Циклы на российском рынке труда: теоретический аспект

Abstract

This article presents the research methodology of cyclical fluctuations, which observed on the Russian labor market. The paper defines cyclical fluctuations as reactions of labor market macroparameters, expressed in variations of trend-cycles from trend. It introduced a conceptual framework, appropriate for studying cyclical fluctuations. Proposed methodological approach to the study of cyclical fluctuations on the Russian labor market includes: the choice of labor market macroparameters with an account of Russian statistics’ limitations; the decomposition of time series data; the construction of models using statistical methods and econometric tools; the identification of cyclical reaction’s key points (entry point, point bottom and the starting point of recovery), its depth and duration; and, after all, the comparative analysis of cyclical and seasonal variations of time series data. Presented methodology allows evaluating the presence of Russian labor market macroparameters’ cyclical reactions and analyzing how significantly different the cyclical nature of the Russian labor market from traditional models of labor market’s cyclical reaction.