AbstractOil demand growth, driven by transportation sector, were affected by many variables including the number of vehicle on road, average vehicle mile travelled, average fuel economy of the vehicle stock and alternative fuels in the transportation sector. The amount of oil either avoided due to penetration of advanced technologies or replaced by consumption of alternative fuels will affect the so‐called oil consumption per vehicle (OPV) variable. This is a vital variable in forecasting oil demand in large models through vehicle stock model. This paper tries to show that by decomposing the OPV variable, the impact of alternative fuels and advanced technologies on oil demand in road transportation can be better traced. Decomposition of the US road fuel consumption shows that more than 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day will be avoided or replaced by 2035 due to the penetration of alternative fuels and advanced technology vehicles. The annual average decline rate of OPV in United States could be −1.5 per cent, −1.3 per cent and −1.1 per cent, in the high, low and medium scenarios, respectively, in the period from 2009 to 2035 depending on the past alternative and advanced technologies are penetrating. It illustrates the huge uncertainty that facing future oil demand forecast in road transportation even in the case of OPV decomposition.