Rural outmigration in Northeast Brazil: Evidence from shared socioeconomic pathways and climate change scenarios

Abstract

Climate change negatively impacts agricultural production influencing the rural-to-urban migration options of the population. In this study, we investigate the effects of expected climate change on population distribution and outmigration from rural areas of the Northeast region of Brazil (NEB) over the coming decades under different socioeconomic and climate scenarios. Demographic projection models to 2060 were created based on assumptions of future fertility, mortality, migration, and educational transition. Results reveal that changes in rural population size and composition and rural outmigration may emerge depending on future climatic conditions, agricultural income, and education. The highly-educated population can adapt with changes in climate and avoid income loss while earnings of those with lower education are reduced. The latter's outmigration option is also limited because of lower qualifications. Policies should support economically vulnerable populations especially those dependent on agriculture. Also, policies must accommodate alternative climate change scenarios and their consequences on rural population displacement.