MODELING THE IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT AND IMPORTS ON EMPLOYMENT IN RUSSIA

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to assess the impact of technological development and international trade on the level and structure of employment in Russian regions for the period of 2005-2019. The structure of employment is measured in terms of education level, sectoral specialization, and gender of the employed population. The contribution of the work to the scientific literature is expressed in three aspects. First, we empirically estimate the relationship between imports and employment structure. Second, we attempt to econometrically identify the impact of technological development on several indicators of regional employment. Third, we consider the joint impact of technological development and international trade in the estimated models on employment due to the complementarity of these factors. Based on a systemic generalized method of moments we reveal that technological development has: 1) a positive effect on the share of the employed specializing in mining industry, in the activities of hotels and public catering; 2) a negative impact on the share of the employed with secondary vocational and secondary general education, in agriculture, logistics, health care sectors. In terms of demographic indicators, a similar negative impact of technological development on the employment rate of women and men was obtained. At the same time, with growing total imports in the regions the threat of job losses for the employed with secondary vocational and secondary general education, the urban population, as well as those specializing in healthcare sector increases. Expenditures on fundamental research through the innovative development of regions are a factor in job creation. Technological development and foreign economic openness of the region are associated with greater adaptation of the employed population to competition in international trade and technological development.