Rising China and Emergent India in the 21st Century: Friends or Rivals?

Abstract

Abstract This paper is written from the perspective of a historian who is aware of the 20th century roots of current problems between the two Asian giants, as well as their tremendous contributions to world civilization and Asian prosperity in the past, and hopefully in the future. The paper analyzes issues troubling India-China relations, such as the unresolved boundary question, sensitivity on matters of international status, and mutual perceptions of threat arising from fears of encirclement. It shows how the two governments have made tremendous progress in overcoming or mitigating these problems, and in establishing strong human and economic ties between the two fastest growing economies in the world. Pakistan continues to be a wild card with a negative impact on India-China as well as India-U.S. relations, but its capacity to create trouble may have been reduced by its own internal problems, as well as progress in the India-Pakistan composite peace process. The United States remains the preponderant military and economic global power, despite recent damage to its moral influence, and all countries, including China and India, try to cultivate close relations with it. Both India and China are engaged with Southeast Asia and with other Asian countries, and each has close and complex relations with the United States. The author sees a low risk of military conflict between India and China and a high desirability of international cooperation among all three in tackling the many facets of human security in the 21st century.