Securing food under adverse climate and socioeconomic scenarios in Jiangsu Province, China: Critical role of human adaptation under change

East Africa has a substantially greater rate of food insecurity than other regions of the world. Scenarios of climate change and other macroeconomic variables are important contributors to food insecurity in East Africa. Using data spanning from 1990 to 2020, this study looked into the influence of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, economic growth, population growth, trade openness, and agricultural employment on food security in the East Africa. The fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models were used in this study. The heterogeneous panel cointegration test's findings indicated that the study variables have an equilibrium long-term connections. The estimation findings from the FMOLS and DOLS models showed that an increase in CO2 emissions increases food security in the East Africa over the long term. According to other findings, long-term food security is positively impacted by economic expansion, population growth, trade openness, and employment in agriculture. However, trade openness has a detrimental long-lasting effect on food security. Future research directions, research limitations, and policy implications are discussed.

Food Security Under The Era Of Climate Change Threat

Microbial surface water quality is important, as it is related to health risk when the population is exposed through drinking, recreation or consumption of irrigated vegetables. The microbial surface water quality is expected to change with socio-economic development and climate change. This study explores the combined impacts of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on microbial water quality using a coupled hydrodynamic and water quality model (MIKE21FM-ECOLab). The model was applied to simulate the baseline (2014-2015) and future (2040s and 2090s) faecal indicator bacteria (FIB: E. coli and enterococci) concentrations in the Betna river in Bangladesh. The scenarios comprise changes in socio-economic variables (e.g. population, urbanization, land use, sanitation and sewage treatment) and climate variables (temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise). Scenarios have been developed building on the most recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways: SSP1 and SSP3 and Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in a matrix. An uncontrolled future results in a deterioration of the microbial water quality (+75% by the 2090s) due to socio-economic changes, such as higher population growth, and changes in rainfall patterns. However, microbial water quality improves under a sustainable scenario with improved sewage treatment (-98% by the 2090s). Contaminant loads were more influenced by changes in socio-economic factors than by climatic change. To our knowledge, this is the first study that combines climate change and socio-economic development scenarios to simulate the future microbial water quality of a river. This approach can also be used to assess future consequences for health risks.

Perennial export crops such as cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) and coffee (Coffea spp. L.) contribute indirectly to food security by providing an income that can be used to buy food, household goods and/or supplies for the cultivation of basic food crops. Thus, any perennial crop loss incurred due to the effects of climate change will also negatively impact food security and, more generally, the livelihoods of smallholders, farmers and rural communities. It is foreseen that in the not so distant future (2050), climate change and increased land use for food crop production, to meet increasing demands for food as the world’s population increases, will negatively impact global production of perennial crops such as coffee and cocoa by reducing the availability of land suitable for their cultivation. Furthermore, the current trend towards full sun systems with excessive use of external inputs (agrochemicals, irrigation) increases the vulnerability of the cocoa and coffee sectors to climate change. To reconcile the need for food crops and the demand for export crops such as coffee and cocoa, under the scenarios of climate change and population growth, innovative production systems have to be developed. Such systems should also contribute to the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change and provide other ecosystem services such as regulation of pests and diseases. Agroforestry systems are some of the production systems which can address these manifold demands. Here, ideas for the development of competitive and sustainable agroforestry systems and the evaluation of their environmental benefits are presented and reviewed.

The present paper evaluates the composite risk of anthropogenic and climate change on the future water status in Jordan during the period 2030–2050. The projected water status in the country is evaluated based on the more likely population growth and climate change scenarios. The most likely figure for the population of Jordan, excluding refugees from neighboring countries, in 2040 would be ∼15 million people. Given this likely projection, though conservative, annual water needs for the domestic sector alone are expected to be between 700 and 800 million m3, with the current level of water consumption. A rise in near surface air temperature by 2 °C and a drop in total precipitation by 15%, as projected by most Global Circulation Models, would diminish renewable water resources in the mountainous region by ∼ 25–40%, being more severe as aridity increases.1. IntroductionThere is almost a consensus among earth scientists that the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is lea...

