Abstract
Novel strategic technologies are posing major challenges to Asian security. These disruptive systems include high-precision and hypersonic delivery vehicles, advanced cyber capabilities, and space weaponry. The proliferation of these new capabilities among states could complicate military planning, reduce strategic predictability, and decrease crisis stability by amplifying preemption incentives. Developments regarding these technologies have already contributed to the collapse of longstanding arms control agreements and have raised dangers of miscalculations or misperceptions that could lead to inadvertent escalation. Yet, revisionist powers in Asia―such as China, Russia, and North Korea―perceive these strategic technologies as helping them realize their theory of victory. In particular, they hope to employ them to negate superior U.S. conventional forces to secure important gains in a limited conflict through multi-domain coercion, while managing escalation dynamics to prevent an all-out war. Chinese, Russian, and DPRK strategists see having strong offensive capabilities as their best means of crippling U.S. military alliances in Asia. Indeed, these strike systems enhance the anti-access/ area-denial barriers these Asian land powers have erected to keep U.S. forces from reinforcing U.S. allies and partners. Fortunately, emerging strategic technologies can enhance U.S. alliances in Asia in critical ways, while some of their potentially destabilizing impacts can be mitigated by managing competition and reducing the risks of miscalculations in these domains.
Published Version
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