Chapter 5 - Prediction of critical infrastructure accident consequences

Abstract

The general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences is adapted to the prediction of critical infrastructure accident consequences at the Baltic Sea and world sea waters through the determining the characteristics of the processes of initiating events, environment threats, and environment degradation such as unconditional mean sojourn times, limit values of transient probabilities staying at their states, and approximate mean values of sojourn total times at particular states for the fixed time. Finally, applying the expression for total probability, the unconditional transient probabilities and mean values of sojourn total times of the joint process linking the processes of initiating events, environment threats, and environment degradation at particular states, for the fixed sufficiently large time, are fined.