Abstract
Climate change introduces considerable uncertainty in forest management planning and outcomes, potentially undermining efforts at achieving sustainable practices. Here, we describe the development and application of the FORECAST Climate model. Constructed using a hybrid simulation approach, the model includes an explicit representation of the effect of temperature and moisture availability on tree growth and survival, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. The model also includes a representation of the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency, but no direct CO2 fertilization effect. FORECAST Climate was evaluated for its ability to reproduce the effects of historical climate on Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine growth in a montane forest in southern British Columbia, Canada, as measured using tree ring analysis. The model was subsequently used to project the long-term impacts of alternative future climate change scenarios on forest productivity in young and established stands. There was a close association between predicted sapwood production and measured tree ring chronologies, providing confidence that model is able to predict the relative impact of annual climate variability on tree productivity. Simulations of future climate change suggest a modest increase in productivity in young stands of both species related to an increase in growing season length. In contrast, results showed a negative impact on stemwood biomass production (particularly in the case of lodgepole pine) for established stands due to increased moisture stress mortality.
Highlights
IntroductionForest health and productivity are being affected by anthropogenic climate change
Worldwide, forest health and productivity are being affected by anthropogenic climate change
FORECAST was designed to accommodate a wide variety of harvesting and silvicultural systems in order to compare and contrast their effect upon forest productivity, stand dynamics and a series of biophysical indicators of nontimber stand values
Summary
Forest health and productivity are being affected by anthropogenic climate change. The frequency and intensity of catastrophic natural disturbance agents, for example, are rising [1,2,3,4]. Evidence suggests that unusually severe drought events have triggered a significant rise in mortality rates in forested regions throughout the world [5, 6]. Climate change is expected to influence long-term forest productivity through its effect on moisture availability. Application of a Forest Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Life Sciences Programming, on the other hand, provided support in the form of salaries for author KS, but did not have any additional role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The specific roles of the authors are articulated in the ‘author contributions’ section
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