The role of ICEVs, HEVs, PHEVs, BEVs and FCVs in achieving stringent CO2 targets: results from global energy systems modeling

Abstract

A modified GET model version was used to investigate long-term, cost-effective fuel and vehicle technologies for global passenger transport. The aim was to quantify the potential impact of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology and low CO2 intensity electricity from renewable sources, such as concentrating solar power (CSP), on cost-effective passenger vehicle fuel and technology options necessary to achieve stabilization of atmospheric CO2 at 450 ppm. In addition, the model was used to assess the sensitivity of future vehicle cost assumptions. For all cases investigated, there is no single technology and fuel that dominates throughout the century; instead a variety of fuels and vehicle technologies are important. The availability of CCS and CSP have a substantial impact on cost-effective fuel and technology choices, in general: (i) the introduction of CCS increases the use of coal in the energy system and conventional vehicle technology, (ii) the introduction of CSP reduces the relative cost of electricity in relation to hydrogen and tends to increase the use of electricity for transport, and (iii) the introduction of both CCS and CSP reduces the economic incentives to shift to more advanced vehicle technologies. Varying cost estimates for future vehicle technologies results in large differences in the cost-effective fuel and vehicle technology solutions. For instance, for low battery costs ($150/kWh), electrified powertrains dominate and for higher battery costs ($450/kWh), hydrogen-fueled vehicles dominate, regardless of CCS and CSP availability. The results highlight the importance of a multi-sector approach and the importance of pursuing research and development of multiple fuel and vehicle technologies.