Detecting spatial and spatio-temporal clusters of rape in India, 2011–2020

Abstract

The study aims to identify the spatial and spatio-temporal patterns of rape in India from 2011 to 2020 using crime data aggregated at the district level. The study also tries to understand persistent patterns in the spatial variation of rape incidence across the country during the study period. The annual rape data from 2011 to 2020 were extracted from the National Crime Records Bureau. Retrospective spatial and temporal cluster analyses were performed using the purely spatial (Kulldorff’s and Mann–Whitney scan statistic) and space–time scan statistic (Kulldorff’s based on the discrete Poisson model). Cluster frequency analysis was performed. Results showed the spatial heterogeneity in the pattern of rape crime across the country as well as its localization among geographically contiguous regions across time and space. The detected primary spatial clusters (P < 0.05) persisted mainly in the Central, North, and North Eastern zones of the country over the ten year study period. The primary spatio-temporal cluster (LLR = 5560.09, P < 0.001) appeared between the time frame 2014 to 2016 and was concentrated mainly in the Northern zone. Thirty-seven districts of India (5.78%) contributed to spatial clusters in all years of the study period. The heterogeneous distribution of rape across India could be due to the spatio-temporal variations in the determinants of rape (such as socioeconomic status, demographics, urbanisation, and gender equality) across the country. Identification of the localized rape clusters could result in understanding the contextual factors of rape and, thereby be beneficial to national and regional rape control strategies.