100 in Japan Tomohiro Fujita1,*, Toshinori Ariga1, Haruka Ohashi2, Yasuaki Hijioka1, Keita Fukasawa3 1Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan 2Department of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1, Matsunosato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8687, Japan 3Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan *Corresponding author: fujita.tomohiro@nies.go.jp ABSTRACT: Projecting land-use changes can help with identifying potential threats to biodiversity and ecosystem function, thus mitigating impacts on human livelihoods. We examined changes in 6 land-use categories in Japan: paddy fields, croplands, forests, wastelands, built-up areas, and other artificial land cover. Land-use changes were projected to the year 2100 while considering effects from climate and population change. We developed regression models to project proportional changes in land-use areas using predictors derived from a previous dataset. Using these models, we projected future trends of each land-use type under alternative climate and population change scenarios. Our results revealed that, in Japan, climate change is likely to have a greater impact on croplands, forests, and wastelands, whereas population change has more influence on paddy fields, built-up areas, and other artificial land cover. For example, proportional changes in forest area did not vary much among population change scenarios but differed substantially among climate change scenarios. In contrast, proportional changes in the areas of paddy fields did not vary much among climate change scenarios but differed greatly among population change scenarios. Our results also indicated that land-use changes can vary by region. Although the total area of paddy fields decreased nationally by the year 2100, paddy field area was projected to increase in Hokkaido, especially under the scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions (an increase of 2228 km2, +95.7%). Our study confirms that climate and population change will affect future land-use changes in Japan. KEY WORDS: Demographics · Random forest · Land-use change · Paddy · Biodiversity Full text in pdf format Supplementary material PreviousNextCite this article as: Fujita T, Ariga T, Ohashi H, Hijioka Y, Fukasawa K (2019) Assessing the potential impacts of climate and population change on land-use changes projected to 2100 in Japan. Clim Res 79:139-149. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01580 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 79, No. 2. Online publication date: December 05, 2019 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 2019 Inter-Research.

Effects of climate change and fishing on the Pearl River Estuary ecosystem and fisheries

Climate change poses a challenge to the management of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Estuarine ecosystems in particular are exposed to a broad range of environmental changes caused by the effects of climate change both on land and in the ocean, and such ecosystems have also had a long history of human disturbance from over-exploitation and habitat changes. In this study, we examine the effects of climate change and fishing on the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) ecosystem using Ecopath with Ecosim. Our results show that changes in net primary production and ocean warming are the dominant climatic factors impacting biomass and fisheries productivity in the PRE. Additionally, physiological changes of fishes and invertebrates that are induced by climate change were projected to be modified by trophic interactions. Overall, our study suggests that the combined effects of climate change and fishing will reduce the potential fisheries catches in the PRE. Reducing fishing efforts can reduce the impacts of climate change on selected functional groups; however, some prey fishes are expected to experience higher predation mortality and consequently decreases in biomass under low fishing intensity scenarios. Thus, our study highlights the non-linearity of the responses of estuarine ecosystems when climate change interacts with other human stressors. In this study, the whole-ecosystem model (Ecopath with Ecosim) is used to examine the effects of climate change and fishing on a highly developed estuarine ecosystem (Pearl River Estuary, PRE) in the subtropical western Pacific. The oceans variables are extracted from the global earth system model (GFDL ESM2M), including changes in sea surface temperature (SST), hydrogen ion concentration (pH), dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration and net primary production (NPP) under the two scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. We developed a EwE model of the PRE ecosystem and simulated the effects of changing ocean conditions under alternative climate change scenarios as well as three fishing scenarios on the biodiversity and fisheries productivity of the PRE.

Diné kinship as a framework for conserving native tree species in climate change.

