Abstract
In the present period of rapid, worldwide change in climate and landuse (i.e., global change), successful biodiversity conservation warrants proactive management responses, especially for long‐distance migratory species. However, the development and implementation of management strategies can be impeded by high levels of uncertainty and low levels of control over potentially impactful future events and their effects. Scenario planning and modeling are useful tools for expanding perspectives and informing decisions under these conditions. We coupled scenario planning and statistical modeling to explain and predict playa wetland inundation (i.e., presence/absence of water) and ponded area (i.e., extent of water) in the Rainwater Basin, an anthropogenically altered landscape that provides critical stopover habitat for migratory waterbirds. Inundation and ponded area models for total wetlands, those embedded in rowcrop fields, and those not embedded in rowcrop fields were trained and tested with wetland ponding data from 2004 and 2006–2009, and then used to make additional predictions under two alternative climate change scenarios for the year 2050, yielding a total of six predictive models and 18 prediction sets. Model performance ranged from moderate to good, with inundation models outperforming ponded area models, and models for non‐rowcrop‐embedded wetlands outperforming models for total wetlands and rowcrop‐embedded wetlands. Model predictions indicate that if the temperature and precipitation changes assumed under our climate change scenarios occur, wetland stopover habitat availability in the Rainwater Basin could decrease in the future. The results of this and similar studies could be aggregated to increase knowledge about the potential spatial and temporal distributions of future stopover habitat along migration corridors, and to develop and prioritize multi‐scale management actions aimed at mitigating the detrimental effects of global change on migratory waterbird populations.
Highlights
Global-scale changes in climate and landuse stress ecosystems through processes such as habitat destruction, degradation and fragmentation; biological invasions; and long-term changes in average temperature and precipitation (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment [MEA] 2005, Melillo et al 2014)
Several studies have documented positive relationships between nutrient reserves acquired in stopover areas and annual recruitment (Alisauskas 2002, Klaassen et al 2006, Devries et al 2008); active conservation of remnant and restored stopover habitats is critical for maintaining viability in North American migratory waterbird populations, and in the future
We address knowledge gaps related to the drivers of playa wetland ponding in the Rainwater Basin, an intensively cultivated landscape within the Central Flyway that provides critical waterbird stopover habitat, but for which predictive ponding models have not yet been developed
Summary
Global-scale changes in climate and landuse (i.e., global change) stress ecosystems through processes such as habitat destruction, degradation and fragmentation; biological invasions; and long-term changes in average temperature and precipitation (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment [MEA] 2005, Melillo et al 2014). An excellent example of wildlife management under uncertainty, intensive landscape modification, and unfolding climatic change is provided in North American waterbird populations, many of which undertake semi-annual, cross-continental migrations between northern breeding grounds and southern wintering grounds (Bellrose 1980, Newton 2008). Changing climatic conditions and landscape alterations introduce additional stressors that complicate the phenology of long-distance migration (Moeller et al 2008, Fontaine et al 2009). Several studies have documented positive relationships between nutrient reserves acquired in stopover areas and annual recruitment (Alisauskas 2002, Klaassen et al 2006, Devries et al 2008); active conservation of remnant and restored stopover habitats is critical for maintaining viability in North American migratory waterbird populations, and in the future
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
