Abstract
Future climate change will result in profound shifts in the distribution and abundance of biodiversity in the Tropical Andes, and poses a challenge to contemporary conservation planning in the region. However, currently it is not well understood where the impacts of climate disruption will be most severe and how conservation policy should respond. This study examines climate change impacts in the Peruvian Andes, with a specific focus on tropical montane forest ecosystems, which are particularly susceptible to climate change. Using an ensemble of classification models coupled with different climate change scenarios, we estimate high and low potential impacts on montane forest, by projecting which areas will become climatically unsuitable to support montane forest ecosystems by 2070. These projections are subsequently used to examine potential impacts on protected areas containing montane forest. The modeling output indicates that climate change will have a high potential impact on 58% of all montane forests, particularly in the elevation range between 800 and 1200 m.a.s.l. Furthermore, about 64% of montane forests located in protected areas will be exposed to high potential impact. These results highlight the need for Peru’s conservation institutions to incorporate climate change considerations into prevailing conservation plans and adaptation strategies. To adjust to climate change, the adaptive capacity of forest ecosystems in the Peruvian Andes should be enhanced through restorative and preventive conservation measures such as improving forest functions and mitigating deforestation and forest degradation pressures.
Highlights
A growing body of literature points out that changing climate conditions will become a major threat to global biodiversity within the 100 years [1,2,3]
We develop an ecosystem-based modeling approach to examine where and to what extent a change in climatic conditions could impact montane forest ecosystems. Given their biodiversity significance and high sensitivity to climate change, we focus on Peruvian Andes forest ecosystems
The modeling outcomes point to an area of about 68,000 km
Summary
A growing body of literature points out that changing climate conditions will become a major threat to global biodiversity within the 100 years [1,2,3]. Climate-induced changes in the spatial distribution and extent of the world’s major vegetation classes have already been observed [5]. As it appears, climate change is inevitable and increasing in magnitude over time [6]. Location-specific dispersal barriers imposed by topographic gradients and landscape fragmentation are rarely addressed in biogeographic models [13]. These limitations of models to more accurately forecast where ecosystems and individual species will move as climate changes, poses a critical difficulty in conservation planning [14]
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