Climate change affects all ecosystems but despite increasing recognition for the needs to integrate Indigenous knowledge with modern climate science, the epistemological differences between the two make it challenging. In this study, we present how Indigenous belief and knowledge system can frame the application of a modeling tool (Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator). We focus on managing forest ecosystem services of the Diné (Navajo) Nation as a case study. Most Diné tribal members depend directly on the land for their livelihoods and cultural traditions. The forest plays a vital role in Diné livelihoods through social, cultural, spiritual, subsistence, and economic factors. We simulated forest dynamics over time under alternative climate change scenarios and management strategies to identify forest management strategies that will maintain future ecosystem services. We initialized the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator model with data from permanent plots and site-specific growth models under multiple management systems (no-management, thinning, burning, and assisted migration planting) and different climate scenarios (no-climate-change, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0). Projections of climate change show average losses of basal area by over 65% by 2105, a shift in tree species composition to drier-adapted species, and a decrease in species diversity. While substantial forest loss was inevitable under the warming climate scenarios, the modeling framework allowed us to evaluate the management treatments, including planting, for conserving multiple tree species in mixed conifer forests, thus providing an anchor for biodiversity. We presented the modeling results and management implications and discuss how they can complement Diné kinship concepts. Our approach is a useful step for framing modern science with Indigenous Knowledge and for developing improved strategies to sustain natural resources and livelihoods.

Trade‐offs and synergies between bird conservation and wildfire suppression in the face of global change

AbstractThe combined effects of climate change and other factors, such as land‐use change or fire disturbance, pose daunting challenges for biodiversity conservation world‐wide.We predicted the future effectiveness of the Natura 2000 (N2000), the current network of protected areas (PA) in Europe, at maintaining and representing suitable environmental conditions for a set of 79 bird species between 2000 and 2050 in a fire‐prone area, strongly affected by land abandonment processes in North East Spain. We then compared PA performance with a set of alternative priority areas for conservation, which consider fire‐vegetation dynamics, selected by using a conservation planning tool (Marxan). Fire‐vegetation dynamics were modelled using a process‐based model (Medfire Model) under alternative fire management and climate change scenarios. Bird communities were predicted using the spatially explicit species assemblage modelling framework (SESAM) and species distribution models that hierarchically integrate climate change and wildfire‐vegetation dynamics.The amount of suitable environmental conditions within the N2000 network was predicted to fall by around 15%, on average, over the next decades in relation to the initial conditions but could be partially modulated by fire management policies in future. The efficiency of the current PA system was predicted to decrease from 17.4% to 15% between 2000 and 2050. However, a more efficient PA system could be achieved with a conservation planning approach that explicitly considers fire‐vegetation dynamics and their management.Synthesis and applications. Our findings show: (a) how the current Natura 2000 could still hold an important bird conservation value by 2050; (b) how the relocation of some protected areas should be considered in order to substantially increase bird conservation effectiveness; and (c) how the integration of fire‐vegetation dynamics, fire management policies and their objectives within conservation planning provide “win–win” solutions for bird conservation and fire prevention in fire‐prone abandoned landscapes.

Land use changes could modify future negative effects of climate change on old‐growth forest indicator species

AbstractAimClimate change is expected to have major impacts on terrestrial biodiversity at all ecosystem levels, including reductions in species‐level distribution and abundance. We aim to test the extent to which land use management, such as setting‐aside forest from production, could reduce climate‐induced biodiversity impacts for specialist species over large geographical gradients.LocationSweden.MethodsWe applied ensembles of species distribution models based on citizen science data for six species of red‐listed old‐forest indicator fungi confined to spruce dead wood. We tested the effect on species habitat suitabilities of alternative climate change scenarios and varying amounts of forest set‐aside from production over the coming century.ResultsWith 3.6% of forest area set‐aside from production and assuming no climate change, overall habitat suitabilities for all six species were projected to increase in response to maturing spruce in set‐aside forest. However, overall habitat suitabilities for all six species were projected to decline under climate change scenario RCP4.5 (intermediate–low emissions), with even greater declines projected under RCP 8.5 (high emissions). Increasing the amount of forest set‐aside to 16% resulted in significant increases in overall habitat suitability, with one species showing an increase. A further increase to 32% forest set‐aside resulted in considerably more positive trends, with three of six species increasing.Main conclusionsThere is interspecific variation in the importance of future macroclimate and resource availability on species occurrence. However, large‐scale conservation measures, such as increasing resource availability through setting aside forest from production, could reduce future negative effects from climate change, and early investment in conservation is likely to reduce the future negative impacts of climate change on specialist species.