The direct and indirect health effects of increasingly warmer temperatures are likely to further burden the already overcrowded hospital emergency departments (EDs). Using current trends and estimates in conjunction with future population growth and climate change scenarios, we show that the increased number of hot days in the future can have a considerable impact on EDs, adding to their workload and costs. The excess number of visits in 2030 is projected to range between 98–336 and 42–127 for younger and older groups, respectively. The excess costs in 2012–13 prices are estimated to range between AU$51,000–184,000 (0–64) and AU$27,000–84,000 (65+). By 2060, these estimates will increase to 229–2300 and 145–1188 at a cost of between AU$120,000–1,200,000 and AU$96,000–786,000 for the respective age groups. Improvements in climate change mitigation and adaptation measures are likely to generate synergistic health co-benefits and reduce the impact on frontline health services.

West Nile virus (WNV), a mosquito-borne zoonosis, has emerged as a disease of public health concern in Europe. Recent outbreaks have been attributed to suitable climatic conditions for its vectors favoring transmission. However, to date, projections of the risk for WNV expansion under climate change scenarios is lacking. Here, we estimate the WNV-outbreaks risk for a set of climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. We delineate the potential risk-areas and estimate the growth in the population at risk (PAR).We used supervised machine learning classifier, XGBoost, to estimate the WNV-outbreak risk using an ensemble climate model and multi-scenario approach. The model was trained by collating climatic, socioeconomic, and reported WNV-infections data (2010−22) and the out-of-sample results (1950–2009, 2023–99) were validated using a novel Confidence-Based Performance Estimation (CBPE) method. Projections of area specific outbreak risk trends, and corresponding population at risk were estimated and compared across scenarios.Our results show up to 5-fold increase in West Nile virus (WNV) risk for 2040-60 in Europe, depending on geographical region and climate scenario, compared to 2000-20. The proportion of disease-reported European land areas could increase from 15% to 23-30%, putting 161 to 244 million people at risk. Across scenarios, Western Europe appears to be facing the largest increase in the outbreak risk of WNV. The increase in the risk is not linear but undergoes periods of sharp changes governed by climatic thresholds associated with ideal conditions for WNV vectors. The increased risk will require a targeted public health response to manage the expansion of WNV with climate change in Europe.

The availability of food is the basic entity for the survival of human. The resources that make a nation food secured is guided by multiple factors and can be evaluated using a set of indicators. We present an assessment for ranking food security of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) nations represented by Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, the Maldives, Pakistan and Sri Lanka using a set of indicators under the prevailing scenarios of climate change. The food security indicators can primarily be grouped into four dimensions represented by the availability of food, access to food, potential utilization and stability of food production. Each of the identified indicators that are independent of each other can be utilised to assign individual values based upon actual statistics and observations available for each country. The projection of these statistical values for evaluating future food security can also be done once the appropriate methodology is available for making projections. We assessed food security under the future scenarios of climate change for the year 2050 by synthesising a food security index using a set of indicators. The climate change scenarios were adopted from the IPCC (2014) assessment represented by RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. The score of individual indicators were obtained from country specific statistics provided by Food and Agriculture Organisation, World Bank while the values of few indicators such as the projected availability of agriculture and forest land, estimates of future productivity under climate change scenarios and vulnerability of food production were synthesised by the authors for this study. The assessment shows that under all RCPs, Bangladesh is the most food secured nation followed by Sri Lanka. Whereas, Maldives and Afghanistan were found to fall under least food secured SAARC nation under all four scenarios of climate change. While rest of the nations had varying ranks and represented the middle-ranking of food security under all RCPs. India was consistently at the sixth position under all four scenarios of climate change followed by Afghanistan and Maldives in a consistent manner while Afghanistan maintained the rank of seventh and Maldives was found to fall at last position of eighth rank. The framework of assessment demonstrated by us can be used for ranking individual region while it provides an opportunity to the planners for allocating adequate resources and implement other adequate measures in regions that fall short in terms of food security.

