Land use/land cover dynamics in response to various driving forces in Didessa sub-basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

This study analyzes land use/land cover dynamics in response to socioeconomic, political and climatic forces in the Didessa sub-basin of Blue Nile, Ethiopia for 1974–2014 using remote sensing, field observation and information from local people. A rapid reduction of wetland (97.5%), grass land (76%), forest land (50.6%) and shrub land (38.2%) took place in four decades (1974–2014). On the other hand, settlement increased extraordinarily (17,960.8%), while the size of cultivated land increased more than a fold (44.2%). Commercial farm land increased more than fivefold (414.4%). According to key informants, major events that largely explain the changes include: (1) drought and social unrest (e.g. Conflict and war); (2) demographic factors (resettlement and migration); (3) land tenure reform and political changes; (4) economic factors and decline in agricultural productivity. If the present land use/land cover changes continue coupled with climate change, people’s livelihoods will be highly affected and agricultural production system will be under increasing threat. This study suggests the restructuring of land use planning supposed to be based on land suitability and sustainable protection of fragile environments. These findings contribute to the understanding of patterns of the dynamics of historical land use change to predict the future dynamics at landscape scale to contribute for effective management strategies and policies for the rational use of land and land related resources.