Simulating the impact of climate change on the growth of Chinese fir plantations in Fujian province, China

BackgroundClimate change represents a considerable source of uncertainty with respect to the long-term health and productivity of Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.) plantations in southeastern China.MethodsWe employed the process-based, stand-level model FORECAST Climate to investigate the potential impact of four alternative climate-change scenarios on the long-term growth and development of Chinese fir plantations in Fujian province, China. The capability of the model to project seasonal patterns of productivity related to variation in temperature and moisture availability was evaluated using 11 years of 8-day composite MODIS remote sensing data.ResultsSimulation results suggest climate change will lead to a modest increase in long-term stemwood biomass production (6.1 to 12.1% after 30 to 60 years). The positive impact of climate change was largely attributable to both a lengthening of the growing season and an increase in nutrient-cycling rates. The increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations associated with the different emission scenarios led to an increase in water-use efficiency and a small increase in productivity. While the model predicted an overall increase in dry-season moisture stress, it did not predict increased levels of drought-related mortality.ConclusionsClimate change is expected have positive impact on the growth of Chinese fir in the Fujian region of China. However, the projected increase in plantation productivity associated with climate change may not be realised if the latter also results in enhanced activity of biotic and abiotic disturbance agents.

Using a rule-based envelope model to predict the expansion of habitat suitability within New Zealand for the tick Haemaphysalis longicornis, with future projections based on two climate change scenarios

Haemaphysalis longicornis is the only species of tick present in New Zealand which infests livestock and is also the only competent vector for Theileria orientalis. Since 2012, New Zealand has suffered from an epidemic of infectious bovine anaemia associated with T. orientalis, an obligate intracellular protozoan parasite of cattle and buffaloes. The aim of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of habitat suitability of New Zealand for the tick H. longicornis using a simple rule-based climate envelope model, to validate the model against published data and use the validated model to project an expansion in habitat suitability for H. longicornis under two alternative climate change scenarios for the periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100, relative to the climate of 1981–2010.A rule-based climate envelope model was developed based on the environmental requirements for off-host tick survival. The resulting model was validated against a maximum entropy environmental niche model of environmental suitability for T. orientalis transmission and against a H. longicornis occurrence map. Validation was completed using the I-similarity statistic and by linear regression.The H. longicornis climate envelope model predicted that 75% of cattle farms in the North Island, 3% of cattle farms in the South Island and 54% of cattle farms in New Zealand overall have habitats potentially suitable for the establishment of H. longicornis. The validation methods showed an acceptable level of agreement between the envelope model and published data. Both of the climate change scenarios, for each of the time periods, projected only slight to moderate increases in the average farm habitat suitability scores for all the South Island regions. However, only for the West Coast, Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson regions did these increases in environmental suitability translate into an increased proportion of cattle farms with low or high H. longicornis habitat suitability.These results will have important implications for the geographical progression of Theileria-associated bovine anaemia (TABA) in New Zealand and will also be of interest to Haemaphysalis longicornis researchers in Australia, Japan, Korea and New Zealand.

Subnational violent conflict forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa, 2015–65, using climate-sensitive models

How will local violent conflict patterns in sub-Saharan Africa evolve until the middle of the 21st century? Africa is recognized as a particularly vulnerable continent to environmental and climate change since a large portion of its population is poor and reliant on rain-fed agriculture. We use a climate-sensitive approach to model sub-Saharan African violence in the past (geolocated to the nearest settlements) and then forecast future violence using sociopolitical factors such as population size and political rights (governance), coupled with temperature anomalies. Our baseline model is calibrated using 1° gridded monthly data from 1980 to 2012 at a finer spatio-temporal resolution than existing conflict forecasts. We present multiple forecasts of violence under alternative climate change scenarios (optimistic and current global trajectories), of political rights scenarios (improvement and decline), and population projections (low and high fertility). We evaluate alternate shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) by plotting violence forecasts over time and by detailed mapping of recent and future levels of violence by decade. The forecasts indicate that a growing population and rising temperatures will lead to higher levels of violence in sub-Saharan Africa if political rights do not improve. If political rights continue to improve at the same rate as observed over the last three decades, there is reason for optimism that overall levels of violence will hold steady or even decline in Africa, in spite of projected population increases and rising temperatures.