Projecting the excess mortality due to heatwave and its characteristics under climate change, population and adaptation scenarios.

Urban water management requires the identification and inclusion of demand-side solutions to complement the traditional top-down approach for supplying water services. This thesis presents an agent-based model to simulate the behaviour of the main stakeholders in urban stormwater management. The model is applied to replicate the uptake of both public and private stormwater treatment and harvesting technologies, and to explore strategies to achieve water management targets under scenarios of population growth and climate change. This tool can provide reliable policy recommendations and improve the robust planning of urban water management under different scenarios of future urban development and environmental change.

The behaviour of water between the surface and subsurface is a dynamic and intricate process, involving a complex interplay between surface water and groundwater. This interaction is vital for supporting ecosystems, providing water supplies, and ensuring the sustainable use of water resources. Disruptions in these interactions, such as over-extraction, reduced streamflow, and the impacts of climate change, contribute to water scarcity. An integrated management of surface and groundwater resources is crucial for addressing these challenges and ensuring the long-term availability and sustainability of water supplies. In this study, the spatiotemporal variations of surface and groundwater interactions were analysed using integrated SWAT and MODFLOW model using QSWATMOD plugin in QGIS software. The surface and groundwater interactions were analysed for future periods under climate and land use land cover (LULC) change scenarios. Pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon kharif, and post-monsoon rabi seasons are considered for analysing the surface and groundwater interactions. The future LULCs are projected using the DynaCLUE model for three user-defined scenarios such as past trend (scenario 1), drastic change in built-up and barren land (scenario 2), and restricted agricultural land (scenario 3). For projecting the interactions under both changing climate and LULC, LULC scenario 1 was used for near-future period, LULC scenario 2 for mid-future period, and LULC scenario 3 for far future period. Under the climate change scenario, the maximum groundwater recharge under SSP5-8.5 scenario is observed to be 20,805 m3/day in the near future, and the maximum discharge under SSP2-4.5 scenario is observed as 9,035 m3/day in the mid-future period. In both climate change and combined scenarios (both climate and user-defined LULC), there was a greater recharge of groundwater during the monsoon season relative to other seasons, while there was a greater discharge of groundwater during the post-monsoon rabi season. In the combined scenarios, the maximum discharge was under SSP5-8.5 with 15,009 m3/day in the mid-future, and the groundwater recharge was greater in the near future period under SSP3-7.0 with 19,556 m3/day. The groundwater–surface water interactions were analysed in four seasons, out of which monsoon season had the maximum recharge and groundwater discharge was more in the post-monsoon rabi season. The results found in this study’ can be used to plan and develop short-and long-term integrated surface and groundwater management strategies of the basin under changing climate and LULC.

Freshwater availability is affected by changes in climate and growth. We assessed the freshwater vulnerability for five major Korean river basins for 2015 and 2030. We used a regional climate model based on the IPCC SRES A2 scenario, US Geological Survey's Precipitation Rainfall Simulation Model, and population and industrial growth scenarios for impact assessment. The model simulation results suggest increasing spatial and temporal variations of water stress for the basins that are already developed. While freshwater is more vulnerable to growth scenarios than the climate change scenario, climate change alone could decrease mean annual runoff by 10% in four major river basins by 2030. As the first national assessment of climate change, we suggest possible adaptive water resource management and policy strategies for reducing climate related risks in Korea.

