Complex Technical System Operation Processes Identification

Abstract

AbstractThe methods of identification of the operation processes of complex technical systems are presented. These are methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the system operation process, semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the conditional system operation process sojourn times at the operation states. The formulae estimating the probabilities of the system operation process straying at the operation states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the system operation process transitions between the operation states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the system operation process conditional sojourn times at the operation states are given. Namely, the parameters of the uniform distribution, the triangular distribution, the double trapezium distribution, the quasi-trapezium distribution, the exponential distribution, the Weibull’s distribution and the chimney distribution are estimated using the statistical methods such as the method of moments and the maximum likelihood method. The chi-square goodness-of-fit test is described and proposed to be applied for verifying the hypotheses about these distributions, choice validity. The procedure of statistical data sets, uniformity analysis based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is proposed to be applied to the empirical conditional sojourn times at the operation states coming from different realizations of the same complex technical system operation process. The applications of the proposed statistical methods of the unknown parameters, identification of the complex technical system operation process model for determining the operation parameters of the exemplary system, the port oil transportartion system and the maritime ferry technical system are presented. The procedure of testing the uniformity of statistical data sets is applied to the realizations of the conditional sojourn times at the operation states of the ferry technical system collected at two different operating conditions.KeywordsUnknown ParameterOperation StateSystem OperationSojourn TimeTechnical SystemThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.