Cryo-social dynamics: the interplay of glacial dynamics and socioeconomic conditions in the Shigar Valley, Karakoram, Pakistan

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Abstract Mountain communities globally are experiencing increasing challenges as climate-induced glacier changes disrupt water resources and agricultural systems. The Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayan region of Pakistan has been witnessing environmental changes over the last few decades with widespread impacts on different sectors of life. In the Shigar Valley of the Karakoram region, communities face socio-economic challenges partly attributed to changes in glacier dynamics, which directly affect water availability and agricultural productivity. This study investigates the impacts of glacial changes on community livelihoods by integrating glacier modeling with a comprehensive socioeconomic survey. Glaciological change was analyzed from 1970 to 2020 using the Open Global Glacier Model, with projections under SSP-126, SSP-370, and SSP-585 scenarios for 2020–2100. Glacier mass balance simulations driven by historical climatological data from 1970 to 2020 reveal an overall negative trend, despite shorter periods of glacier growth driven by regional hydroclimatic anomalies. Future projections indicate glacier volume could decline by over 60% under SSP-585 by 2100, compared to approximately 30% under SSP-126. A questionnaire survey was conducted across 20 villages, engaging 375 respondents to understand the extent of dependence on glacier-fed resources, migration dynamics, and adaptive strategies to socioenvironmental conditions. The findings reveal that while 42% of respondents reported high dependence on glacier-fed and snow melt, 46% are facing challenges due to irregular water supplies. These challenges have been affecting the socio-economic fabric of the community as 71% of respondents reported that migrations were driven by declining local productivity, with 66% of migration destinations being international. The communities are aware of the challenges, and they have been adopting various strategies to cope with it. These include rainfed farming (32%), adoption of drought-resistant crops (19%), and expansion into proglacial (recently deglaciated areas and areas closer to glaciers’ termini) lands (52%).