Chapter 4 - Identification of critical infrastructure accident consequences

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The methods of identification of unknown parameters of models of the process of initiating events, the process of environment threats, and the process of environment degradation are proposed. There are methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the models of these processes and identifying distributions of their conditional sojourn times at their changing in time states. Particularly, for each process, there are given the formulae estimating probabilities of staying at particular states at the initial moment, of transitions between states, the parameters and forms of distributions fixed for the description of conditional sojourn times at states, and the mean values of conditional sojourn times at states having these distribution. The states for considering particular processes are introduced, and next, the mentioned methods and procedures are applied to the identification of particular processes that are parts of the general model of critical-infrastructure-accident consequences at the Baltic Sea and world sea waters.