Projecting Average and Top Yields of Six Major Food Crops Worldwide by 2030

Abstract

AbstractBased on the variation trends of average and top (national) yields of such six major crops as rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed worldwide from 1961 to 2019 (the topic in Chap. 2), their futures by 2030 are projected respectively using ARIMA model and trend-regressed model to evaluate the gap between the yield and potential limit to direct the crop production towards global food security in that future. In 2020–2030: Using trend-regressed model, average yield of world rice is optimally projected to be from 4793 to 5195 kg/ha while the top yield from 10,105 to 10,269 kg/ha, which alludes that the average would be increasingly reaching over 50% of potential limit or the gap between these two kinds of yield would be narrowing; Using trend-regressed model, average yield of world wheat is optimally projected to be from 3479 to 3817 kg/ha while the top yield from 9856 to 10,042 kg/ha, which indicates that the average would be increasingly approaching 40% of potential limit or the gap between these two kinds of yield would be shrinking; Using trend-regressed model, average yield of world maize is optimally projected to be from 5937 to 6748 kg/ha while the top yield from 36,711 to 46,022 kg/ha, which reveals that the average would be decreasingly approaching 14% of potential limit or the gap between these two kinds of yield would be widening; Using ARIMA(1,1,1) model average yield of world potato is optimally projected to be from 20,430 to 22,378 kg/ha while using trend-regressed model the top yield from 50,070 to 51,422 kg/ha, which means that the average would be increasingly approaching 40% of potential limit or the gap between these two kinds of yield would be narrowing; Using trend-regressed model, average yield of world soybean is optimally projected to be from 2776 to 3071 kg/ha while the top yield from 4104 to 4237 kg/ha, which represents that the average would be increasingly reaching over 70% of potential limit or the gap between these two kinds of yield would be obviously closing; Using trend-regressed model, average yield of world rapeseed is optimally projected to be from 2155 to 2453 kg/ha while the top yield from 4178 to 4273 kg/ha, which shows that the average would be increasingly approaching 60% of potential limit or the gap between these two kinds of yield would be narrowing.