Abstract
AbstractAimClimate change is expected to have major impacts on terrestrial biodiversity at all ecosystem levels, including reductions in species‐level distribution and abundance. We aim to test the extent to which land use management, such as setting‐aside forest from production, could reduce climate‐induced biodiversity impacts for specialist species over large geographical gradients.LocationSweden.MethodsWe applied ensembles of species distribution models based on citizen science data for six species of red‐listed old‐forest indicator fungi confined to spruce dead wood. We tested the effect on species habitat suitabilities of alternative climate change scenarios and varying amounts of forest set‐aside from production over the coming century.ResultsWith 3.6% of forest area set‐aside from production and assuming no climate change, overall habitat suitabilities for all six species were projected to increase in response to maturing spruce in set‐aside forest. However, overall habitat suitabilities for all six species were projected to decline under climate change scenario RCP4.5 (intermediate–low emissions), with even greater declines projected under RCP 8.5 (high emissions). Increasing the amount of forest set‐aside to 16% resulted in significant increases in overall habitat suitability, with one species showing an increase. A further increase to 32% forest set‐aside resulted in considerably more positive trends, with three of six species increasing.Main conclusionsThere is interspecific variation in the importance of future macroclimate and resource availability on species occurrence. However, large‐scale conservation measures, such as increasing resource availability through setting aside forest from production, could reduce future negative effects from climate change, and early investment in conservation is likely to reduce the future negative impacts of climate change on specialist species.
Highlights
International conservation targets aim to protect species and ecosystems in the face of climate change and human land use pressures
The exception was P. ferrugineofuscus, which showed a continuous increase in habitat suitabilities in set-asides under 32% RCP4.5, suggesting that forest changes consistently had a stronger effect than climatic changes for this species under this scenario (Figure 2b)
For six species of fungi in an intensively managed landscape, we found that designating 3.6% of forest as legally protected reserves over the coming century was likely to be insufficient to maintain habitat suitabilities, and population sizes, under climate change
Summary
International conservation targets aim to protect species and ecosystems in the face of climate change and human land use pressures. The intensive exploitation of forests leads to loss of old-growth forests and, subsequently, biodiversity loss (Gauthier et al, 2015) To reduce such negative impacts, legally protected and voluntarily set-aside forest can be designated with the aim of allowing forest to develop naturally. There is a lack of knowledge of how conservation strategies such as setting-aside forest from production could modify climate-induced biodiversity losses at large geographical scales It is unclear how the relative importance of land use and climate change effects on biodiversity may vary over time (Pawson et al, 2013). We test (1) the impact of different climate change scenarios, (2) the effect of increasing the area of forest set-aside from production and (3) whether forest management has the potential to facilitate an increase in habitat suitability at the southern range edge for all six study species, despite climatic changes
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