Challenge The unimpeded growth of greenhouse gas emissions is raising the earth’s temperature. The consequences include melting glaciers, more precipitation, more and more extreme weather events, and shifting seasons. The accelerating pace of climate change, combined with global population and income growth, threatens food security everywhere. Agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperatures eventually reduce yields of desirable crops while encouraging weed and pest proliferation. Changes in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of short-run crop failures and long-run production declines. Although there will be gains in some crops in some regions of the world, the overall impacts of climate change on agriculture are expected to be negative, threatening global food security. Populations in the developing world, which are already vulnerable and food insecure, are likely to be the most seriously affected. In 2005, nearly half of the economically active population in developing countries—2.5 billion people—relied on agriculture for its livelihood. Today, 75 percent of the world’s poor live in rural areas. This Food Policy Report presents research results that quantify the climate-change impacts mentioned above, assesses the consequences for food security, and estimates the investments that would offset the negative consequences for human well-being. This analysis brings together, for the first time, detailed modeling of crop growth under climate change with insights from an extremely detailed global agriculture model, using two climate scenarios to simulate future climate. The results of the analysis suggest that agriculture and human well-being will be negatively affected by climate change: * In developing countries, climate change will cause yield declines for the most important crops. South Asia will be particularly hard hit. * Climate change will have varying effects on irrigated yields across regions, but irrigated yields for all crops in South Asia will experience large declines. * Climate change will result in additional price increases for the most important agricultural crops–rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans. Higher feed prices will result in higher meat prices. As a result, climate change will reduce the growth in meat consumption slightly and cause a more substantial fall in cereals consumption. * Calorie availability in 2050 will not only be lower than in the no–climate-change scenario—it will actually decline relative to 2000 levels throughout the developing world. * By 2050, the decline in calorie availability will increase child malnutrition by 20 percent relative to a world with no climate change. Climate change will eliminate much of the improvement in child malnourishment levels that would occur with no climate change. * Thus, aggressive agricultural productivity investments of US$7.1–7.3 billion are needed to raise calorie consumption enough to offset the negative impacts of climate change on the health and well-being of children. from Text

Implementation of different strategies on the demand and supply side to deal with potential water scarcity is based on a comparison of future water demand and availability of water resources based on different scenarios of climate change and population growth. Especially, the Alpine region is characterised by many small and medium water supply systems (WSSs) having neither human resources nor time for advanced planning, requiring simple methods for estimating future development. Therefore, the aim of this work is to provide future projections of water demand, resource availability, and drinking water quality for an Alpine area based on simple approaches with minimal data requirements. As the results of the case study show, linear and polynomial regression with precipitation and temperature data can illustrate the temporal variation of system input and drinking water temperature with sufficient accuracy and is suitable for an estimation of future development. The groundwater modelling, however, requires the consideration of a non-linear term depending on the depth to obtain reasonable results. Due to the usage of open-access data and the easy approaches developed and applied, a good transferability to other case studies is expected which can provide stakeholders a first assessment of the future need for action.

Wheat is one of the world's major staple food crops, and breeding for improvement of grain yield is a priority under the scenarios of climate change and population growth. WRKY transcription factors are multifaceted regulators in plant growth, development, and responses to environmental stimuli. In this study, we identify the WRKY gene TaGSNE (Grain Size and Number Enhancer) in common wheat, and find that it has relatively high expression in leaves and roots, and is induced by multiple abiotic stresses. Eleven single-nucleotide polymorphisms were identified in TaGSNE, forming two haplotypes in multiple germplasm collections, named as TaGSNE-Hap-1 and TaGSNE-Hap-2. In a range of different environments, TaGSNE-Hap-2 was significantly associated with increases in thousand-grain weight (TGW; 3.0%) and spikelet number per spike (4.1%), as well as with deeper roots (10.1%) and increased root dry weight (8.3%) at the mid-grain-filling stage, and these were confirmed in backcross introgression populations. Furthermore, transgenic rice lines overexpressing TaGSNE had larger panicles, more grains, increased grain size, and increased grain yield relative to the wild-type control. Analysis of geographic and temporal distributions revealed that TaGSNE-Hap-2 is positively selected in China and Pakistan, and TaGSNE-Hap-1 in Europe. Our findings demonstrate that TaGSNE overcomes the trade-off between TGW/grain size and grain number, leading us to conclude that these elite haplotypes and their functional markers could be utilized in marker-assisted selection for breeding high-yielding varieties.