Potential yield of world maize under global warming based on ARIMA-TR model

Abstract

With continuous increase of population and demand for nutritional food, analyzing potential yield of world maize affected by global warming is of great significance to direct the crop production in the future. Thus, in this paper both average and top (national) yields of world maize between 2021 and 2030 are projected creatively using ARIMA-TR (Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average and Trend Regression) model based on historic yields since 1961. The impact of global warming on the yields of world maize from 1961 to 2020 was analyzed using unary regression model. Our study concludes that between 2021 and 2030, average yield of world maize is projected to be from 5989 kg ha-1 to 6703 kg ha-1 while the top yield from 36530 kg ha-1 to 44271 kg ha-1, or the average ranging from 16.39% decreasingly to 15.14% of the top; from 1961 to 2020 global warming exerts positive effect on average yield of world maize less than on the top, which partly drives the gap between these two yields widened gradually; for world maize by 2030, the opportunities for improving global production should be mainly dependent on the advantage of high-yield countries.