Evaluation of future wind power potential and their projected changes in the Black Sea and possible stable locations for wind farms

Abstract

This study aimed to evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on the wind power potential and assign possible stable locations in the Black Sea until the end of the 21st century. The wind fields simulated by a regional climate model (Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model, version RCA4) were analyzed considering two future periods (2021–2060, 2061–2100) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The temporal variability of the wind power density (WPD) was investigated using both spatial and local analyses for the future period (2021–2100). Three temporal variability indices (namely the coefficient of variation (CV), monthly (MV), and seasonal variability (SV)) were in agreement that the mean WPD in the eastern basin is significantly more variable than in other parts of the basin. Considering the impact of climate change, the future projections for both climate scenarios indicate changes, and the eastern basin will experience more changes under the RCP8.5 scenario. For the most predictable future developments of the wind power potential, 15 reference points along the Black Sea were analyzed using the intra- and inter-annual variability of the mean WPD. In the future, strong, durable, and stable wind resources in the western basin will ensure reliable, permanent, and sustainable WPD.