Regional effects of alternative climate change and management scenarios on timber production, economic profitability, and carbon stocks in Norway spruce forests in Finland

We studied regional effects of alternative climate change and management scenarios on timber production, its economic profitability (net present value (NPV), with 2% interest rate), and carbon stocks over a 90 year simulation period in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests located in southern, central, and northern Finland. We also compared the results of optimised management plans (maximizing incomes) and fixed management scenarios. Business as usual (BAU) management recommendations were used as the basis for alternative management scenarios. The forest ecosystem model SIMA together with a forest optimisation tool was employed. To consider the uncertainties related to climate change, we applied two climate change scenarios (SRES B1 and SRES A2) in addition to the current climate. Results showed that timber production, NPV, and carbon stocks of forests would reduce in southern Finland, opposite to northern Finland, especially under the strong climate change scenario (SRES A2) compared with the current climate. In central Finland, climate change would have little effect. The use of optimised management plans also resulted in higher timber yield, NPV, and carbon stock of forests compared with the use of a single management scenario, regardless of forest region and climate scenario applied. In the future, we may need to modify the current BAU management recommendations to properly adapt to the changing climatic conditions.

Predictions of future ephemeral springtime waterbird stopover habitat availability under global change

In the present period of rapid, worldwide change in climate and landuse (i.e., global change), successful biodiversity conservation warrants proactive management responses, especially for long‐distance migratory species. However, the development and implementation of management strategies can be impeded by high levels of uncertainty and low levels of control over potentially impactful future events and their effects. Scenario planning and modeling are useful tools for expanding perspectives and informing decisions under these conditions. We coupled scenario planning and statistical modeling to explain and predict playa wetland inundation (i.e., presence/absence of water) and ponded area (i.e., extent of water) in the Rainwater Basin, an anthropogenically altered landscape that provides critical stopover habitat for migratory waterbirds. Inundation and ponded area models for total wetlands, those embedded in rowcrop fields, and those not embedded in rowcrop fields were trained and tested with wetland ponding data from 2004 and 2006–2009, and then used to make additional predictions under two alternative climate change scenarios for the year 2050, yielding a total of six predictive models and 18 prediction sets. Model performance ranged from moderate to good, with inundation models outperforming ponded area models, and models for non‐rowcrop‐embedded wetlands outperforming models for total wetlands and rowcrop‐embedded wetlands. Model predictions indicate that if the temperature and precipitation changes assumed under our climate change scenarios occur, wetland stopover habitat availability in the Rainwater Basin could decrease in the future. The results of this and similar studies could be aggregated to increase knowledge about the potential spatial and temporal distributions of future stopover habitat along migration corridors, and to develop and prioritize multi‐scale management actions aimed at mitigating the detrimental effects of global change on migratory waterbird populations.

Application of a Hybrid Forest Growth Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts on Productivity, Nutrient Cycling and Mortality in a Montane Forest Ecosystem.

Climate change introduces considerable uncertainty in forest management planning and outcomes, potentially undermining efforts at achieving sustainable practices. Here, we describe the development and application of the FORECAST Climate model. Constructed using a hybrid simulation approach, the model includes an explicit representation of the effect of temperature and moisture availability on tree growth and survival, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. The model also includes a representation of the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency, but no direct CO2 fertilization effect. FORECAST Climate was evaluated for its ability to reproduce the effects of historical climate on Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine growth in a montane forest in southern British Columbia, Canada, as measured using tree ring analysis. The model was subsequently used to project the long-term impacts of alternative future climate change scenarios on forest productivity in young and established stands. There was a close association between predicted sapwood production and measured tree ring chronologies, providing confidence that model is able to predict the relative impact of annual climate variability on tree productivity. Simulations of future climate change suggest a modest increase in productivity in young stands of both species related to an increase in growing season length. In contrast, results showed a negative impact on stemwood biomass production (particularly in the case of lodgepole pine) for established stands due to increased moisture stress mortality.