Sustainable Mobility: Using a Global Energy Model to Inform Vehicle Technology Choices in a Decarbonized Economy

Erica Klampfl,Margaret Whalen,Timothy Wallington,Maria Grahn

doi:10.3390/su5051845

Abstract

The reduction of CO2 emissions associated with vehicle use is an important element of a global transition to sustainable mobility and is a major long-term challenge for society. Vehicle and fuel technologies are part of a global energy system, and assessing the impact of the availability of clean energy technologies and advanced vehicle technologies on sustainable mobility is a complex task. The global energy transition (GET) model accounts for interactions between the different energy sectors, and we illustrate its use to inform vehicle technology choices in a decarbonizing economy. The aim of this study is to assess how uncertainties in future vehicle technology cost, as well as how developments in other energy sectors, affect cost-effective fuel and vehicle technology choices. Given the uncertainties in future costs and efficiencies for light-duty vehicle and fuel technologies, there is no clear fuel/vehicle technology winner that can be discerned at the present time. We conclude that a portfolio approach with research and development of multiple fuel and vehicle technology pathways is the best way forward to achieve the desired result of affordable and sustainable personal mobility. The practical ramifications of this analysis are illustrated in the portfolio approach to providing sustainable mobility adopted by the Ford Motor Company.

Highlights

Global climate change, caused by increasing levels of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the Earth’s atmosphere resulting from human activities [1] is a major issue of current concern
To provide a tool for decision makers, we developed a global energy model (GET-RC 6.1) that includes a detailed description of passenger vehicle technology options [5,8,9,10,11,12,13] (Details of the scientific studies behind the mathematical representation of the global energy transition (GET) model are provided by Azar et al [8,9,10])
We have investigated the sensitivity of the results to seven different input parameters: CO2 stabilization target concentration, battery cost ($/kWh), H2 storage cost ($/GJ), fuel cell stack cost ($/kW), natural gas storage cost ($/GJ), availability of carbon capture and storage (CCS), and availability of concentrating solar power

Summary

Introduction

Global climate change, caused by increasing levels of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the Earth’s atmosphere resulting from human activities [1] is a major issue of current concern. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has been ratified by 192 countries and calls for stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would ―prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system‖ [2]. In this study we follow CO2 reduction curves presented by Wigley et al [4] consistent with stabilization of CO2 concentration in the Earth’s atmosphere at various levels, mainly focusing on 450 parts per million (ppm). Since the curve towards 450 ppm has a similar relative reduction in CO2 emissions as the CO2-eq emissions presented by Rogelj et al [3], we assume that these CO2 emissions are broadly in line with those having an approximately 50% chance of meeting the two degree target

Objectives

Results

Conclusion